Maybank Still Concern On Top Glove's Non US Demand
Maybank Still Concern On Top Glove's Non US Demand
Uncertainty remains on demand from non-US markets
$TOPGLOV (7113.MY)$ 's 1QFY25 core net loss of MYR5.8m (vs. MYR61m/MYR26m net loss in 1QFY24/4QFY24) was in line says Maybank IB. 1QFY25 plant utilisation rate (UR) improved to 66% (from 60% in 4QFY24), but blended ASP declined by -2% QoQ. TOPG is confident to turnaround in FY25E on better sales volume and ASP. The house maintain its FY25-27E earnings and MYR1.08 TP on 1.8x CY26E P/B. Maybank IB reiterates its SELL position believing the positives have been more than priced in.
$TOPGLOV (7113.MY)$ 's 1QFY25核心淨虧損爲580萬馬來西亞林吉特（對比1QFY24/4QFY24的610萬馬來西亞林吉特/2600萬馬來西亞林吉特淨虧損），符合Maybank Ib的預期。1QFY25的工廠利用率（UR）改善至66%（相比於4QFY24的60%），但混合ASP環比下降了2%。TOPG對FY25E的轉機充滿信心，認爲銷售量和ASP將有所改善。該公司保持其FY25-27E的收益預測，並維持1.08馬來西亞林吉特的目標價，以1.8倍的CY26E市凈率。Maybank Ib重申其賣出評級，認爲利好消息已經被充分反映在價格之中。
1QFY25: lower core net loss
Excluding MYR11.3m in non-operational net positives (such as fair value gain, unrealized forex gain, and PPE write-off), TOPG's 1QFY25 core net loss was MYR5.8m, versus our and consensus FY25E net profit forecasts of MYR124m and MYR139m, respectively. 1QFY25 core net loss was due to realised forex losses and the partial recognition of higher ASPs during the
preceding quarter (Sep-Nov 2024). However, the house said it expects stronger earnings ahead on higher plant UR and ASPs from increased US orders.
1QFY25：核心淨虧損減少
排除1130萬馬來西亞林吉特的非運營性淨利好（如公允價值收益、未實現外匯收益和固定資產減值），TOPG的1QFY25核心淨虧損爲580萬馬來西亞林吉特，而我們和市場共識的FY25E凈利潤預測分別爲12400萬馬來西亞林吉特和13900萬馬來西亞林吉特。1QFY25的核心淨虧損是由於實現的外匯虧損和對更高ASP部分的確認，
這是由於在前一季度（2024年9月至11月）期間。儘管如此，該公司表示，預計未來收益將因更高的工廠UR和來自增加的美國訂單的ASP而有所改善。
Key highlights from 1QFY25 results
1QFY25 sales volume rose 16% QoQ, while ASP declined 2% QoQ to ~USD19.3/k pcs. TOPG expects ASP to rise to USD21-22/k pcs from Mar 2025 (vs. FY25E ASP assumption of USD22/k pcs) as pre-higher US tariff stocks deplete. Management projects sales to grow as orders from US shift to Malaysia due to higher tariffs on China-made gloves from Jan 2025. TOPG plans to increase capacity to 70b pcs p.a. (from 64b presently) by reopening idle plants, with current UR at 70%. It also aims to expand into Vietnam, producing both natural rubber and nitrile gloves.
1QFY25業績的關鍵亮點
1QFY25的銷售量環比增長16%，而ASP環比下降2%至約19.3美元/千個。TOPG預計，隨着2025年3月之前的高關稅美國庫存耗盡，ASP將上漲至21-22美元/千個（與FY25E的ASP假設22美元/千個相比）。管理層預計，隨着美國的訂單轉移到馬來西亞，銷售將增長，因爲自2025年1月以來，中國製造的手套的關稅提高。TOPG計劃將產能提高至每年700億個（目前爲640億個），通過重新啓用閒置工廠，目前的UR爲70%。它還計劃擴展到越南，生產天然橡膠和丁腈手套。
Uncertainty remains on demand from non-US markets
Maybank IB is maintaining its earnings forecasts. The concerns it said remains with TOPG's significant exposure to the non-US markets, which accounted for 82% of its 1QFY25 sales volume (-2 ppt QoQ, compared to pre-pandemic level of 76%). The house expects Top Glove's Chinese counterparts to divert their US sales to these markets starting Jan 2025. For TOPG, regaining previous US customers or securing new ones may take up to six months due to the customers' audit process.
來自非美國市場的需求仍然存在不確定性
邁銀行投資保持其盈利預測。它表示，擔憂依然存在於頂級手套對非美國市場的重大暴露，該市場佔其2025財年第一季度銷售量的82%（環比下降2個百分點，相比疫情前水平的76%）。該機構預計，頂級手套的中國同行將從2025年1月開始將其美國銷售轉向這些市場。對於頂級手套而言，恢復以前的美國客戶或獲取新的客戶可能需要長達六個月的時間，因爲客戶需要進行審計。
Elsewhere, TOPG's proposed 1-for-20 bonus issue of up to 406m warrants (exercise price: MYR1.27/sh) is slated to be listed by Feb 2025
此外，頂級手套提議的1對20的紅利發行，最多爲40600萬Warrants（行使價格：MYR1.27/股）預計將在2025年2月上市。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
