The Zhitong Finance App learned that CMB International released a research report stating that it maintains the “buy” rating of Hanson Pharmaceuticals (03692) and believes that Hanson has successfully developed a complete GLP-1 asset pipeline portfolio. Cooperation with MSD will accelerate the development of the HS-10535 and unlock its global potential. The company's target price was raised to HK$25.24.

CMB International's main views are as follows:

Hanson Pharmaceuticals granted MSD an exclusive global license to HS-10535 for its pre-clinical oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist.

Hanson will receive an advance payment of $0.112 billion and potentially a milestone payment of up to $1.9 billion, as well as a share of future sales. Under certain conditions, Hanssen may jointly promote or exclusively commercialize the HS-10535 in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Merck will evaluate the potential of HS-10535, particularly its effects on cardiometabolic benefits other than weight loss.

Global oral GLP-1 drug development is underway.

Oral GLP-1 drugs are popular because they are easy to use and produce, and have attracted the interest of many multinational pharmaceutical companies and biotech companies. Several small oral GLP-1 molecules are in phase III clinical phase, including Eli Lilly's Orforglipron, Hengrui's HRS-7535, and Vincentage's VCT220. There are more than a dozen types in phase II. Among these oral GLP-1 candidates, Orforglipron, TERN-601, GSBR-1290, CT-996, and VK2735oral showed encouraging data on weight loss.

Safety is a key differentiator for oral GLP-1 medications.

Eli Lilly's Orforglipron (45 mg) showed a 12.4% placebo-adjusted weight loss effect at week 36, similar to the 12.4% semagalutide at week 68 in the STEP1 trial; however, the 15% Orforprongli discontinuation rate is worth watching. Several phase III trials of Orforglipron are ongoing, and the earliest phase III weight loss data is expected to be disclosed in the second half of 2025. Pfizer stopped dosing danuglipron twice a day due to safety issues and continues to advance the once-a-day plan. It is expected to release data in the first quarter of 2025. Roche's CT-996 achieved a 6.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss effect in week 4. In contrast, TERN 601 was 4.9% and GSBR-1290 tablets were 5.5%, but due to the small sample size and short follow-up time, it was difficult to directly compare the efficacy. TERN-601's zero withdrawal rate highlights its advantages in terms of safety. Notably, Viking's oral GLP-1/GIP drug VK2735 achieved 6.8% weight loss in week 7 and appeared to have better safety. Overall, in addition to weight loss effects, the bank believes that the safety of small-molecule GLP-1 drugs is a key differentiating factor.