Is Tesla accelerating the Robotaxi plan?
On December 21, local time,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ it was announced on the Social Media platform that the era of Self-Driving Cars (Robotaxi) is closer than expected.
With the release of the FSD V13 version, Tesla's Self-Driving technology has advanced further. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has stated that it is expected to launch Self-Driving Car services without human supervision in some cities in the USA by 2025.
It is noteworthy that Tesla's stock price has recently fallen consecutively, with a cumulative decline of more than 12%.
Tesla's Self-Driving Car plan is accelerating, with Musk strongly promoting the implementation of 'unsupervised' technology.
Since Musk showcased the Tesla Robotaxi at the press conference in early October, the company has been intensifying its efforts to advance the Robotaxi plan. On December 21, local time, Tesla stated on the X platform: 'The era of Self-Driving Cars is closer than you think.'
On the same day, Musk himself stated on social media: “If you haven't tried the latest Self-Driving Cars, you are missing out. The new version is great and will definitely amaze you! — Pure magic.”
It has been reported that on December 2, 2024, Tesla announced the release of FSD V13, the latest iteration of its highest-level driving assistance Software. Tesla's newly launched Self-Driving Cars assistance system FSD V13 is referred to as a "complete rewrite", featuring significant technological advancements and paving the way for Tesla's Robotaxi service.
Tesla's AI vice president Ashok Elluswamy previously stated that this version of FSD represents a complete technical rewrite, similar to the Raptor V3 engine of SpaceX's Starship, featuring a cleaner and more streamlined architecture. Yun-Ta Tsai from Tesla's AI team described FSD V13 as the biggest technological innovation since they launched the 'Photon Counting' project four years ago, and the system's end-to-end network will be capable of achieving automated Transportation from parking space to parking space.
Although FSD V13 enhances the capabilities of Self-Driving Cars, it still requires human supervision at this stage. Musk expects FSD to reach a level superior to human drivers by early 2025 and plans to launch Robotaxi services in the same year. Investors are highly anticipated about the iterations of FSD as it relates to the rollout of Tesla's Robotaxi service.
It is worth mentioning that Tesla's Self-Driving Cars taxi plan is not just about Software updates; the company is also engaging in preliminary cooperation with the government of Austin, Texas, in the USA to explore the possibility of launching self-driving vehicles in Texas. According to public emails, Tesla has been in communication with Austin's Autonomous Driving Task Force since May 2024, aiming to meet the city's safety standards and provide relevant training for first responders. Tesla is considering making Austin the first Texas city to deploy Self-Driving Cars taxis.
Musk has stated that Tesla plans to launch Robotaxi in 2025, but he has also acknowledged that Tesla has frequently delayed its timelines on the implementation of self-driving technology. In October of this year, Tesla unveiled its long-awaited pedal-less Self-Driving Cars taxi prototype 'Cybercab' and announced that it would launch an 'unmonitored version' of FSD in California and Texas. Despite these plans sparking intense interest from investors, many questions remain regarding the technical realization.
As Tesla accelerates the rollout of its Self-Driving Cars taxi service, Musk is also pushing for a relaxation of regulations on Self-Driving Car technology nationwide in the USA. He hopes to see more policy support for Self-Driving Car technology under the Trump administration. It is understood that Tesla's Self-Driving Cars in Texas face fewer regulatory obstacles, as the state's regulations for Self-Driving Cars are similar to those for traditional Autos, with no additional rules at the city level.
In contrast to Tesla, General Motors' Cruise company announced in early December that it would suspend its Self-Driving Cars taxi operations due to high costs and its project no longer being seen as a core Business. Cruise's Self-Driving Cars faced considerable trouble in Austin, including operational halts and traffic congestion. Austin's Mayor Kirk Watson has a cautious stance on Self-Driving Car technology, believing that despite its potential, it is still not mature.
Tesla's Self-Driving Cars: The triple test of technology, trust, and regulation.
Tesla's Market Cap has broken through $1 trillion again since Trump's election, one of the main reasons being the market's expectations for Self-Driving Car technology. Musk has consistently emphasized that Self-Driving Cars are Tesla's future, and the USA government has also started to pay attention to this area. Especially with the support of the Trump administration, teams are already working on developing a "Federal Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Framework."
However, despite government policy support, Tesla's development of Self-Driving Car technology still faces numerous challenges. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has increased its oversight of Tesla since 2023, especially concerning the performance of its "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) system. NHTSA has initiated multiple investigations regarding the performance of the Tesla FSD system under poor visibility conditions and Tesla's marketing of this technology. Additionally, the USA Department of Justice is investigating whether Tesla has engaged in false advertising. Tesla has even referred to FSD as "Supervised Full Self-Driving," a vague term that reflects the pressure the company faces in promoting its technology.
Nevertheless, there is still significant demand for Tesla's Self-Driving Cars within the legal framework. It is understood that legislation in the USA restricts the number and scope of Self-Driving Cars. Current laws stipulate that each manufacturer can deploy a maximum of 2,500 Self-Driving Cars meeting safety standards each year, while Musk plans to increase that number to over 2 million. It is currently uncertain whether this restriction will be relaxed, but some legal experts believe that NHTSA has the authority to amend these standards to provide more vehicle exemptions for companies like Tesla.
In addition to legislation, another contentious issue is whether the USA federal government should fully take over the regulation of Self-Driving Cars. Although federal vehicle safety standards dominate nationwide, state governments still retain significant authority on certain details, especially regarding vehicle operation and maintenance. For instance, Tesla plans to convert existing Autos into Self-Driving Cars using FSD technology; this model of "human-owned but self-driving" could lead to further legal conflicts between state and federal authorities.
Unlike Tesla, Google's Self-Driving Car company Waymo has shown more caution in the realm of Self-Driving Cars. According to reports, Waymo focuses on operating high-end customized vehicles in a few specific cities and is expanding slowly. In contrast, Tesla has adopted a large-scale "beta testing" approach by collecting data from existing customers, which subjects Tesla's technology to more rigor.
However, whether through technological advancement or policy changes, public trust remains the key to the success of Self-Driving Cars. Daniel Sinkler from the American Bar Association previously stated that the difference between Self-Driving Vehicles and traditional vehicles lies in the manufacturers' commitments to system performance. Currently, Self-Driving technology has not yet been experienced in the daily lives of most people, and if an accident occurs due to a technical failure, it could profoundly impact public trust.
Liam Denning, a columnist for Bloomberg, stated that while the USA government may introduce regulations regarding Self-Driving Cars in the future, these regulations should not overly favor any particular company, especially in a situation where automotive technology is still not mature. Establishing fair and transparent laws can ensure public safety and promote healthy technology development. If the regulations are too lenient and do not provide sufficient protection for the public, it may lead to widespread distrust of Self-Driving Cars in the market.
Editor/lambor