投资建议：江中药业是高分红+优质品牌OTC 企业，聚焦胃肠领域，补充完善咽喉咳喘、补益、康复、营养等品类，通过“内生+外延”双轮驱动，积极探索线上渠道。我们看好公司未来通过品类扩张和渠道加强带来的营收增长和华润管理体系下的协同优化。预计公司2024-2026 年实现营收42.75/47.56/54.25 亿元，分别同比增长-3%/11%/14%；实现归母净利润7.95/9.02/10.38 亿元，分别同比增长12%/13%/15%；对应PE 估值分别为18/16/14X，维持“增持”评级。Incident: On January 1, the company released the second restricted stock incentive plan (revised draft). It intends to grant no more than 6.877 million shares to incentive recipients, accounting for 1.09% of the company's total share capital. The incentive target is no more than 170 people, and the grant price is 13.70 yuan/share.
Equity incentives raise performance assessment targets. According to the minimum requirements of the revised draft, net profit due to mother for 2025-2027 was 0.888/0.995/1.114 billion yuan respectively. Compared with the first draft, the net profit target for 2025-2026 was increased by 0.116/0.153 billion yuan respectively. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.972 billion yuan (yoy -8.19%) and achieved net profit of 0.634 billion yuan (yoy +7.09%). The revenue side was pressured by factors such as a high base in 2023, failure to win bids for some prescription drug products, poor overall consumption, and poor health growth. In addition, the revised draft requires no less than 15.42% per year, up 1.82pct from the first draft. The return on invested capital for the first three quarters of 2023/2024 was 15.91%/14.55%, respectively. Overall, the increase in the company's equity incentive targets shows that the State Assets Administration Commission has higher expectations for the company's future development. We expect the company to increase the integration and utilization of internal and external resources and improve capital utilization.
Added tasks related to the industrial chain to help China Resources Group build a chain leader. In recent years, the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission has made continuous efforts to push central enterprises to build “chain leaders” of the modern industrial chain and improve the resilience and safety level of key industrial chains. By the end of 2022, the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission had selected 16 “chain leaders” in two batches to take the initiative to lay out the layout in important industries and key areas. According to the “State-owned Assets Report”, China Resources Group proposed 10 major projects, 33 key tasks, and 93 specific measures for 10 pain points limiting the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, 18 areas that urgently need to be repaired, and 17 long board nodes. As China Resources Group's first-level profit center, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical has added tasks related to the industrial chain, which is expected to help China Resources Group build a chain leader.
Investment advice: Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical is a high-dividend+high-quality brand OTC enterprise. It focuses on the gastrointestinal field, complements and perfects categories such as cough, cough, rehabilitation, nutrition, etc., and actively explores online channels through “endogenous+epitaxial” two-wheel drive. We are optimistic about the company's future revenue growth and collaborative optimization under China Resources's management system through category expansion and channel strengthening. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 4.275/4.756/5.425 billion yuan in 2024-2026, up -3%/11%/14% year on year; achieve net profit due to mother 0.795/0.902/1.038 billion yuan, up 12%/13%/15% year on year, respectively; and the corresponding PE valuation is 18/16/14X, respectively, maintaining an “increase” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; policy risk; increased industry competition; risk of cost fluctuations; product promotion falling short of expectations; R&D risk.
