Introduction to this report:

The company successfully concluded in 2024, continued to cultivate within the province in 2025, and there is still room for structural growth outside the province; the return of liquor consumption attributes is a trend in the long term, and the weight of channels and price positions is rising, and Furui's advantage is prominent.

Key investment points:

Investment advice: Maintain the “Overweight” rating and maintain the target price of 219.26 yuan. Maintaining the profit forecast, the 2024-26 EPS is expected to be 10.66 yuan, 12.06 yuan, and 13.41 yuan, respectively.

2024 comes to a steady end, and the advantages are growing. The company still showed high-quality growth in 2024. Among them, the channel advantage within Anhui Province was expanding, the product structure continued to rise, and the share within the province continued to increase; the overseas markets of Lu, Yu, and Jiangsu continued to increase, and the Yangtze River Delta market still showed relatively high growth; in 2024, the company benefited from a forward sales pace, high overall task completion, and 2024Q4 control was effective. Currently, inventory in the province is still below the overall level of the same price, and the product still has a turnover advantage.

Starting from 2025, we will continue to maintain high-quality growth. In 2025, the company will continue to maintain high-quality growth and prioritize market order during the period. It is expected that the provincial market will take on more growth. Among them, Gujing will still lead the product structure in 8, 16, and 20 years; the market outside the province is expected to continue to increase. Among them, the Jiangsu and Henan markets focus relatively on channel order, and the Shandong and Yangtze River Delta regions are still in a state of channel expansion. The company can still achieve a leading sales pace under the deep distribution model, and it is expected that the probability will continue to grow under the high base of 2024Q1. The original pulp series is still in the first half of the product life cycle. Considering the scale effect of the single product and the optimization of organizational efficiency, there is still room for improvement in the company's cost ratio during the period.

The industry pattern was reshaped in the new cycle, and Furui stood out. Currently, the industry is still in a state of accelerated storage, and the demand side is still the dominant contradiction. Under the rebalance between supply and demand, the decline in liquor consumption prices and share concentration are still a trend. In the long run, the return of liquor consumption attributes and weakening luxury attributes are a trend, and the price position and channel power of individual products are rising in weight in competition; we believe that the improvement of the Gujing Gongjiu product line can smoothly hedge the impact of consumer differentiation. The single-product effect of the original pulp series continues to be prominent; considering that there is still room for improvement in the company's rates, we are optimistic about the certainty of Gujing's performance.

Risk factors: food safety, industrial policy adjustments, etc.