2 Telecom Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in December
2 Telecom Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in December
All this power shift came at a time when the telcos had invested billions of dollars in a 5G fibre network. And decade-high interest rates made their debt unmanageable, forcing the two into restructuring. However, the two telcos have left the price war behind and are now focused on deleveraging.Tighter regulations, intense price competition, and a slowdown in new subscribers made telecom the worst-performing sector of the Toronto Stock Exchange. Stocks of three telecom giants — Rogers Communications, BCE (TSX:BCE), and Telus (TSX:T) — fell 10% in December. The two-and-a-half-year downturn just got worse, sending the already beaten-down stocks near their multi-year lows. Some analysts even changed their stance on telecom stocks to bearish. However, I am still bullish on the telcos. It is an opportunity to buy undervalued assets with strong potential for long-term gains.
更嚴格的監管、激烈的價格競爭以及新訂閱用戶數增長放緩，使得電信成爲多倫多交易所表現最差的板塊。羅傑斯通信、BCE (TSX:BCE) 和泰勒斯 (TSX:T) 三家電信巨頭的股票在12月份下跌了10%。這兩年半的下滑情況進一步加劇，導致本已低迷的股票接近多年來的低點。一些分析師甚至將對電信股票的立場變爲看淡。然而，我仍然看好電信公司。這是買入被低估的資產，具有長期盈利強勁潛力的機會。
Why is the telecom sector underperforming?
爲什麼電信板塊表現不佳？
The strength of the Canadian telecom sector was its oligopoly, where the above three telcos commanded more than 80% market share and never competed on price. However, this balance was disturbed when Rogers acquired the fourth-largest telco, Shaw Communications. To secure regulatory approval for the deal, Roger sold Freedom Mobile to Quebecor's Videotron. This parallel deal created a new national telco.
加拿大電信板塊的強項在於其寡頭壟斷格局，以上三家電信公司佔據了超過80%的市場份額，並且從未在價格上競爭。然而，這種平衡在羅傑斯收購第四大電信公司肖通信時被打破。爲了獲得監管機構的批准，羅傑斯將自由移動出售給了魁北克的維多隆。這一併行交易創造了一個新的國家電信公司。
BCE and Telus used this transition time to poach Shaw's customers and strengthen their market share. Hence, the two entered into a price war, which hurt their profit margins. Among the three telcos, BCE took the biggest hit while Telus grabbed most of the market share.
BCE和泰勒斯利用這個過渡時期挖走了肖的客戶，增強了他們的市場份額。因此，兩者展開了價格戰，這傷害了他們的利潤率。在這三家電信公司中，BCE受到了最大的衝擊，而泰勒斯則奪得了大部分市場份額。
All this power shift came at a time when the telcos had invested billions of dollars in a 5G fibre network. And decade-high interest rates made their debt unmanageable, forcing the two into restructuring. However, the two telcos have left the price war behind and are now focused on deleveraging.
所有板塊的權力轉移發生在電信公司投資數十億美元建設5G光纖網絡的時刻。而十年來最高的利率使他們的債務變得難以管理，迫使兩家公司進行重組。然而，這兩家電信公司已經拋棄了價格戰，現在專注於去槓桿化。
This telecom stock is at a 14-year low
這家電信股票處於14年來的最低點
BCE's stock has slipped to its 14-year low and is trading at 2.18 times its book value. The book value tells you the amount per share after adding the years of accumulated profit. It won't be right to look at the price-to-earnings ratio in the current scenario, as its 2024 earnings are affected by several one-off items due to restructuring. In layman's terms, this is spring cleaning for BCE, and the house is a mess. The right time to judge the beauty of the house is after the cleaning is complete.
BCE的股票已滑落至14年來的最低點，當前交易價格爲其賬面價值的2.18倍。賬面價值指的是在累積利潤的基礎上計算出的每股金額。 市盈率 在當前的情況下，查看2024年的收益是不合適的，因爲其受多項重組的臨時項目影響。通俗來說，這對於BCE來說是春季大掃除，而房子一片狼藉。評判房子美觀的最佳時機是在清理工作完成之後。
BCE reported a net loss of $1.24 billion in the third quarter as it impaired its media assets. At the same time, it acquired Ziply Fibre, which will be funded by the proceeds from the sale of Maple Lead and Northwestel. Investors did not take this news well as the proceeds were earlier going to be used to reduce debt.
BCE在第三季度報告了12.4億的淨虧損，因爲它減值了其媒體資產。與此同時，它收購了Ziply Fibre，資金將來自於出售Maple Lead和Northwestel的收益。投資者對這一消息反應不佳，因爲早期收益原本計劃用於減少債務。
Moreover, BCE revised its 2024 guidance from flat revenue growth to a 1.5% decline in revenue due to a decline in mobile device sales. Device sales make up only 11% of BCE's revenue. Its major source of revenue is from subscriptions, and they are growing. Investors seem to have overreacted to the third-quarter earnings, as the stock price has fallen 25% since then.
此外，由於移動設備銷量下降，BCE將其2024年的收益指導從持平的增長修訂爲1.5%的下降。設備銷量僅佔BCE收益的11%。其主要收益來源於訂閱用戶數，並且還在增長。投資者似乎對第三季度的業績反應過度，自那時以來股價已跌落25%。
The overreaction comes as BCE paused its dividend growth and maintained the 2025 dividend per share at $3.99. Earlier, the payout ratio was 111% in 2023, and estimates suggest the ratio for 2024 to be above 130%, which increases the risk of a dividend cut.
這種過度反應源於BCE暫停了其股息增長，並將2025年的每股股息維持在3.99美元。之前，2023年的派息比率爲111%，而預計2024年的比率將超過130%，這增加了減息的風險。
Why is BCE stock a screaming buy in December
爲什麼BCE股票在12月是一個買入的絕佳選擇
The worst is behind BCE. 2025 could see the benefits of restructuring and improved earnings due to a weak base year (2024). Moreover, rate cuts will help BCE restructure its debt and reduce its interest costs. It could also see an increase in revenue as the new telco-to-techno company focuses on fast-growing segments of cloud, digital media, and cyber security.
BCE最壞的時期已經過去。2025年可能會因2024年的低基數而看到重組和改善的收益。此外，減息將幫助BCE重組其債務並降低利息成本。作爲一家新興的電信轉科技公司，它還可能在雲計算、數字媒體和網絡安全等快速增長的板塊中實現收入增長。
Morningstar estimates BCE's fair market value as $56, a 66% premium from its current trading price of $33.6.
晨星估計BCE的公平市場價值爲56美元，比其當前交易價格33.6美元高出66%。
Why is Telus stock a screaming buy in December?
爲什麼泰勒斯的股票在12月非常值得買入？
Telus managed to capture a significant market share from Shaw. Unlike BCE, Telus is better positioned to handle debt. Its dividend-payout ratio is also below 90%, giving it room to sustain the 7% dividend growth. The company will gradually reduce its debt and bring it to its target levels.
泰勒斯成功地從肖公司中奪得了顯著的市場份額。與BCE不同，泰勒斯在處理債務方面更具優勢。它的每股股息支付比率也低於90%，爲其維持7%的股息增長留出了空間。該公司將逐漸減少其債務並將其恢復到目標水平。
Telus's profits will also improve as the price war has finally come to an end.
泰勒斯的利潤也將改善，因爲價格大戰終於結束了。
The Canadian telecom market has set a new balance, and Telus and BCE will be key beneficiaries.
加拿大電信市場已經達成新的平衡，泰勒斯和BCE將是主要受益者。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。