Mohamed El-Erian Warns Fed Faces 'Bigger Problem' As Diverging Views On Rate Policy Highlight Lack Of 'Strategic Anchoring'
Mohamed El-Erian Warns Fed Faces 'Bigger Problem' As Diverging Views On Rate Policy Highlight Lack Of 'Strategic Anchoring'
As shown in the Federal Reserve's latest "dot plot" (below), there is a notable dispersion in views among Fed officials regarding how the policy rate will evolve from here.A significant disparity in Federal Reserve officials' views on future interest rate policy points to deeper strategic challenges that could impact markets through 2025, according to prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian.
根據著名經濟學家穆罕默德·埃爾-埃裏安（Mohamed El-Erian）的觀點，聯儲局官員對未來利率政策的看法存在顯著差異，這表明可能面臨更深層次的戰略挑戰，這可能會影響到2025年的市場。
What Happened: El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, highlighted the notable divergence in Fed officials' rate projections shown in the central bank's latest "dot plot" released after its December meeting.
發生了什麼：埃爾-埃裏安，安聯（Allianz）的首席經濟顧問，強調了聯儲局官員在其12月會議後發佈的最新"點圖"中關於利率預測的顯著分歧。
"This is part of a bigger problem — namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy formulation," El-Erian wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
埃爾-埃裏安在X（前身爲推特）上寫道：「這部分是一個更大問題——即政策制定過程中持續缺乏戰略錨定。」
As shown in the Federal Reserve's latest "dot plot" (below), there is a notable dispersion in views among Fed officials regarding how the policy rate will evolve from here.
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 18, 2024
This is part of a bigger problem — namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy... pic.twitter.com/ojcoXyUrAe
如聯儲局最新的"點圖"所示（見下文），聯儲局官員對於政策利率將如何演變存在顯著分歧。
-穆罕默德·A·埃爾-埃裏安（@elerianm）2024年12月18日
這部分是一個更大問題——即政策... pic.twitter.com/ojcoXyUrAe
The Fed's latest projections show officials expect the federal funds rate to decline to around 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. However, individual forecasts among Federal Open Market Committee members vary significantly, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts.
聯儲局最新的預測顯示，官員們預計到2025年底聯邦基金利率將降至約3.5%，低於目前4.25%-4.5%的區間。然而，聯邦公開市場委員會成員之間的個別預測存在顯著差異，反映出對減息速度的不確定性。
Why It Matters: This divergence comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals a more cautious approach to monetary policy. During Wednesday's press conference, Powell emphasized entering a "new phase" with slower, more deliberate rate adjustments ahead.
重要性：這種分歧發生在聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）暗示對貨幣政策採取更謹慎的態度之際。在週三的新聞發佈會上，鮑威爾強調，將進入一個"新階段"，未來將採取更緩慢、更謹慎的利率調整。
Market reactions underscored investors' concerns about the Fed's strategic direction. The S&P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) tumbled 2.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 3.5%. The U.S. dollar index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) surged 1.2% to levels not seen since November 2022.
市場反應突顯了投資者對聯儲局戰略方向的擔憂。標普500指數——由SPDR 標普500指數ETF Trust (紐交所:SPY) 跟蹤，暴跌2.6%，而以科技股爲主的納斯達克下跌了3.5%。由景順Db 美元指數看好基金ETF (紐交所:UUP) 跟蹤的美元指數飆升1.2%，達到自2022年11月以來的最高水平。
The dispersion in Fed views is particularly significant given persistent inflation challenges. Despite three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024, core PCE inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with officials now projecting 2.5% inflation through 2025.
聯儲局觀點的分歧尤其顯著，因爲通脹挑戰持續存在。儘管2024年總共減息100個點子，但核心個人消費支出（PCE）通脹仍高於聯儲局2%的目標，官員們現在預測2025年通脹將達到2.5%。
El-Erian warned in his recent Bloomberg Opinion column that this policy uncertainty could have meaningful implications during the first half of 2025, potentially affecting both U.S. economic performance and market stability.
埃爾-埃裏安在最近的彭博社觀點專欄中警告稱，這種政策不確定性可能在2025年上半年產生重大影響，可能會影響美國的經濟表現和市場穩定。
Image via Federal Reserve
圖片來自聯儲局
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免責聲明：本內容部分使用人工智能工具生成，並經Benzinga編輯審核發佈。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
