多地将消费电子纳入促消费补贴品类，有望提振3C 消费需求。2024 年7 月24 日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》的通知，向地方安排1500 亿元左右超长期特别国债用于落实包括家电产品以旧换新在内的六条支持政策。本轮补贴中，国家明确的消费电子产品品类有电视和笔记本电脑。由于各地区补贴品类不同，消费电子各产品终端覆盖范围有所不同，例如：青海、云南、广东、宁夏等地明确覆盖手机品类，广东、四川等地明确覆盖平板电脑品类。Incident description
Recently, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Jiangsu and other places have introduced trade-in policies involving the consumer electronics sector, extending subsidies to products such as mobile phones and tablets. Consumer electronics subsidies are advancing at an accelerated pace to further explore consumption potential.
Incident Reviews
The inclusion of consumer electronics in the consumer promotion subsidy category in many places is expected to boost 3C consumer demand. On July 24, 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Strengthen Support for Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In”, arranging ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of about 150 billion yuan for local authorities to implement six support policies, including the trade-in of household appliances. In this round of subsidies, the categories of consumer electronics products defined by the state include televisions and laptop computers. Due to the different subsidy categories in each region, the coverage of consumer electronics terminals varies. For example, Qinghai, Yunnan, Guangdong, Ningxia and other places clearly cover the mobile phone category, while Guangdong, Sichuan and other places clearly cover the tablet category.
Recently, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Jiangsu and other places have introduced trade-in policies involving the consumer electronics sector, extending subsidies to products such as mobile phones and tablets. Downstream demand is dominated by consumer electronics. Next year, it is expected to benefit from a wave of AI switching (new AI technology brings about product changes, which is expected to drive consumer switching) & a boost in national supplement demand. Since December 12, individual consumers participating in the event in Jiangxi Province can enjoy a 15% subsidy on the final transaction price; the Jiangsu 3C digital product special subsidy campaign has continued for one month, with a deadline of December 31. Purchases of mobile phones, tablets and other products enjoy a 15% subsidy of the transaction price; Guizhou Province enjoys a 20% subsidy on the transaction price for purchases of mobile phones and other products; in addition, Guangdong, Anhui and other provinces have also introduced trade-in and expansion policies involving more consumer electronics categories.
Optimistic about the company's stable high dividend: The company previously promised a three-year dividend rate of not less than 60% for 2023-2025, and will continue to be fulfilled. In addition, it plans to repurchase 0.1-0.2 billion yuan this year. Considering the repurchase, the dividend rate is expected to exceed 5% this year. Since its listing, the company has implemented a total of 2.85 billion yuan in cash dividends and a cumulative total of 0.65 billion yuan in repurchases, totaling 3.5 billion yuan.
Optimistic about the company's steady performance growth: Looking at the breakdown, 1) Revenue: About 70% of demand comes from consumer electronics, with leading domestic and foreign customers growing, and the number of high-quality new customers developed at the same time, such as Dyson and Nvidia, is expected to grow at a higher rate than the market; in addition, tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, and eco-friendly packaging (using paper instead of plastic) account for the remaining 30% of demand. Along with improving expectations of large consumption, it is expected that environmentally friendly packaging will continue to grow steadily; 2) Profit margin: Since 2021, the net interest rate of Tongyu Tongyu has continued to return to the bottom of the bottom. The upward trend is expected to continue, mainly due to capital expenditure The decline has dragged down new production capacity, promoted cost reduction and efficiency in smart factories, launched some new businesses with high gross margins, and increased the share of overseas output with higher profit margins.
Optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term growth: 1) Higher efficiency brings cost advantages and higher price ratios, helping the company to have higher profit margins and further increase its share; 2) It currently has 8 overseas bases (the Philippine factory opened in July and the Mexican factory opened in September), accounting for 20% of overseas output value, which is expected to rise further in the future; 3) Paper packaging is a large industry and small company. Currently, Yutong's market share in the country is only single digits, and there is plenty of room for growth. In addition, the company continues to strengthen smart factory construction. Currently, 5 smart factories have been completed, and more than 10 factories are under construction, planning, and preparation, compounding downstream demand improvement expectations and new customer development. The company's profit margin is expected to increase steadily. Currently, the company's annualized ROE is about 15%, and it is expected to approach 20% in the future. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 1.61/1.82/2.08 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE is 16/14/12X.
Risk Alerts
1. Market competition intensified; 2. Raw material prices fluctuated greatly.
