盈利预测与投资评级：由于公司主要产品单体及高分子行业竞争激烈，公司采取降价抢份额策略，且公司膜产品拓展情况不及预期，盈利水平受到影响，我们下调公司2024-2025 年归母净利润分别0.3、0.4 亿元（此前预计1.0、1.4 亿元），新增预测2026 年归母净利润0.45 亿元，按2024年12 月27 日收盘价，对应2024-2026 年的PE 分别54、40、36 倍。考虑到公司募投项目逐步投产，以及公司安庆项目在页岩油开采领域的拓展完善，公司核心竞争力进一步提升，我们看好公司发展前景，维持“买入”评级。Incident: Since the official commencement of the Anqing project in November 2023, it has progressed smoothly. The main structure of the first phase of the project has been capped, and related production equipment is being prepared according to the plan. By the end of 2024, equipment related to the Anqing project was being installed and installed one after another.
Market competition is fierce, and the company's performance is under pressure: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.17 billion yuan (-2.4% year over year), net profit of 0.02 billion yuan (-46% year over year), and net profit not to mother of 0.02 billion yuan (-53% year over year). Among them, 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 0.41 billion yuan (-3.5% YoY, +21.5% month-on-month), net profit to mother of 0.002 billion yuan (-119% YoY, -117% month-on-month), and net profit of non-return to mother of 0.004 billion yuan (-161% YoY, -153% month-on-month).
To build a complete industrial chain, the Anqing project can be expected in the future: Femiao Technology has a complete industrial chain of “functional monomers - water-soluble polymers - applied products - applied technology services” to achieve business collaboration and strong overall competitiveness. 1) Industrial chain advantages: Meet the differentiated needs of customers through the “core technology, core raw materials, and core production line” technology model; 2) Technical advantages: having R&D and production advantages of functional monomers and water-soluble polymers to achieve upstream and downstream technology exchange; 3) Customer resources and brand advantages: deeply involved in the water-based industry for many years, and have accumulated a large number of customers in the fields of pulp and paper, water treatment, oil and gas extraction, mineral processing, etc. In addition, the company's new 0.445 million ton water-soluble polymer and supporting functional monomer project in Anqing not only further enhances the company's industrial chain integration advantages, but also provides the company with a richer range of product categories and combinations when entering new business fields such as oil and gas extraction and mineral processing.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Due to intense competition in the company's main product unit and polymer industry, the company adopted a price reduction strategy, and the company's membrane product expansion fell short of expectations, and the profit level was affected. We lowered the company's net profit to the mother for 2024-2025 by 0.03 and 0.04 billion yuan respectively (previously estimated 0.1 and 0.14 billion yuan), and added a net profit forecast of 0.045 billion yuan to the mother in 2026, according to the closing price on December 27, 2024, corresponding to 2024- PE in 2026 was 54, 40, and 36 times, respectively. Considering the gradual commissioning of the company's fund-raising project and the expansion and improvement of the company's Anqing project in the field of shale oil extraction, the company's core competitiveness has further improved. We are optimistic about the company's development prospects and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, the risk of increased market competition and changes in demand, and the risk of projects under construction falling short of expectations.
