Is Pegasystems (NASDAQ:PEGA) A Risky Investment?
Is Pegasystems (NASDAQ:PEGA) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Pegasystems Inc. (NASDAQ:PEGA) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
得到巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露直言不諱地表示:"最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本的永久性損失。"因此,看起來聰明的資金知道債務——通常與破產有關——在評估一家公司的風險時是一個非常重要的因素。像許多其他公司一樣,Pegasystems Inc.(納斯達克:PEGA)也使用了債務。但更重要的問題是:這債務產生了多少風險?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般而言,債務只有在公司無法輕鬆償還時才會成爲真正的問題,可能是無法通過借款或使用其自身的現金流來償還。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還其債權人,就可能破產。然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦)的情況是,公司不得不以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性稀釋股東。當然,債務在業務中,尤其是資本密集型企業中,可以是一種重要的工具。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,首先會將現金和債務放在一起考慮。
What Is Pegasystems's Net Debt?
Pegasystems的淨債務是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Pegasystems had US$501.2m in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. But it also has US$703.0m in cash to offset that, meaning it has US$201.8m net cash.
下方的圖表(您可以點擊查看更詳細的信息)顯示,Pegasystems在2024年9月的債務爲50120萬美元;與去年大致相同。但它還有70300萬美元的現金用以抵消,這意味着它的淨現金爲20180萬美元。
How Healthy Is Pegasystems' Balance Sheet?
Pegasystems的資產負債表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Pegasystems had liabilities of US$1.02b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$81.7m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$703.0m and US$378.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$24.5m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
深入查看最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到Pegasystems的負債爲10.2億美元,12個月內到期,超過這一期限的負債爲8170萬美元。另一方面,它的現金爲70300萬美元,短期應收賬款爲37880萬美元。因此,它的負債總計比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出2450萬美元。
Having regard to Pegasystems' size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So it's very unlikely that the US$8.15b company is short on cash, but still worth keeping an eye on the balance sheet. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Pegasystems also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
考慮到Pegasystems的規模,似乎其流動資產與總負債之間的關係相當平衡。因此,這家價值81.5億美元的公司現金短缺的可能性非常小,但仍然值得關注其資產負債表。儘管它的負債值得注意,但Pegasystems的現金仍然比債務多,因此我們相當有信心它能夠安全地管理其債務。
Even more impressive was the fact that Pegasystems grew its EBIT by 5,423% over twelve months. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Pegasystems can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
更令人印象深刻的是,Pegasystems在十二個月內其EBIT增長了5423%。這一增長將使其更容易償還未來的債務。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到最多關於債務的知識。但最終,企業的未來盈利能力將決定Pegasystems是否能夠隨時間加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你想看看專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Pegasystems may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Happily for any shareholders, Pegasystems actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最後,雖然稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬的現金。Pegasystems的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但看看企業如何將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這會影響其對債務的需求和管理債務的能力。對於任何股東來說,令人欣慰的是,Pegasystems在過去兩年實際上產生了比EBIT更多的自由現金流。這種強勁的現金轉換讓我們像在Daft Punk音樂會中聽到節拍時那樣興奮。
Summing Up
總結
While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Pegasystems has US$201.8m in net cash. And it impressed us with free cash flow of US$323m, being 268% of its EBIT. So we don't think Pegasystems's use of debt is risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Pegasystems you should know about.
儘管查看公司的總負債總是明智的,但Pegasystems擁有20180萬美元的淨現金,這令人感到很欣慰。而且它的自由現金流爲32300萬美元,達到其EBIT的268%。因此,我們認爲Pegasystems使用債務並不風險。資產負債表顯然是你分析債務時需要關注的領域。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有這樣的風險,而我們發現了Pegasystems有1個你應該了解的警告信號。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果你是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,今天就來發現我們獨家的淨現金成長股票列表。
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