Energy Sector: Correction or Boom? What to Expect in 2025
Energy Sector: Correction or Boom? What to Expect in 2025
If we gauge the performance of the Canadian energy sector from the energy composite index, the 2024 performance can be divided into two segments. The performance was quite decent in the first quarter, but since hitting the peak in April, the index has mostly hovered around a mean value, and the overall trend has been downward. The index has slumped over 11% since the peak in April.
如果我们通过能源综合指数来衡量加拿大能源板块的表现,2024年的表现可以分为两个部分。第一季度的表现相当不错,但自4月达到峰值以来,该指数大多在一个平均值附近徘徊,整体趋势向下。自4月峰值以来,该指数已下跌超过11%。
Unfortunately, things don't look that great for 2025 as well. The chances of oil prices going down further are high, which may lead to a correction in the sector.
不幸的是,2025年的前景也不乐观。油价进一步下跌的可能性很高,这可能导致该板块的修正。
An upstream energy company
一家上游能源公司
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) is one of the largest energy companies in Canada by several metrics. It's one of the few large-cap stocks close to or beyond the $100 billion mark (with its current market cap of around $97 billion). It also boasts the largest crude oil and natural gas reserves in the country, the largest crude oil producer, and the second biggest natural gas producer.
加拿大自然资源(TSX:CNQ)是加拿大最大的能源公司之一,按照多个指标来衡量。它是为数不多的 大盘股票 接近或超过1000亿(目前市值约为970亿)。它还拥有全国最大的原油和天然气储备,是最大的原油生产商,也是第二大天然气生产商。
As an upstream company, Canadian Natural Resources is quite vulnerable to oil price dips, but historically, the company has survived such slumps quite well. One reason behind this is the company's low-cost production, which gives it more leeway.
作为一家上游公司,加拿大自然资源对油价下跌相当脆弱,但历史上,该公司在这样的低迷中表现得相当不错。其背后的一个原因是公司的低成本生产,使其有更多的余地。
But the market dynamics are still taking their toll on the stock. It has fallen 18% from the yearly peak. If a correction happens, the stock may fall even harder. One benefit would be its yield rising to mouthwatering levels. It's already at 4.8%.
但市场动态仍在对该股票产生影响。它已从年度峰值下跌了18%。如果出现修正,股票可能会跌得更狠。一个好处是其收益率将飙升至令人垂涎的水平。目前已达到4.8%.
An integrated energy company
一家综合能源公司
Integrated energy companies like Suncor (TSX:SU) may react differently to the same kind of headwinds. First, they have more room to absorb the negative impact of low oil prices. They can manage the profit margin and expenses by making adjustments to their midstream and, most importantly, downstream businesses.
像Suncor(TSX:SU)这样的综合能源公司可能会对同类逆风反应不同。首先,他们有更多的空间来吸收低油价的负面影响。他们可以通过调整中游和最重要的下游业务来管理利润率和支出。
This may be why Suncor stock is handling the current index slump quite well. It's plateauing but not falling yet. But that doesn't mean it would be able to sustain low oil prices and demand in the long term. The company has already slashed its dividends once during the pandemic.
这可能是为什么Suncor股票在当前指数下滑中表现得相当不错。它在平台期,但尚未下跌。但这并不意味着它能够在长期内维持低油价和需求。该公司在疫情期间已经削减了分红派息一次。
It may do so again if the market is weak enough. Also, as an integrated company, Suncor is also vulnerable to downstream-impacting factors like electric vehicles gaining more traction.
如果市场足够疲弱,它可能会再次这样做。此外,作为一家综合公司,Suncor也容易受到影响下游的因素,例如新能源汽车获得更多关注。
A midstream energy company
一家中游能源公司
Midstream companies, especially giants like Enbridge (TSX:ENB), might fare well even if the energy sector enters a correction phase. The company already has a history of contrarian performance. It slumped when the rest of the energy sector was bullish, and now, when the sector/index is relatively weak, the stock is going up at a decent pace.
中游公司,尤其是像恩桥(TSX:ENB)这样的巨头,即使在能源板块进入修正阶段,也可能表现良好。该公司已经有逆势表现的历史。当其他能源板块看好的时候,它曾经下跌,而现在,当这个板块/指数相对疲弱时,股票以相当不错的速度上涨。
Part of the reason behind this midstream "safety" is that as a pipeline company, its revenue is tied to the contracts upstream companies make with it. These contracts are relatively long-term and don't change much, regardless of the oil prices.
这种中游“安全感”的部分原因是,作为一家管道公司,其营业收入与上游公司与其签订的合同挂钩。这些合同相对长期,并且不受油价影响而变化。
A significant slump in oil demand and smaller quantities transporting via Enbridge's pipelines may impact its top line, but otherwise, the company is safe. It has an additional cushion in the form of a gas utility business.
对WTI原油需求的大幅下滑和通过恩桥管道运输的小量可能会影响其营收,但从其他方面来看,该公司是安全的。它还有一个燃气公用事业业务作为额外的缓冲。
Foolish takeaway
愚蠢的看法
The three energy stocks may behave differently in the correction mode. They will also behave quite differently in a bullish market, but the chances of such a market manifesting are low compared to a correction (that seems more likely).
这三只 能源股票 在调整模式下,它们可能表现得各不相同。在看好的市场中,它们的表现也会有所不同,但相比于调整,这样的市场出现的机会较小(似乎更可能出现调整)。
However, a correction may not be a bad thing, especially if you are eyeing some of these energy stocks for their dividends, as it may allow you to lock in a high yield.
然而,调整可能并不是坏事,特别是如果你关注这些能源股票的分红派息,因为这可能让你获得高收益。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。