Analyst Says It's 'Unusual' For 'Santa Claus Rally' To Fizzle Out, But That Was The Case Last Year Too: 'Anything Is Possible' On Wall Street
Analyst Says It's 'Unusual' For 'Santa Claus Rally' To Fizzle Out, But That Was The Case Last Year Too: 'Anything Is Possible' On Wall Street
The absence of the traditional "Santa Claus rally" has caught the attention of financial experts. This rally, typically observed at the end of the year, has not materialized, prompting discussions among analysts.
傳統的「聖誕老人反彈」缺席引起了金融專家的關注。通常在年底觀察到的這一反彈並未出現，這引發了分析師之間的討論。
What Happened: Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, noted the "unusual" absence of the Santa Claus rally, a trend often seen at year-end, Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. Historically, when the S&P 500 experienced this rally, it averaged a 10.4% gain in the new year, based on CFRA Research data since 1945.
發生了什麼：Janney Montgomery Scott的首席投資策略師Mark Luschini指出「異常」的聖誕老人反彈缺失，《華爾街日報》週四報道。歷史上，當標普500指數經歷這一反彈時，基於CFRA研究自1945年以來的數據，新年平均上漲10.4%。
Even without a year-end rally, the S&P 500 generally sees an average annual gain of 5.7%. However, in 2024, the index returned over 23%, breaking an eight-year streak of aligning with this trend.
即使沒有年末反彈，標普500通常也會看到平均年增幅爲5.7%。然而，在2024年，該指數的回報超過了23%，打破了與這一趨勢對齊的八年記錄。
Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners, said, "It's markets, right? So anything is possible," said Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners.
GammaRoad Capital Partners的管理合夥人Jordan Rizzuto說：「市場就是這樣，對吧？所以任何事情都有可能。」
Why It Matters: Santa Rally fizzling out is not a new phenomenon. 2023 experienced a similar instance with market analyst Martin Tillier highlighted this in his op-ed, noting significant losses at the start of 2024.
重要性：聖誕反彈的消失並不是新現象。2023年也經歷了類似的情況，市場分析師Martin Tillier在他的專欄中強調，2024年初出現了重大損失。
Traditionally, the Santa Claus rally refers to stock market gains during the last five trading days of one year and the first two of the next. However, 2024 saw a deviation from the pattern, with futures signaling further declines, as reported by Nasdaq.
傳統上，聖誕老人反彈指的是在一年最後五個交易日及下一個年份的前兩個交易日的股市漲幅。然而，2024年偏離了這一模式，期貨信號顯示進一步下滑，納斯達克報道了這一情況。
Tiller suggested that the rally's absence might be due to market expectations already factoring in anticipated good news for the first half of the year. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts were believed to bolster the rally, but the market's pullback suggested otherwise.
Tillier建議反彈缺失可能是由於市場預期已將預期中的好消息計入2024年上半年的原因。人們認爲，聯邦儲備銀行預計的減息將會促進反彈，但市場的回調則暗示情況並非如此。
The absence of the Santa Claus rally has raised questions about its impact on the market. In December, the S&P 500 index experienced a 14% increase, buoyed by a dovish Federal Reserve. However, a sudden 1.4% drop left investors puzzled.
聖誕老人反彈的缺失引發了人們對其對市場影響的質疑。在12月，標普500指數經歷了14%的增長，受到溫和的聯邦儲備支持。然而，突然的1.4%下跌讓投資者感到困惑。
Concerns about the potential disruption of the Santa Claus rally were also highlighted by Lawrence G. McMillan, a seasoned trader. He warned of a possible "Grinch pinch" impacting this seasonal market phenomenon. Despite positive market indicators, McMillan cautioned that the market remains within a broad trading range, with significant resistance and support levels.
關於聖誕老人反彈可能遭遇干擾的擔憂也得到了經驗豐富的交易員勞倫斯·G·麥克米蘭的強調。他警告稱可能出現"格林奇夾擊"，影響這一季節性市場現象。儘管市場指標積極，麥克米蘭仍然警告市場仍處於一個廣泛的交易區間內，存在顯著的支撐位和壓力位。
Price Action: According to Benzinga Pro, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) dropped 2.91% in the past month, while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) was down 0.79% during the same period.
價格走勢：根據Benzinga Pro的數據顯示，SPDR 標普500指數ETF（紐交所：SPY）在過去一個月下跌了2.91%，而納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克：QQQ）在同一期間下跌了0.79%。
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免責聲明：此內容部分由Benzinga Neuro生成，並由Benzinga編輯審核和發佈。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
