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国信证券:存款降息叠加产品优化 驱动险企新一轮“开门红”

Guosen: Deposit rate cuts combined with product optimization drive a new round of "good start" for insurance companies.

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 16 15:11

The Insurance Industry's "Open Door Red" for 2025 is set to commence at the end of November and the beginning of December, and it is expected that during this period, additional opportunities will focus on the exploration of incremental insurance demand brought about by a combination product strategy.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities has released a research report stating that the Insuranc Industry's "Open Door Red" for 2025 will focus on the end of November and early December, anticipating that the incremental opportunities during this period may concentrate on the exploration of incremental insurance demand brought about by the combination product strategy, thereby contributing stable demand for insurance companies' asset allocation. On the asset side, looking ahead to the first quarter of 2025, with the expansion of renewal and new policy premium scales and the maturity of existing non-standard assets, it is expected that the demand for insurance assets allocation will remain high, corresponding to a continued allocation trend for long-term bonds and high-dividend assets (assets measured by OCI), with the window for insurance capital allocation likely concentrated from the end of December to the end of the first quarter. Continued bullish outlook on the persistent demand for insurance capital allocation in the first quarter.

Guosen Securities' main points are as follows:

Listed insurance companies are making full preparations for the "Open Door Red", with premium income showing significant year-on-year growth.

As November arrives, the Insurance Industry is making a full push to meet the annual premium income target while preparing for the 2025 "Open Door Red". With improvements in team quality, increased per capita productivity, and the launch of new products among other factors, listed insurance companies achieved a premium income of 2666.7 billion yuan in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Among them, Ping An Insurance, The People's Insurance, China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance reported year-on-year premium income growth of 7.9%/5.5%/4.8%/4.3%/2.1%, as the benefits of industry reforms continue to be released.

The "Open Door Red" for personal insurance is about to begin, with an increased proportion of dividend-type products.

As the industry enters the preparation phase for the "Open Door Red", the launch of new products, increased recruitment, and customer reserves are driving a short-term adjustment in the industry, leading to a month-on-month decline in monthly premium income in the personal insurance sector. Among them, The People's Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and New China Life Insurance saw month-on-month premium income changes of +8%/+2%/-6%/-25% respectively. From the perspective of newly issued product structure, the proportions of dividend-type products and annuity insurance are 42.3% and 34% respectively, which helps insurance companies reduce the risk of interest spread loss under the current rapid decline in long-term interest rates through a "low guarantee + high floating" model. Additionally, the proportion of increased permanent life insurance remains high, expected to still meet some savings-type customers' insurance needs, with a projected year-on-year premium growth rate of about 7% to 8% during the 2025 "Open Door Red", corresponding to an NBV growth rate of 25%.

Pursuing the annual premium income target, the increase in Property Insurance premiums has expanded.

As of the end of November, the three traditional Property Insurance companies achieved total Property Insurance premium income of 921.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, continuing to expand compared to the previous month. Among them, China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and The People's Insurance grew by 7.0%/6.8%/5.1% year-on-year respectively. Benefiting from the steady increase in the number of Autos and the continued catalyst of policies in certain non-auto insurance categories, combined with the approaching year-end assessment season, the monthly premium income of the three companies saw an 8.2% year-on-year increase and a 6.6% month-on-month increase. Ping An Insurance, The People's Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance grew by 9.8%/9.2%/3.1% year-on-year respectively. Since September, the overall impact of natural disasters has weakened, which is Bullish for the stabilization of underwriting profits in the Property Insurance industry.

Recommended symbols: China Life Insurance (601628.SH), China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH), New China Life Insurance (601336.SH).

Risk warnings: Market demand is less than expected; agent reforms do not meet expectations; Capital Markets continue to fluctuate; long-term interest rates are declining; regulatory tightening, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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