On January 2nd, local time in the USA, Tesla released its Q4 2024 global production and delivery report.

In 2024, Tesla's global delivery of Autos was 1.79 million units, lower than 1.8 million units in 2023, and also below the consensus expectation of 1.8 million units from Analysts. This marks the first year-over-year decline in annual sales for Tesla since 2015.

As a result of this news, Tesla's stock in the USA fell sharply at the opening, ultimately closing down by 6.08%, with a Market Cap loss of 78.8 billion USD (approximately 577.05 billion RMB). Over the past five trading days, Tesla has accumulated a decline of nearly 18%.

Earlier reports indicated that there were incidents involving Autos colliding and exploding in two locations in the USA, one of which involved a Tesla Cybertruck.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on Social Media that Tesla has confirmed the explosion of a Cybertruck outside the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas was caused by giant fireworks and/or a bomb and was not related to the vehicle itself.

Sales have declined for the first time in 10 years.

Data shows that Tesla's total sales for 2024 will be 1.79 million units, a decrease of 1.1% compared to 2023's 1.81 million units, marking Tesla's first annual sales decline since 2015.

In the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 495,570 units, setting a new record, but falling short of the estimated 512,277 units. Among them, Tesla Model 3/Y deliveries were 471,930 units, estimated at 484,575 units. Weak consumer demand is dragging down electric vehicle sales, and Trump’s push to control electric vehicle incentives may exacerbate the problem.

From a global market perspective, Tesla remains dominant in North America, but due to overcapacity, inventory backlogs are starting to appear; in the European market, due to the strong rise of automakers like Volkswagen, Tesla has seen a decline of over 10%, especially in November, when Volkswagen overtook Tesla, losing the title of Europe’s best-selling single electric vehicle model; in the Chinese market, Tesla remains strong, with annual growth exceeding 8%, frequently reducing prices for promotions, which has stabilized the market for Tesla in China.

In terms of specific models, Tesla Model Y remains the best-selling pure electric vehicle in the world, but the Cybertruck has not yet met expectations.

Regarding 2025, in the latest conference call, Musk predicted that Tesla's vehicle sales will grow by 20%-30% next year; the Cybercab will achieve large-scale production in 2026, with a target of producing at least 2 million units annually.

Guggenheim Analyst Ronald Jewsikow wrote in a report on Thursday: "Today's delivery results might be slightly negative, but bulls may continue to defend the AI story."

We believe that the delivery results highlight that a significant portion (if not all) of the growth in vehicle sales in 2025 will come from new affordable models, which still face difficulties in establishing a model given limited details in pricing, functionality, or timing.

Tesla will announce its financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 after the market closes on January 29, 2025 (Wednesday).

Wall Street's general predictions show that the company's fourth quarter revenue will reach a record 99.7 billion dollars, but the Net income is expected to be 8.1 billion dollars, which may be the worst quarter of profitability since 2021.

Trump's bet.

In 2024, Tesla's stock performed strongly overall, with shares rising more than 60% after Trump's election, supported by Musk.

This marks a significant shift compared to the first quarter. In the first quarter, Tesla's share price plummeted 29%, marking the worst performance since 2022.

Despite Tesla's price cuts and promotional measures, sales are still declining. In the Tesla first quarter Earnings Reports conference call held in April, CEO Elon Musk stated that although he expects 'this year's sales to be higher than last year,' the growth rate will slow from 38% in 2023.

Tesla's Autopilot and 'Full Self-Driving' technology has not yet achieved full autonomy and is under strict scrutiny due to lawsuits, investigations by U.S. traffic safety regulators, and criminal investigations by the Department of Justice.

Tesla also faces fierce competition from traditional Auto Manufacturers, including General Motors, Ford, Rivian, as well as China's BYD, South Korea's Hyundai, and European automotive giants BMW and Volkswagen.

Additionally, the Trump team is considering canceling the $7,500 tax credit policy for consumers purchasing electric vehicles, a move that could exacerbate the slowdown in the USA's transition to electric vehicles.

Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments, stated: "Interestingly, even though people are aware that the tax credits may be eliminated in 2025, their sales have also declined this year. This does not seem to be accelerating anything, and there may be a reason for that."