Geopolitical pressures and high growth expectations have caused NVIDIA's stock price to fall into a correction; can the Blackwell chip help it return to its peak?
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The stock price fell into the correction range on Monday, failing to emerge from its recent sluggish state. The stock price dropped by 1.7%, closing at $132, down 11% from the highest closing price of $148.88 set on November 7. In Pre-Market Trading on Tuesday, NVIDIA fell over 2% again.
Despite this, NVIDIA's overall performance this year has been impressive, with the stock price rising nearly 170% in 2024. In June of this year, NVIDIA even briefly surpassed $Apple (AAPL.US)$ and$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$, becoming the highest market cap publicly traded company in the Global. However, the market is weighing the challenges faced by NVIDIA's AI processors in sales.
Over the past month, NVIDIA's stock price has mostly been in a consolidation phase, with the market still awaiting clear signals for a sales acceleration of its Blackwell AI Chips. Although the company is expected to continue dominating the AI processor market for the foreseeable future, it also faces some geopolitical headwinds.
According to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal last Friday, the USA is preparing to implement regulations to restrict the sale of high-end AI chips to regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, in an effort to curb China's access to computing power through other countries.
Another challenge for NVIDIA is the high expectations set by its staggering growth over the past two years. According to a consensus forecast from analysts surveyed by FactSet, NVIDIA's revenue for fiscal year 2025 is expected to grow 55% to $191.45 billion, while revenue for fiscal year 2024 is expected to double year-on-year to $123.37 billion.
However, the slowdown in revenue growth does not fully reflect NVIDIA's performance. The adjusted EPS is expected to increase significantly to $4.20 in 2025, up from $2.72 in 2024.
Additionally, some investors may have shifted to other stocks with more attractive short-term returns due to prolonged waiting.$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$The stock price rose 11% on Monday, continuing the 24% surge after the earnings reports released last Friday, primarily driven by the potential of customized AI Chips.
On Monday, Bank of America Analyst Vivek Arya pointed out in a research report: "The uncertainty surrounding deliveries of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips, the sluggish recovery in the Industrial and Autos Industry, and concerns about restrictions on China are putting pressure on Semiconductor Stocks... Meanwhile, investors are shifting their attention to Technology Software Stocks that are not affected by China factors and benefit from AI."
Despite this, Arya still lists NVIDIA as a "preferred stock" in the Semiconductor Industry for 2025, believing that the deployment of Blackwell chips by USA clients will further boost the AI Chip market.
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