公司FY2024H2（2024年1-6月）实现收入291.34亿元（同比+13.8%），归母净利润4.58亿元（同比+146.1%），销量同比+160万吨至960万吨，剔除汇兑损益后吨净利45元（环比+10元/吨）。Q3终端疲软、需求不振，箱板/瓦楞价格环比分别-1.0%/-1.4%，叠加成本抬升等因素，该行预计吨盈利环比略下滑；Q4受益于旺季驱动&下游补库，该行预计公司产销景气，销量有望逐月上行，且龙头纸企携手挺价、10月涨价函逐步落地，箱板/瓦楞价格分别自底部+160/+330元/吨；国废受下游需求拉动，价格走势偏强，该行预计Q4公司盈利能力环比温和改善。According to a research report released by Cinda Securities, the net profit of Nine Dragons Paper (02689) for the 2025-2027 fiscal year is 1.21 billion yuan/2.11 billion yuan/3.54 billion yuan, respectively. The company's FY2024H2 (January-June 2024) achieved revenue of 29.134 billion yuan (+13.8% YoY), net profit of 0.458 billion yuan (YoY +146.1%), sales volume +1.6 million tons YoY to 9.6 million tons, net profit per ton of 45 yuan (+10 yuan/ton) after excluding exchange gains and losses. Although profitability declined slightly in Q3 due to weak terminals and weak demand, Q4 benefited from peak season and downstream inventory replenishment, and profitability is expected to improve moderately.
Cinda Securities's main views are as follows:
Price increases have been implemented, and production and sales are booming.
The company's FY2024H2 (January-June 2024) achieved revenue of 29.134 billion yuan (+13.8% YoY), net profit of 0.458 billion yuan (YoY +146.1%), sales volume +1.6 million tons YoY to 9.6 million tons, net profit per ton of 45 yuan (+10 yuan/ton) after excluding exchange gains and losses. Weak Q3 terminals, weak demand, and boxboard/corrugated prices are -1.0%/-1.4% month-on-month, compounded by factors such as rising costs; Q4 benefits from peak season drive & downstream inventory replenishment. The bank expects the company's production and sales boom, sales are expected to rise month by month, and leading paper companies work together to support prices, and the October price increase letter is gradually implemented. The price trend is +160/+330 yuan/ton from the bottom, respectively; domestic waste is driven by downstream demand, and the price trend is strong. The bank expects a moderate month-on-month improvement in Q4's profitability.
The pressure on supply and demand has eased, and the industry boom is rising.
On the demand side, box board corrugated paper is strongly correlated with macroeconomic indicators such as retail sales and GDP growth in China. The bank expects economic recovery to strengthen demand in 2024; on the supply side, leading companies will add more than 2 million tons in total production capacity in 2024, including 0.78 million tons in Wuzhou, 0.35 million tons in Longyuan, Henan, 0.3 million tons, and Suzhou contributed 0.9 million tons (the company is expected to be put into production in batches from September to December). Leading companies in 2025 The main new production capacity was only 0.25 million tons in Wuzhou (the company expects to start production in 2025Q1), 1.2 million tons for Sun Paper (the company expects to start production in 2025Q4), and 0.3 million tons for Xinxiang Henry Paper (the company expects 25H1 production to replace the original 0.2 million ton old production line). The apparent pressure on supply and demand is expected to ease. Furthermore, overseas costs have risen in recent years, and prices have been running high. In October 2024, China's total imports of boxboard/corrugated board were 0.395/0.193 million tons, respectively (the higher points were -0.132/-0.3 million tons, respectively), and the impact of zero tariffs gradually weakened.
Product structure optimization, acceleration of integrated pulp and paper layout.
By the end of June 2024, the company's total pulp and paper production capacity reached 26.81 million tons, of which the paper/raw material production capacity was 21.67 million tons/5.14 million tons, respectively. In terms of finished paper, card paper (cow card)
The production capacity of corrugated, gray board, cultural paper, and specialty paper is 1343/370/2.6/1.67/0.27 million tons, respectively, and the Guangxi Beihai base will add 1.2 million tons of white card/0.7 million tons of cultural paper respectively, and the 25Q1/25Q2 base in Hubei Jingzhou will add 0.6 million tons of cultural paper/1.2 million tons of white card paper, respectively. The product structure continues to be optimized. In addition, the company continues to deepen its layout in terms of raw materials. In 24Q3, Guangxi added 1.1 million tons of chemical slurry/0.6 million tons of machine slurry, and in 25Q2, Hubei added 0.65 million tons of chemical slurry/0.7 million tons of machine slurry. As of 2025, the total paper/pulp production capacity of H1 will be 25.37 million tons/8.19 million tons, respectively, and it is expected that the synergetic advantages of pulp and paper will continue to expand.
Risk warning: Downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, and production capacity investment falls short of expectations.
