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A Canadian Energy Stock Poised for Big Growth in 2025

A Canadian Energy Stock Poised for Big Growth in 2025

一隻有望在2025年實現大增長的加拿大能源股票
The Motley Fool ·  12/20 05:10

The Canadian energy sector is certainly hard to handicap right now. With Canadian exports to the U.S. now in the crosshairs of President-elect Donald Trump, some companies, such as Suncor Energy (TSX:SU), are seeing significant selling pressure, as the chart below shows.

加拿大能源板塊現在確實很難判斷。由於加拿大對美國的出口現在成爲了當選總統特朗普的關注焦點,一些公司,如森科能源(TSX:SU),正面臨顯著的賣壓,正如下方圖表所示。

However, I think there could be a counter-argument to this recent selling and a bullish thesis around Suncor that's worth exploring. Here's why I think Suncor could be in for a great year of growth in 2025.

然而,我認爲這近期的賣出可能有相反的論點,圍繞森科能源的看好的論點值得探索。以下是我認爲森科能源在2025年可能迎來偉大增長的一些原因。

Energy stocks could be surprising winners

能源股票可能會是意外的贏家

One of the downsides of a new Trump administration is the higher interest rates, as the Federal Reserve looks set to tamp down on increasing inflation expectations by keeping interest rates higher for longer. For investors, that may not be a great thing, as these higher interest rates should result in higher discount rates and lower valuations over time. Additionally, a rising U.S. dollar should continue to result in capital flows into the U.S., where there's less currency-related risk.

特朗普新政府的一個缺點是更高的利率期貨,因爲聯邦儲備銀行似乎準備通過保持利率長期處於更高水平來抑制日益增長的通脹預期。對投資者來說,這可能不是件好事,因爲這些更高的利率期貨應該導致更高的折現率和隨時間降低的估值。此外,上升的美國美元應該繼續導致資本流入美國,在那裏貨幣相關風險更小。

But if inflation expectations do pick up, Canadian energy producers such as Suncor could benefit. The fact that the company is selling its Canadian oil to U.S. companies and receiving U.S. dollars for said oil could position the company much better than many of its domestic peers.

但是如果通脹預期確實上升,加拿大能源生產商如森科能源可能會受益。該公司將其加拿大原油出售給美國公司並以美元收取貨款的事實,可能使其處於比許多國內同行更有利的位置。

This currency exchange and the commodity-related upside are often overlooked by the market in times of turmoil. And while it's certainly possible that Canada could slip into a recession or other major geopolitical issues could arise that would dent demand, if the soft-landing narrative remains in place, we're going to need a lot more energy over time. And despite tariff talk, it's clear that Trump wants to see lower prices at the pump, so investors have reason to believe that oil producers could (and likely should) be spared from any future tariff wars that may or may not heat up.

在動盪時期,這種貨幣兌換和與商品相關的上行往往被市場忽視。儘管加拿大可能陷入衰退或其他重大地緣政治問題可能會影響需求,但如果軟着陸的敘述保持不變,我們將需要大量的能源。儘管關於關稅的討論依然存在,但很明顯特朗普希望看到汽油價格下降,因此投資者有理由相信,石油生產商可能(並且很可能應該)免於未來可能加劇的關稅戰爭。

Key growth drivers worth watching

值得關注的關鍵增長驅動因素

Aside from the company's overall bullish backdrop (at least, I'd argue that), there are some other key growth drivers that may be worth paying attention to.

除了公司整體看好的背景(至少我是這麼認爲的),還有一些其他關鍵增長驅動因素值得關注。

For one, the company's very low-cost extraction processes for its operations in Canada's oil sands are really second to none. This operating model is what has allowed Suncor to turn a profit when oil prices were much lower than they are today. And if we do see an inflationary surge in prices, that would only benefit this energy exporter to an outsized degree.

首先,該公司在加拿大油砂的低成本開採流程真的是無與倫比。這種經營模式使得森科能源在油價遠低於今天的情況下仍然能夠盈利。如果我們看到價格的通貨膨脹激增,這隻會在很大程度上對這個能源出口商有利。

Ultimately, I think oil prices will stabilize and provide relatively consistent growth for Suncor over the next four years. Yes, there may be bumps along the way. But overall, the company's revenue and earnings growth profile should stay intact so long as no major bombshells are dropped on the company from here.

最終,我認爲油價會穩定下來,並在未來四年內爲森科能源提供相對一致的增長。是的,沿途可能會有一些波動。但總體來看,只要沒有重大的突發事件發生在公司身上,該公司的營業收入和盈利增長趨勢應該保持不變。

Bottom line

底線

Overall, I think Suncor is perhaps one of the best North American energy plays right now, and the market is overlooking or undervaluing it to a significant degree. This is a company that remains a cash flow machine in a crucial industry when it comes to various geopolitical drivers (North American energy independence for example).

總體而言,我認爲森科能源可能是目前北美市場上最好的能源投資,而市場正在忽視或大幅低估它。這是一家在各種地緣政治驅動因素(例如北美能源獨立)方面依然是一臺現金流機器的公司。

Thus, I think the narrative around this company could shift once Trump shifts his tone on Canadian tariffs, particularly for the oil and gas industry. Investors may want to get ahead of the curve — I don't think this is a falling knife, not yet, at least.

因此,我認爲一旦特朗普改變對加拿大關稅的態度,特別是針對能源行業,這家公司的敘述可能會發生變化。投資者可能想要搶先佈局——我認爲這還不是一柄下跌的刀,至少目前還不是。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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