20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days
20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days
As markets brace for the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, scheduled at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday, Goldman Sachs highlighted 20 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have historically shown outsized moves around Fed decision days.
隨着市場預計聯儲局將在週三下午2:00舉行今年最後一次政策會議，高盛指出20個交易所交易基金（ETF），這些ETF在聯儲局決策日周圍歷來表現出超大的波動。
While a 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.50% is widely anticipated, the market's focus is on the Fed's forward guidance, particularly the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the updated "dot plot."
儘管普遍預期將下調25個點子，目標區間爲4.25%-4.50%，但市場關注的是聯儲局的前瞻性指引，特別是經濟預測摘要（SEP）和更新的"點陣圖"。
Following December's expected cut, Goldman Sachs projects a more measured pace of easing next year, forecasting rate cuts in March, June, and September, with the terminal rate seen at 3.50%-3.75%.
在預期的12月份減息之後，高盛預測明年的寬鬆速度將更加緩和，預計在3月、6月和9月將會減息，終端利率預計爲3.50%-3.75%。
Read Also: All Eyes On December Fed Meeting As Traders Await Interest Rate Projections
另請閱讀：所有目光聚焦於12月聯儲局會議，交易員們等待利率預測
Market Dynamics Around Fed Days
聯儲局會議日的市場動態
U.S. equity markets have displayed strong short-term gains during Fed meeting weeks in 2024.
美國股市在2024年聯儲局會議周顯示出強勁的短期收益。
Investors employing a simple strategy of buying the S&P 500 index at market close before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and selling at close the following day have captured median returns of 1.1% across the past seven meetings.
投資者採用簡單的策略，在聯儲局公開市場委員會（FOMC）宣佈前的市場收盤時買入標普500指數，並在第二天收盤時賣出，過去七次會議中獲得的中位回報率爲1.1%。
Yet those extending the trade horizon to 15 sessions post-Fed meeting have enjoyed significantly larger average gains of 3.29%, more than double the short-term returns. Notably, every Fed meeting this year has resulted in positive 15-day returns.
然而，延長交易期至聯儲局會議後的15個交易日的投資者享受到了顯著更大的平均收益，達到了3.29%，是短期收益的兩倍多。值得注意的是，今年的每次聯儲局會議均導致了正向的15天回報。
"We observe that U.S. banking ETFs, such as SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE), have seen unusually large moves on FOMC days since 2022" Goldman analysts wrote in a recent note.
"我們觀察到，自2022年以來，美國銀行ETF，如SPDR標普銀行ETF（NYSE:KBE）和SPDR標普區域銀行ETF（NYSE:KRE），在FOMC會議日出現了異常的大幅波動，”高盛分析師在最近的一份報告中寫道。
For bond-focused investors, the report highlights consistent post-meeting gains in high-yield and investment-grade ETFs like iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:HYG) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:LQD).
對於以債券爲主的投資者來說，該報告顯示高收益和投資級ETF如債券指數ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司債（NYSE:HYG）和債券指數ETF-iShares iBoxx投資級公司債（NYSE:LQD）在會議後的持續漲幅。
Meanwhile, energy-focused ETFs, such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), have seen negative reactions.
同時，關注能源的ETF，如美國原油基金（NYSE:USO），卻出現了負面反應。
ETFs Showing Heightened Fed-Day Moves
ETF在聯儲局會議日顯示出更大的波動
Here's Goldman Sachs' list of 20 ETFs with the largest absolute moves – which include both positive and negative swing – on FOMC days:
以下是高盛列出的在FOMC會議日中絕對波動幅度最大的20只ETF的名單——包括正向和負向波動：
| ETF Name | Focus | Average Absolute Move on FOMC since 2022 | Average Absolute Move (Last 3 FOMC events) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF | Regional Banking | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) | Semiconductor | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) | Semiconductor | 2.4% | 3.3% |
| SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) | US Large Banks | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE:XBI) | Biotech | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| United States Oil Fund | Oil | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) | Technology | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) | Silver | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) | Nasdaq 100 | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLY) | Discretionary | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) | Russell 2000 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) | Financial | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) | Gold | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:EMB) | EM Bond | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | HY Corp Bond | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | IG Corp Bond | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEF) | 7-10 Year Treasury | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP) | TIPS Bond | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Average | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| ETF名稱 | 關注點 | 自2022年以來FOMC日平均絕對波動幅度 | 平均絕對波動（過去3次FOMC會議） |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR標普區域型銀行ETF | 區域型銀行 | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| VanEck半導體指數ETF（納斯達克：SMH） | 半導體 | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| iShares費城交易所半導體ETF (納斯達克:SOXX) | 半導體 | 2.4% | 3.3% |
| SPDR銀行指數ETF (紐交所:KBE) | 美國大型銀行 | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| SPDR標普生物科技ETF (紐交所:XBI) | 生物技術 | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| 美國石油基金 | 石油 | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| 科技行業ETF-SPDR (紐交所:XLK) | 科技 | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| 白銀etf-ishares（紐交所：SLV） | 白銀 | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| 納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust (納斯達克:QQQ) | 納斯達克100 | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 非必需消費類ETF-SPDR (紐交所:XLY) | 自由裁量的 | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| iShares羅素2000指數ETF (紐交所:IWM) | 羅素2000 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| SPDR 標普500指數ETF Trust (紐交所:SPY) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| 標普500ETF-Vanguard (紐交所: VOO) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| SPDR金融行業ETF (紐交所: XLF) | 金融 | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| SPDR黃金信託（紐交所：GLD） | 黃金 | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| 新興市場美元債ETF-iShares（納斯達克：EMB） | 債券型 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 債券指數ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司債 | 高收益公司債 | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 債券指數ETF-iShares iBoxx投資級公司債 | 投資級公司債 | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 美國國債7-10年ETF-iShares (納斯達克:IEF) | 7-10 年國債 | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 通脹債券指數ETF-iShares (紐交所:TIP) | 通脹債券 | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 平均 | 1.5% | 1.3% |
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。