Building Material Sector To Benefit From US-China Trade Tiff
Building Material Sector To Benefit From US-China Trade Tiff
The research house is particularly positive on the aluminium sector, given the expected recovery in aluminium prices, bolstered by growing demand from green industries. RHB Research's economics team anticipates a 75 basis point cut in the US Federal Funds Rate in 2025, which could support an upward trend in aluminium prices. PMAH is expected to benefit from higher global aluminium prices, the removal of the 13% tax rebate on aluminium exports by China, and increased demand from non-Chinese manufacturers.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained its OVERWEIGHT stance on the building materials sector, with Malayan Cement (LMC) $MCEMENT (3794.MY)$ as its top pick. The research house remains optimistic about the aluminium and cement sectors, which it believes are well-positioned to benefit from heightened US-China trade tensions and strong demand from green industries.
印度興業投資銀行有限公司（RhB Research）維持了對建築材料行業的增持立場，馬來亞水泥（LMC） $MCEMENT (3794.MY)$ 作爲其首選。該研究機構對鋁和水泥行業仍然持樂觀態度，它認爲鋁和水泥行業完全有能力從中美貿易緊張局勢加劇和綠色工業的強勁需求中受益。
Aluminium is expected to see gains from increased global demand, while the cement sector remains supported by strong ties with construction and property markets. RHB Research highlights that LMC stands to benefit from the ongoing construction and property activities, especially with its dominance in West Malaysia, and potential expansion into East Malaysia, which could further boost its national market share.
預計鋁業將因全球需求的增加而獲得增長，而水泥行業仍將受到與建築和房地產市場的緊密聯繫的支持。RhB Research強調，LMC將受益於正在進行的建築和房地產活動，尤其是其在西馬的主導地位，以及向東馬來西亞擴張的潛在業務，這可能會進一步提高其全國市場份額。
In its third-quarter results for 2024 (Q324), Press Metal (PMAH) $PMETAL (8869.MY)$ exceeded expectations, while LMC's performance was in line with projections. PMAH reported a core profit of RM475.8 million, which represents a 7% decline from the previous quarter but a 49% year-on-year increase. The company's earnings growth was primarily driven by stronger contributions from its associates. Meanwhile, LMC experienced solid double-digit growth, with a 29.3% year-on-year increase in sales from aggregates and concrete. Higher selling prices helped offset weaker cement sales. Following the results, RHB Research raised PMAH's earnings forecasts for FY24F-26F by 14.4%, 12.2%, and 7.5%, respectively, after revising its assumptions on associate contributions, cost structures, and the USD/MYR exchange rate. LMC's forecasts, however, remain unchanged.
在2024年第三季度業績（324年第三季度）中，Press Metal（PMAH） $PMETAL (8869.MY)$ 超出了預期，而LMC的表現符合預期。PMAH公佈的核心利潤爲47580萬令吉，比上一季度下降7％，但同比增長49％。該公司的收益增長主要是由其員工的強勁貢獻推動的。同時，LMC實現了穩健的兩位數增長，骨料和混凝土的銷售額同比增長29.3％。更高的銷售價格幫助抵消了水泥銷售的疲軟。公佈結果後，RhB Research在修改了對關聯公司繳款、成本結構和美元/馬幣匯率的假設後，將PMAH對 FY24F-26F 的收益預測分別提高了14.4％、12.2％和7.5％。但是，LMC的預測保持不變。
The research house is particularly positive on the aluminium sector, given the expected recovery in aluminium prices, bolstered by growing demand from green industries. RHB Research's economics team anticipates a 75 basis point cut in the US Federal Funds Rate in 2025, which could support an upward trend in aluminium prices. PMAH is expected to benefit from higher global aluminium prices, the removal of the 13% tax rebate on aluminium exports by China, and increased demand from non-Chinese manufacturers.
鑑於在綠色工業需求增長的推動下，鋁價預計將回升，該研究機構對鋁行業的看法尤其樂觀。RhB Research的經濟團隊預計，2025年美國聯邦基金利率將下調75個點子，這可能會支持鋁價的上漲趨勢。預計PMAH將受益於全球鋁價格上漲、中國取消13％的鋁出口退稅以及非中國製造商需求的增加。
Alumina prices, which had remained high at US$695.40 per tonne in Q424, are a concern for PMAH, although the house expects a normalisation in 2025 with new projects in Indonesia and India starting operations in the first half of the year. Moreover, PMAH's stake in Bintan Alumina Indonesia, which acts as a natural hedge, is expected to help mitigate the impact of rising alumina costs.
氧化鋁價格在424年季度一直居高不下，爲每噸695.40美元，是PMAH關注的問題，儘管該公司預計，隨着印度尼西亞和印度的新項目將於今年上半年開始運營，2025年將實現正常化。此外，PMAH持有作爲天然對沖工具的印度尼西亞民丹氧化鋁的股份有望幫助減輕氧化鋁成本上漲的影響。
RHB Research also sees stability in bulk cement prices, which have been sustained at RM380 per tonne since July 2023. This price stability is expected to persist, supported by the demand for key infrastructure projects, such as the Penang Light Rail Transit (LRT) and West Ipoh Span Expressway. With a range of infrastructure projects planned across the country, cement producers are expected to benefit significantly from these initiatives.
RhB Research還預計，散裝水泥價格將保持穩定，自2023年7月以來，散裝水泥價格一直保持在每噸 RM380。在檳城輕軌交通（LRT）和西怡保跨度高速公路等關鍵基礎設施項目的需求的支持下，這種價格穩定預計將持續下去。由於計劃在全國範圍內開展一系列基礎設施項目，預計水泥生產商將從這些舉措中受益匪淺。
The research house notes that risks to this optimistic outlook include higher-than-expected raw material costs and a sharp deterioration in global economic conditions, which could dampen construction activity and reduce demand for aluminium and cement.
該研究機構指出，這種樂觀前景面臨的風險包括原材料成本高於預期以及全球經濟狀況的急劇惡化，這可能會抑制建築活動並減少對鋁和水泥的需求。
RHB's top pick, Malayan Cement, has a BUY rating with a target price of RM6.59.
RHB的首選馬來亞水泥的評級爲買入，目標價爲6.59令吉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
