The Automotive Industry Lacks Catalysts To Maintain Sales Momentum In 2025, Analyst Says
The Automotive Industry Lacks Catalysts To Maintain Sales Momentum In 2025, Analyst Says
"This was followed by Perodua (5.7%) and Proton (5%). Honda, however, recorded a 12.7% MoM increase," RHB Research said.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained a NEUTRAL call on the auto and auto parts sector as the research house feels the industry lacks catalysts to maintain its sales momentum in 2025.
RHb投資銀行有限公司（RHb研究）對汽車及汽車零件板塊維持中立看漲，因爲該研究機構認爲行業缺乏催化劑以維持2025年的銷售勢頭。
In a research note on Dec 26, the research house stated that the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) recorded a total industry volume (TIV) of 67,500 units for November bringing the year-to-date (YTD) TIV to 731,000 units.
在12月26日的一份研究報告中，研究機構表示，馬來西亞汽車協會（MAA）在11月錄得總行業成交量（TIV）爲67,500輛，使得年初至今（YTD）TIV總計達到731,000輛。
"Although there's an increase of 1.4% year-on-year (YoY) for the YTD figure compared to 11M23's numbers, the TIV recorded for November has weakened by 3% month-on-month (MoM) with major carmakers charting softer numbers, led by Toyota which saw a 6.7% MoM decline in sales volume.
「儘管與2023年11月份的數據相比，YTD數據同比增長了1.4%，但11月錄得的成交量（TIV）環比下降了3%，主要汽車製造商的表現也有所下滑，其中豐田的銷售量環比下降了6.7%。」
"This was followed by Perodua (5.7%) and Proton (5%). Honda, however, recorded a 12.7% MoM increase," RHB Research said.
「緊隨其後的是Perodua（5.7%）和Proton（5%）。然而，本田則錄得了12.7%的環比增長，」RHb Research表示。
The research house said the total production volume (TPV) fell 14% MoM and 10% YoY to 60,900 units in November, bringing the 11M24 TPV to 724,800.
研究機構表示，11月的總生產成交量（TPV）環比下降了14%，同比下降了10%，爲60,900輛，使得2024年11個月的TPV總計爲724,800輛。
"The MoM decline was seen across the major marques with Proton leading the way with 21%, followed by Perodua (9%), Toyota (19%) and Honda (7%)," RHB Research added.
「主要品牌均出現環比下降，其中Proton以21%領跌，其次是Perodua（9%）、豐田（19%）和本田（7%），」RHb Research補充道。
Nevertheless, the research house said generally, the performance of the auto sector players in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24) met the house's expectations as both Sime Darby Motors Bhd (SDM) and MBM Resources Bhd met its forecasts.
儘管如此，研究機構表示，2024年第三季度（3Q24）汽車行業的表現總體上符合預期，Sime Darby Motors Bhd（SDM）和MBM資源Bhd均達到了其預測。
"SDM started its FY25 (June) with an 11% YoY rise in 1Q25 earnings, mainly contributed by the consolidation of UMW's numbers into its bottomline. MBM's net profit improved QoQ.
「SDM在2025財年（6月）開始時，第一季度的盈利同比增長了11%，主要得益於UMW數字的合併入其利潤表。MBM的凈利潤也環比改善。」
"However, results from Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd (TCM) and Bermaz Auto Bhd (BAuto) fell short of its estimates due to TCM concluding its 9M24 with widening losses while BAuto's 1H25 earnings fell 42% YoY due to weak sales delivery," RHB said, adding that for 2025, it is forecasting a TIV of 730,000 units, a drop of 8% YoY from its 2024 projection of 790,000 units.
然而，來自Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd (TCM)和Bermaz Auto Bhd (BAuto)的業績未能達到預期，因爲TCM在2024財年第三季度結束時虧損擴大，而BAuto的2025財年上半年凈利潤同比下降42%，原因是銷售交付疲軟，RHb表示，另外，該機構預測2025年的汽車總銷售量爲73萬輛，同比下降8%，低於2024年預測的79萬輛。
The decline is due to the research house anticipating a softer TIV as the high base effect kicks in and it does not see any compelling factors for 2025 auto sales to be maintained at the current elevated levels.
下滑是由於研究機構預期汽車總銷售量將減緩，因爲高基數效應開始顯現，並且他們沒有看到任何迫切因素使2025年的汽車銷售保持在當前高水平。
"We think the decline will mainly be contributed by the non-national marques, which continue to face intensifying competition due to new names that have entered the fray.
我們認爲下滑主要是由非國有品牌造成的，這些品牌正面臨着由於新品牌的進入而日益激烈的競爭。
"Additionally, some car buyers may postpone their purchases in anticipation of further price cuts from both existing and new non-national marques which would also destabilise the non-national segment," the research house said.
此外，一些購車者可能會因爲預期現有和新非國有品牌會進一步降價而推遲購買，這也會對非國有品牌市場造成不穩定，研究機構表示。
On that note, RHB Research remains cautious in its outlook for 2025 given the ongoing price competition between non-national marques while softening order backlogs also indicate toned-down expectations.
因此，RHb研究在展望2025年時保持謹慎，因爲非國有品牌之間的價格競爭仍在持續，訂單積壓的減弱也顯示了預期的降低。
The research house's top picks are BAuto for its attractive valuation and higher-than-sector-average dividend yield and SDM for its broad electric vehicle line-up which is well positioned for the RON95 rationalisation.
該研究機構的首選是BAuto，因爲其吸引人的估值和高於行業平均水平的股息收益率，以及SDm，因爲其廣泛的電動車系列在RON95合理化方面具有良好的市場定位。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
