Oil Prices Decline As Weak Economic Outlook Fuels Oversupply Fears
Oil Prices Decline As Weak Economic Outlook Fuels Oversupply Fears
"The market is adjusting to a less accommodative Fed outlook for 2025," noted Alex Hodes, analyst at commodities brokerage StoneX.
Oil prices fell on Thursday as cautious signals from central banks in the US and Europe heightened concerns about slowing economic activity and its impact on oil demand.
週四，油價下跌，因美國和歐洲的中央銀行傳出的謹慎信號加劇了人們對經濟活動放緩及其對石油需求影響的擔憂。
Brent crude futures declined 51 cents (0.7%) to settle at US$72.88 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for January delivery dropped 67 cents (1%) to close at US$69.91 per barrel. The more actively traded WTI February contract settled 64 cents lower at US$69.38 per barrel.
布倫特原油期貨下跌了51美分（0.7%），收於每桶72.88美元，而美西德克薩斯中質油（WTI）1月交貨價格下跌67美分（1%），收於每桶69.91美元。交易更活躍的WTI 2月合約下跌64美分，收於每桶69.38美元。
The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, with Chair Jerome Powell signalling a slower pace of rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns. The US dollar rose to a two-year high, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
聯儲局保持了謹慎的立場，主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示由於持續的通脹擔憂，減息的步伐將放緩。美元上漲至兩年高點，使得使用其他貨幣的買家購買石油的成本上升。
"The market is adjusting to a less accommodative Fed outlook for 2025," noted Alex Hodes, analyst at commodities brokerage StoneX.
商品券商StoneX的分析師亞歷克斯·霍德斯指出："市場正在適應聯儲局對2025年採取的更不寬鬆的前景。"
Economic uncertainties extend globally. The Bank of England held interest rates steady, reflecting divisions over how to respond to a slowing economy. In Japan, ultra-low rates remained as policymakers faced headwinds from potential trade tariffs under the incoming Trump administration.
經濟不確定性在全球範圍內延續。英格蘭銀行維持利率不變，反映出對如何應對經濟減速的分歧。在日本，由於政策制定者面臨來自即將入主特朗普政府的潛在貿易關稅的阻力，超低利率保持不變。
Surplus Forecast for 2025
2025年盈餘預測
Oil markets are bracing for a surplus in 2025, with J.P. Morgan analysts predicting supply will exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day. Brent futures have already lost more than 5% this year, marking a potential second consecutive annual loss as China's economic struggles weigh on demand.
石油市場正爲2025年的盈餘做準備，J.P.摩根的分析師預測供應將超過需求120萬桶/天。今年布倫特期貨已跌去超過5%，標誌着可能連續第二年出現虧損，因爲中國的經濟困境對需求造成壓力。
China's state-owned Sinopec anticipates the country's petroleum consumption will peak in 2027 due to a structural shift driven by energy transition measures.
中國國有企業中石化預計由於能源轉型措施帶來的結構性變化，國內石油消費將於2027年達到峯值。
On the supply side, sanctions and policy actions have done little to lift prices. Despite US-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil traders, analysts expect limited effects on the broader market, with Brent crude prices forecast to average US$73 per barrel in 2025.
在供應方面，制裁和政策行動對價格的提升作用有限。儘管美國對伊朗石油交易商施加了制裁，分析師預計對更廣泛市場的影響有限，預測布倫特原油價格在2025年將平均爲每桶73美元。
US crude inventories provided some relief, declining by 934,000 barrels last week, although this drawdown was smaller than analysts' expectations of 1.6 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll.
美國原油庫存有所緩解，上週減少了934,000桶，儘管這一減幅低於分析師預計的160萬桶，依據路透社的調查。
The global oil market remains under pressure from economic headwinds, with both demand and supply factors likely to shape price movements in the coming year.
全球石油市場因經濟逆風而承壓，未來一年內需求和供應因素可能會影響價格波動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
