Overview of this week's important schedule.

• The last "Super Central Bank Week" of the year is coming! Is the Federal Reserve likely to perform a "hawkish rate cut"?

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, becoming the focus of the market this week. Currently, the market widely expects a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December. However, due to strong data in November, the risk of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in early 2025 has increased, making Powell's post-meeting speech and the latest economic forecasts crucial.

Goldman Sachs believes that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is a certainty, followed by consecutive cuts of 25 basis points in January and March 2025; afterward, there will be only rate cuts in the June and September meetings. However, there are still some variables, as more and more Federal Reserve officials indicate that the FOMC might slow down the pace of rate cuts earlier, so there is a risk of pausing rate cuts in the January meeting.

It is worth noting that the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates next week is already fully reflected in market prices, and any changes could overturn market expectations. Additionally, the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will be announced sequentially on Thursday, and are expected to remain unchanged.

• China's November economic data and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator will be announced.

On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release economic data including industrial added value above a designated size, fixed asset investment, social consumer goods, and housing prices in 70 cities for November.

"The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator" — the U.S. core PCE price index for November will be announced on Friday. Additionally, important data such as November retail data and the annualized quarter-on-quarter final value of actual GDP for the third quarter will be revealed on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.

According to economists' forecasts, the PCE (excluding food and energy) may rise by 0.2% in November, the smallest increase in three months. This report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating resilience in the economy.

The U.S. retail sales data for November, released on Tuesday, may also show similar strong momentum. Last month's data indicated that U.S. retail sales increased in October, driven by a surge in auto purchases, with other retail categories suggesting some growth momentum as the holiday season approaches.

The U.S. GDP for the third quarter remains robust, largely due to the strong performance of consumer spending. The report shows that consumer spending grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, although slightly lower than expectations and the initial value of 3.7%, it is still the highest increase this year.

• The U.S. stock earnings report season is coming to a close; several new Hong Kong stocks are being listed.

In terms of U.S. stock earnings reports, only $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 $FedEx (FDX.US)$ and $Carnival (CCL.US)$ Among the few leading companies worth paying attention to, a new round of Earnings Reports season will start next month.

In the Hong Kong stock market, suppliers of health products and beauty and skin care products$HERBS GROUP (02593.HK)$ , a leading enterprise in providing convenient Chinese food, $XIAOCAIYUAN (00999.HK)$ will respectively list on the Hong Kong stock market on Thursday and Friday.

On December 11, market news showed that the IPO Subscription for Herbs Generation Group Holdings Limited reached 11.06 billion HKD on the first day, with an oversubscription of 798.7 times. The group was co-founded by artist Guo Jinan and his sister Guo Zhiyin, aiming to issue 33.334 million shares, with 10% publicly offered in Hong Kong, and the IPO price ranging from 3.75 HKD to 4.15 HKD, raising a maximum of 0.14 billion HKD.

This week's key performance calendar

December 16, Monday

Keywords: China's November economic data; USA's December New York Fed Manufacturing Index, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

On Monday, in terms of economic data, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release November's national Real Estate Development, Consumer retail, and 70 city housing price data; in terms of Europe and the USA, the USA's December New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the USA's December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the Eurozone's December Manufacturing PMI will be announced successively.

In terms of financial events, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference regarding the operation of the national economy, and ECB President Lagarde will give a speech.

Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $HERBS GROUP (02593.HK)$ The IPO Subscription has ended.

December 17, Tuesday

Keywords: Eurozone December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; USA November Retail Sales Month-on-Month, USA November Industrial Production Month-on-Month

On Tuesday, economic data such as USA November Retail Sales Month-on-Month, USA November Industrial Production Month-on-Month, Eurozone December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, etc. will be released.

Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $XIAOCAIYUAN (00999.HK)$ The IPO Subscription has ended.

December 18, Wednesday.

Keywords: USA third quarter current account; Micron Technology earnings reports.

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the Eurozone November CPI year-on-year final value, USA November new housing starts annualized total, USA third quarter current account, USA EIA Crude Oil Product inventory data for the week ending December 13 will be released successively.

In terms of earnings reports, important Semiconductors companies in the USA. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ will announce their earnings.

In terms of new stocks, in the Hong Kong stock market. $HERBS GROUP (02593.HK)$ The lottery results will be announced. $DOBOT (02432.HK)$ The IPO Subscription has ended.

December 19th, Thursday.

Keywords: Federal Reserve, Japan Central Bank, Bank of England interest rate decisions; number of initial unemployment claims in the USA this week, final value of the annualized quarterly GDP for the third quarter; Herbs Generation Group Holdings Limited today announces its IPO listing.

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will come with significant news at 3:00 AM Beijing time, and the interest rate decision results from Japan, the United Kingdom, and other central banks will also be revealed. Additionally, the number of initial unemployment claims in the USA, the final value of the annualized quarterly GDP for the third quarter, and November’s Conference Board Leading Indicators data will be released sequentially.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 3:30 AM Beijing time, which is particularly noteworthy.

In terms of IPOs, in the Hong Kong stock market, $HERBS GROUP (02593.HK)$ the IPO will be listed today, $XIAOCAIYUAN (00999.HK)$ will announce the lottery results.

December 20, Friday

Keywords: USA's November Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year; Carnival Cruise Earnings Reports; Little Gardens IPO listed today

On Friday, regarding economic data, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator—Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be revealed, in addition, China's one-year loan market quote rate, Japan's Core CPI Year-on-Year, USA's November Personal Spending Month-on-Month, and the December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also be announced successively.

In terms of Earnings Reports, the USA cruise giant $Carnival (CCL.US)$ will release its report before the USA market opens.

In terms of IPOs, in the Hong Kong stock market, $XIAOCAIYUAN (00999.HK)$ is listing today, $DOBOT (02432.HK)$ will announce the lottery results.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/new