Equities Market Set to Moderate in 2025 on US Rate Cuts
Equities Market Set to Moderate in 2025 on US Rate Cuts
RHB economists underscored that the market is dominated by banks and real estate investment trusts, which are affected by rate cuts.Experts predict interest rates to settle at 3.50-3.75% by end-2025.
專家預測利率期貨將在2025年底穩定在3.50-3.75%。
Singapore's equities market will moderate in 2025 amid US rate cuts, experts said.
專家表示，新加坡的股票市場將在2025年因美國減息而溫和調整。
"The timing and size of the US Fed's interest rate decrease and the prospects for global economic growth will have a stronger influence on Singapore's equities market," RHB economists said.
RHb的經濟學家表示：「美國聯邦儲備的利率降幅和規模，以及全球經濟增長前景，將對新加坡的股票市場產生更強的影響。」
RHB economists underscored that the market is dominated by banks and real estate investment trusts, which are affected by rate cuts.
RHb的經濟學家強調，市場由銀行和房地產投資信託主導，這些都受到減息的影響。
Additionally, banks hold a significant index weightage and contribute heavily to the Strait Times Index (STI) earnings.
此外，銀行在指數中佔有重要權重，並對海峽時報指數（STI）的收益貢獻很大。
RHB forecasts flattish bank earnings in 2025 as net interest margins (NIMs) narrow due to falling rates.
RHb預測到2025年，銀行的收益將持平，因爲由於利率下降，淨利差（NIM）收窄。
The experts, however, said improved loan growth momentum, healthy fees and normalisation of credit cost run rates will cushion the NIM squeeze.
然而，專家表示，貸款增長勢頭的改善、健康的費用和信貸成本運行率的正常化將緩解NIM的壓力。
Positive economic growth in Singapore should help mitigate the effects of the easing interest rate cycle on local banks, RHB added.
RHb補充稱，新加坡的積極經濟增長應有助於減輕寬鬆利率週期對當地銀行的影響。
Unlike banks, REITs benefit from the easing of interest rates. RHB expects 2025 to be a better year for REITs than 2024.
與銀行不同，信託受益於利率的放寬。RHb預計2025年對於信託的表現會好於2024年。
"In the past cycles, S-REITs have witnessed sharp rallies during turning points in interest rates. The S-REITs' performances have a high inverse correlation to risk-free rates, ie long-term treasury yields, with particularly high sensitivity at turning points of the cycle." RHB said.
「在過去的週期中，S-REITs在利率轉折點時經歷了劇烈的上漲。S-REITs的表現與無風險利率（即長期國債收益率）呈高度負相關，特別是在週期轉折點時的敏感性極高。」RHb說。
"This was seen in 2012, 2016, and 4Q23 when the market saw interest rates easing, resulting in a 15-40% rebound in the sector," RHB added.
「這一現象在2012年、2016年和2023年四季度得以體現，當時市場利率放寬，導致該板塊反彈了15%-40%。」RHb補充道。
RHB, however, cautioned about share price volatility and short-term fluctuations driven by political and policy risks.
然而，RHb對股票價格的波動性及由政治和政策風險引發的短期波動表示謹慎。
Still, RHB anticipates the S-REIT's distribution per unit (DPU) growth to turn positive in 2025 and accelerate further in 2026.
儘管如此，RHb預期S-REIT的每單位分配（DPU）增長將在2025年轉正，並在2026年進一步加速。
RHB expects all market sectors, except financial, to deliver earnings per share (EPS) growth in 2025.
RHb預計所有市場板塊，除了金融板塊，將在2025年實現每股收益（EPS）增長。
The financial sector's EPS growth will turn positive in 2026, added RHB.
金融板塊的每股收益（EPS）增長將在2026年轉正，RHb補充道。
Sectors poised for strong 2025 growth include industrial, transportation, and utilities.
預計2025年將強勁增長的板塊包括工業、運輸和公用事業。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
