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November's Record Private Home Sales 'Temporary'

November's Record Private Home Sales 'Temporary'

十一月的私人住宅銷售紀錄是「暫時的」
Singapore Business Review ·  12/17 10:59

Developer sales in December are expected to fall significantly.

預計開發者在12月份的銷售將大幅下降。

November saw 2,557 new private home sales, the highest number of new units sold in a single month since 2,793 units were shifted in March 2013, however, analysts say this surge is just temporary as interest was mostly fueled by six back-to-back launches in the month.

11月份有2,557套新私宅銷售,這是自2013年3月銷售2,793套以來,單月銷售的新單位數量最高。然而,分析師表示這種激增只是暫時的,因爲興趣主要是由當月六個連續推出的項目推動的。

The six projects alone accounted for 82% of new home sales. These are from Union Square Residences, The Collective at One Sophia, Chuan Park, Nava Grove, and Emerald of Katong – collectively shifted 2,106 units. Meanwhile, the other new project, Novo Place EC sold 289 units in November.

這六個項目單獨佔新房銷售的82%。這些項目來自於聯合廣場住宅、One Sophia的集合、川園、Nava Grove和Katong的Emerald,共同銷售了2,106套。而另一方面,新的項目Novo Place EC在11月銷售了289套。

The top three projects were Emerald of Katong saw strong demand, with 99.3% of its units sold during the launch month. Chuan Park also saw strong buyer interest last month, with 78.7% of its units sold, due to its prime location near Lorong Chuan MRT station and easy access to the central region via public transport.

前三個項目是Katong的Emerald,需求強勁,在開盤月售出99.3%的單位。川園上個月也吸引了強烈的買家興趣,售出了78.7%的單位,這要歸功於其靠近Lorong Chuan地鐵站的優越位置,以及通過公共運輸便捷通往中心區域。

Meanwhile,  Nava Grove also achieved strong sales, with nearly 70% of its units sold.

與此同時,納瓦格羅夫的銷售也很強勁,近70%的單位已售出。

Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist at OrangeTee said the surge in sales is temporary.

克莉絲汀·孫,OrangeTee的首席研究員和戰略家表示,銷售激增是暫時的。

"Throughout 2024, new home demand has been subdued, primarily due to the lack of significant private project launches. Notably, sales during the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to only 3,049 units, the lowest Q1 to Q3 figures recorded since 2004, the year when data from URA first became available," Sun said.

"在2024年,新房需求一直處於低迷狀態,主要是因爲缺乏重要的私人項目推出。值得注意的是,2024年前三季度的銷售僅爲3,049套,這是自2004年以來Q1到Q3中記錄的最低數字,UR首先提供數據的年份,"孫說。

Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research & Content, PropNex Realty agreed, saying that November's robust sales have to be seen in context and do not automatically imply that an unfettered resurgence is upon the private housing market.

PropNex房地產的研究與內容負責人黃小英同意,表示11月份的強勁銷售必須放在背景下看待,並不意味着私人住房市場的復甦即將到來。

"Buyers, by and large, remain discerning and continue to take a long-term view of their property purchase. We note that projects that are centrally-located with a higher entry price had more measured take-up rates in November. Given the lack of new project launches in December, we expect developers' sales to fall significantly from that of November. For the full-year 2024, we project that new home sales could range from 6,500 to 7,000 units excluding EC," Wong said.

"買家總體上保持着挑剔的態度,並繼續對他們的物業購買保持長期的觀點。我們注意到,位於中心位置且門檻較高的項目在十一月的成交率更加謹慎。鑑於十二月缺乏新項目發佈,我們預計開發商的銷售將明顯下降,低於十一月的水平。對於2024年的全年,我們預測新房銷售量將介於6500至7000套之間,不包括簡約公寓," Wong表示。

Analysts also expect a significant drop in sales in December, but will pick up on Q1 2025.

分析師們也預計12月銷售將大幅下降,但將在2025年第一季度回升。

In Jan 2025, Bagnall Haus and The Orie will be launched for sale before the Lunar New Year. Five launches are planned for the month of Feb 2025 after the Lunar New Year. These launches are Aurea, Aurelle of Tampines (EC), Elta, Lentor Central Residences and Parktown Residence. Huttons Data Analytics is cautiously optimistic about a better performance in the sales market in 2025. Some of the unsatiated demand in 2024 may flow over to the launches in Q1 2025," Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director, Data Analytics at Huttons said.

在2025年1月,Bagnall Haus和The Orie將在農曆新年前推出銷售。2025年2月計劃在農曆新年後推出五個項目。這些項目包括Aurea、Aurelle of Tampines(EC)、Elta、Lentor Central 住宅和Parktown 住宅。Huttons 數據分析對2025年銷售市場的表現持謹慎樂觀態度。部分2024年的未滿足需求可能會轉移到2025年第一季度的發佈中," Huttons的數據分析高級董事Lee Sze Teck表示。

Leonard Tay, Head, of Research at Knight Frank Singapore, however, cautioned that 2025 is likely to become more volatile as geo-political tensions continue to increase as the year closes.

然而,Knight Frank Singapore的研究負責人Leonard Tay警告說,隨着地緣政治緊張局勢的持續加劇,2025年可能會變得更加動盪。

"Especially with greater uncertainty in the Middle East and the current impasse in Ukraine. A second Trump presidency with warning shots of more tariffs and protectionist policies might affect businesses all over the world, affecting the flow of trade and the global economy. Should these combine to affect Singapore's improving economy and the job market, homebuying demand might revert back to the sidelines as it did for much of 2024," Tay said.

"尤其是在中東的更大不確定性和烏克蘭目前的僵局下。唐納德·特朗普的第二任總統任期可能會發出更多關稅和保護主義政策的警告,影響全球各地的商業,影響貿易流動和全球經濟。如果這些因素結合在一起影響新加坡正在改善的經濟和就業市場,購房需求可能會像2024年大部分時間那樣回歸邊緣," Tay說。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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