Overview of this week's important schedule.

• With the arrival of the New Year's holiday, financial markets in many parts of the world will be closed, will the USA stock market experience the 'January Effect'?

As the New Year holiday approaches, the global financial markets are likely to remain calm in the coming week. On Tuesday, the eve of New Year's Day, the Hong Kong stock market, Singapore stocks, and the Australian stock market will close in the afternoon, while the Japanese stock market will be closed all day; on Wednesday during the New Year's holiday, the markets including the USA stocks, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Singapore stocks, Malaysian stocks, Japanese stocks, Canadian stocks, and Australian stocks will all be closed for the day; on Thursday and Friday, the Japanese stock market will continue to be closed.

Currently, the USA stock market is in the 'Santa Claus Rally' period, which refers to the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the next year. Historical data shows that since 1950, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$the average ROI during these seven days has been 1.3%. However, whether the upward momentum can be sustained and for how long will depend on various forces that may drive the market in 2025.

Moreover, with the upcoming year of 2025, the US stock market may exhibit a "January effect." Historically, the rise in the US stock market in January has become a seasonal phenomenon. One explanation is that at the end of each year, institutions need to reduce taxes and often sell securities to lower capital gains, triggering a selling spree. In January, after the New Year, they tend to buy back some of the stocks they previously held, resulting in a rise in the stock market. Another explanation is that investors increase their stock investments with their year-end bonuses the following month.

• On Saturday, Federal Reserve official Barkin will give a speech, where attention can be paid to the US December ISM Manufacturing PMI, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, and more.

On Friday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the December Manufacturing PMI report, which is expected to provide investors with new insights into the health and strength of the US economy.

Specifically, the US manufacturing PMI for November was 48.4, a smaller contraction than expected, with new orders recording the first increase since March this year. Although the US manufacturing sector is still in contraction, most sub-indices in the November ISM Manufacturing PMI data showed improvement, combined with an overall PMI data that reached a five-month high, indicating that US manufacturing is stabilizing after two years of downturn.

The chief business economist of S&P Global Market Intelligence pointed out that optimism is on the rise: the sentiment among US manufacturers improved in November, although any feel-good factors have yet to translate into increases in factory output. However, optimism for the coming year has risen to its highest level in two and a half years, thanks to the elimination of uncertainty before the election and the prospect of stronger economic growth and more protectionist policies after Trump's new government takes office in 2025.

The market expects the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in December to slightly decline from 48.4 to 48.2, while the price index is expected to rise from 50.3 to 52.2. If the price index is weaker than expected, it could put slight pressure on the dollar, causing the US stock market to fall. At the same time, the weekly initial unemployment claims on Thursday may also become a key factor influencing the movement of the dollar and US stocks.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's first monetary policy meeting at the end of January 2025 may pose challenges for the rise of the US stock market. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor the speech of Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin at dawn on Saturday, Beijing time.

• China's December Composite PMI, official Manufacturing PMI, and Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released.

On December 31 (Tuesday), the National Bureau of Statistics will release the PMI data for December. In November, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous month, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level in our country remains stable and expanding.

Yang Xin from Hongta stated: "The new orders index for November expanded for the first time in six months. Although new export orders are still contracting, they have significantly improved month-on-month. Factory prices and raw material prices have both dropped significantly, with the latter experiencing a more pronounced decline, which helps lower and midstream enterprises increase their profit margins. Small enterprises are still in a Bearish Range, and over 60% of businesses reflect insufficient demand."

Wang Zhe, a senior economist at Caixin Think Tank, commented: "In November, manufacturing supply increased, demand expanded, enterprises increased purchases, actively replenished inventory, optimistic sentiments rebounded, and prices on the cost and sales sides rose to varying degrees, while Transportation and Logistics remained stable. However, enterprises remain relatively cautious in terms of employee usage."

December 30, Monday

Keywords: USA December Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, November Existing Home Sales Index Month-on-Month

On Monday, economic data such as the USA December Chicago PMI data, November existing home sales index month-on-month, and December Dallas Fed Business Activity Index will be released.

In the new stock aspect, in the Hong Kong stock market,$INNOSCIENCE (02577.HK)$、$HEALTHYWAY INC (02587.HK)$、$XUNFEIHEALTH (02506.HK)$Listed today. In the USA stock market,$Cre8 Enterprise, Ltd. (CRE.US)$、$Skyline Builders Group Holding (SKBL.US)$Listed today.

December 31, Tuesday

Keywords: Hong Kong stock half-day market, China's December Composite PMI, Official Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, USA's October FHFA Housing Price Index month-on-month.

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce December Composite PMI, Official Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI and other data. The USA will announce the October FHFA Housing Price Index month-on-month and the October S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index year-on-year.

In addition, on the eve of New Year's Day, the Hong Kong stock, Singapore stock, and Australian stock markets will close in the afternoon; the Japanese stock market will be closed all day.

January 1, Wednesday

Keywords: New Year's Day holiday, Hong Kong and US stock markets closed all day.

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the USA will announce the API Crude Oil inventory data for the week ending December 27.

In addition, during the New Year's holiday, the US stocks, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, HK->SH, HK->SZ, Singapore stocks, Malaysian stocks, Japanese stocks, Canadian stocks, and Australian stocks will all be closed on January 1st (Wednesday).

January 2nd, Thursday.

Keywords: The first trading day of the year for Hong Kong and US stocks, the number of initial unemployment claims in the USA for the week, the final value of the December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the December Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China.

New year, new atmosphere. On Thursday, the Hong Kong and US stock markets will welcome the first trading day of 2025.

On Thursday, economic data will be released, including the number of initial unemployment claims in the USA for the week ending December 28, the final value of the December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the monthly rate of construction spending for November; the final value of the December Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone will be announced; the December Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China will also be released.

In addition, Japanese stocks will be closed for one day.

January 3rd, Friday.

Keywords: EIA Crude Oil Product inventory in the USA for the week, EIA Henry Hub Natural Gas inventory, December ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the Japanese stock market will be closed all day.

On Friday, concerning economic data, the USA will announce EIA Crude Oil Product inventories for the week ending December 27, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for December, and EIA Henry Hub Natural Gas inventories for the week ending December 27.

In addition, Japanese stocks will be closed for one day.

January 4, Saturday.

Keyword: Federal Reserve Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech.

On Saturday, regarding financial events, Federal Reserve Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech.

Wishing mooers smooth investments in the new week and the new year!

Editor/ping