Bitcoin's Rally Tracked This Crucial Macro Indicator—And Now It's Pointing To A Correction
Bitcoin's Rally Tracked This Crucial Macro Indicator—And Now It's Pointing To A Correction
Consorti noted Bitcoin's rally from $40,000 to over $100,000 coincided with a period of liquidity expansion.Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) strong correlation with global M2 money supply has raised concerns of a potential price correction, according to Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya (YC).
比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）與全球M2貨幣供應的強相關性引發了潛在價格修正的擔憂，來自Theya（YC）的增長負責人Joe Consorti表示。
What Happened: Consorti highlighted Bitcoin's close relationship with global M2 money supply in a post on X on Dec.19, saying "Bitcoin has followed global M2 with extreme precision since September last year."
發生了什麼：Consorti在12月19日的X平台上強調了比特幣與全球M2貨幣供應之間的緊密關係，他表示：「自去年9月以來，比特幣與全球M2的關係極爲精確。」
M2 refers to the broad measure of money in circulation, including cash, deposits, and near-liquid assets, and is often used as an indicator of economic liquidity.
M2是指流通中貨幣的廣泛測量，包括現金、存款和近流動資產，常被用作經濟流動性的指標。
Consorti noted Bitcoin's rally from $40,000 to over $100,000 coincided with a period of liquidity expansion.
Consorti指出，比特幣從$40,000反彈至超過$100,000的過程恰好與流動性擴張的時期相符。
However, with global M2 contracting in recent months, Consorti cautioned that Bitcoin could face a larger correction, potentially revisiting levels around $90,000 or even lower.
然而，隨着近期全球M2的收縮，Consorti警告說，比特幣可能會面臨更大的修正，可能會回到$90,000左右甚至更低。
Bitcoin typically lags changes in M2 by approximately 10 weeks, making its correlation a reliable indicator of potential price movements.
比特幣通常落後於M2的變化約10周，這使得它的相關性成爲潛在價格波動的可靠指標。
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"Global liquidity has been contracting for the last six weeks, and Bitcoin historically follows this trend with a noticeable lag," Consorti noted.
「全球流動性在過去六週一直在收縮，而比特幣歷史上通常會明顯滯後於這一趨勢，」Consorti指出。
Despite the risks, Consorti suggested that Bitcoin's price trajectory could diverge from M2 trends under the right conditions.
儘管存在風險，Consorti建議在合適的條件下，比特幣的價格走勢可能會與M2趨勢產生分歧。
"Native buying pressure and favorable events could help Bitcoin decouple from global M2, though it remains uncertain for now," he said.
他表示：「本土購買壓力和有利事件可能幫助比特幣與全球M2脫鉤，儘管現在仍不確定。」
Consorti's analysis extends to the role of broader macroeconomic factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy and fiscal stimulus measures.
Consorti的分析擴展到更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素，包括美國聯邦儲備的貨幣政策和財政刺激措施。
While supportive conditions in the U.S. may provide a buffer, the contraction in global M2 and liquidity remains a key concern.
雖然美國的支持性條件可能提供緩衝，但全球M2和流動性的收縮仍然是一個關鍵問題。
Later in a tweet, Consorti said, "Bitcoin is down ~$7,500 to $92,500, following global M2 (USD-denominated) to a T. Favorable BTC-native events could help buck this trend."
稍後在一條推文中，Consorti表示：「比特幣下跌了~$7,500至$92,500，完全跟隨全球M2（以美元計）變化。有利的比特幣本土事件可能有助於抵禦這一趨勢。」
Update: 5 days after my last chart, bitcoin is down ~$7,500 to $92,500.
— Joe Consorti ️ (@JoeConsorti) December 23, 2024
Following global M2 (USD-denominated) to a T.
Largely a story of strong USD trouncing everything. Favorable BTC-native events like Trump's inauguration could help BTC buck this trend.
Merry Christmas pic.twitter.com/mcDd56nm1G
更新：在我最後一張圖表後的5天，比特幣下跌了~$7,500至$92,500。
— 喬·孔索提️ (@JoeConsorti) 2024年12月23日
完全跟隨全球M2（以美元計）的變化。
在很大程度上，這是強勢美元壓倒一切的故事。像特朗普就職典禮這樣的有利比特幣本土事件可能幫助比特幣逆轉這一趨勢。
聖誕快樂 pic.twitter.com/mcDd56nm1G
What's Next: While a correction is possible, Consorti maintains optimism about Bitcoin's long-term potential.
下一步：雖然可能會有修正，但孔索提對比特幣的長期潛力保持樂觀。
He pointed to increasing adoption, institutional interest, and structural demand as factors that could help stabilize Bitcoin's trajectory despite macroeconomic headwinds.
他提到了日益增加的採用率、機構興趣和結構性需求，這些因素可能有助於穩定比特幣的軌跡，儘管面臨宏觀經濟的逆風。
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Image: Shutterstock
圖片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
