Three Reasons To Look At IHH In 2025: Maybank IB
Three Reasons To Look At IHH In 2025: Maybank IB
Despite its strong share price performance YTD of >+20%, Maybank said it believes there are still reasons to track IHH Healthcare in 2025. The house noted that IHH has clear growth drivers ahead of it, leveraging on higher demand and revenue intensity, especially in India and Malaysia. Valuations are also ripe for a re-rating, in our view.
儘管Year-to-Date（YTD）的股價表現強勁，超過20%，Maybank表示仍有理由關注IHH醫療保健集團在2025年的發展。該機構指出，IHH面臨明確的增長驅動因素，利用對印度和馬來西亞的更高需求與營業收入密度。我們認爲估值也已成熟，準備重新評級。
The house also said the healthcare group remains focused on organic and opportunistic inorganic growth. Maybank expects IHH to deliver 3-year forward revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 13% and resumed coverage with BUY and SOTP-based TP of MYR7.97.
該機構還表示，該醫療集團將專注於有機與機會型的非有機增長。Maybank預計IHH將在未來三年實現營業收入和EBITDA年複合增長率爲13%，並恢復覆蓋給予買入評級和基於SOTP的目標價爲7.97馬幣。
Three reasons to look at IHH in 2025
Maybank said it likes IHH as the current demographic shift towards wealthier and ageing populations will drive growth in admissions and revenue intensity, securing long-term growth for private healthcare operators such as IHH. History has also evidenced that private healthcare is also a defensive industry in addition to being a growing one. Furthermore, we gather that IHH's valuations are ripe for a re-rating in 2025 with the touted listing of Sunway Healthcare and Columbia Asia Healthcare. Key risks are negative regulatory changes, valuation de-rating and a stronger MYR.
關注IHH醫療保健集團的三個理由
Maybank表示，IHH受益於當前向更富裕及老齡化人口的結構性轉變，將推動入院人數與營業收入密度的增長，爲IHH等私人醫療運營商帶來長期增長。歷史也證明，私人醫療不僅是一個增長型行業，還是一個防禦性行業。此外，我們了解到IHH的估值在2025年即將迎來重新評級，尤其是在Sunway醫療保健和Columbia Asia醫療保健的上市提議中。主要風險來自負面的監管變化、估值下降以及馬幣走強。
Growth opportunities – organic and inorganic
Maybank forecasts IHH to record 3-year forward revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 13%. It expects India and Malaysia to chart the most robust 3-year forward EBITDA CAGRs of 20% and 19% driven by bed expansion plans and acquisition of Island Hospital in the case of Malaysia. Singapore will experience EBITDA margin compression in FY25E due to the renovation of Mount Elizabeth Hospital but expects it to normalise in FY26E. IHH will remain selective on M&As with key criteria being EPS and ROAE accretive while maintaining a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 3.0x.
增長機會 – 有機與非有機
Maybank預測IHH將在未來三年實現營業收入和EBITDA年複合增長率爲13%。它預計印度和馬來西亞將呈現最強勁的3年EBITDA年複合增長率，分別達到20%和19%，這主要得益於牀位擴展計劃和馬來西亞Island Hospital的收購。新加坡由於Mount Elizabeth Hospital的翻新，將在FY25E經歷EBITDA利潤率壓縮，但預計在FY26E將恢復正常。IHH在併購中將保持選擇性，主要標準爲EPS和ROAE增值，同時保持淨債務與EBITDA比率低於3.0倍。
Positive traction on BAU business
Notwithstanding the above, Maybank forecasts a slightly softer 3-year forward core net profit CAGR of 11% due to additional finance costs. It values IHH on an SOTP methodology by applying an EV/EBITDA multiple across key geographical operations and the respective proportionate market capitalisation based on consensus TPs for Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN, CP: INR682, Not Rated) and Parkway Life REIT (PREIT ST, CP: SGD3.73, Not Rated). With that, Maybank's SOTP-based TP is MYR7.97, equivalent to 13x FY25E and 12x FY26E EV/EBITDA multiples.
BAU（及業務）積極推進
儘管如此，馬來亞銀行預測未來三年的核心凈利潤年均增長率（CAGR）略微放緩至11%，原因是額外的融資成本。它通過對關鍵地理區域的運營應用EV/EBITDA倍數，以及基於共識TPs對Fortis Healthcare（FORH IN，CP：INR682，未評級）和Parkway Life REIt（PREIt ST，CP：SGD3.73，未評級）各自的比例市場資本化，採用了SOTP的方法爲IHH估值。因此，馬來亞銀行基於SOTP的目標價爲MYR7.97，相當於FY25E和FY26E EV/EBITDA倍數的13倍和12倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
