王信在谈及下一阶段货币政策实施具体考虑时表示，总量上要加大力度，充分满足有效资金需求，推动资金充分流向实体经济。在流动性层面，目前我国平均存款准备金率是6.6%，进一步降准还有空间。央行开展二级市场国债买卖的探索也更趋成熟，未来要搭配用好多种货币政策工具，提供充足的中长期流动性，保持银行体系流动性充裕。在金融总量层面，要引导银行以金融五篇大文章，房地产、“两重”、“两新”的重点领域为抓手，加强项目储备，加大信贷投放，努力实现社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。① There is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements, and the trading of national bonds in the secondary market is becoming more mature; ② Interest rate policies will be adjusted appropriately and timely in accordance with changes in the situation to increase counter-cyclical adjustment efforts; ③ The key is to ensure smooth transmission of interest rate policies, as the pressure on Banks' net interest margins partly stems from the simultaneous irrationality on both deposit and loan sides.
On December 14, the China International Economic Exchange Center held the 2024-2025 China Economic Annual Conference, with Wang Xin, head of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, in attendance and delivering a speech.
There is still room for further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio; exploration of secondary market treasury bond trading is becoming more mature.
Wang Xin, discussing the specific considerations for the next stage of Monetary Policy implementation, stated that in terms of overall quantity, efforts must be increased to fully meet the effective demand for funds and promote adequate funding flowing into the real economy. In terms of liquidity, the current average reserve requirement ratio in our country is 6.6%, with further room for reduction. The central bank's exploration in secondary market trading of treasury bonds is also becoming more mature. In the future, various monetary policy tools should be appropriately combined to provide sufficient medium and long-term liquidity and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. In terms of overall financial quantity, banks should be guided to focus on key areas, such as the five major financial articles, Real Estate, "Two Doubles," and "Two News," strengthen project reserves, increase Crediting, and strive to match the scale of social financing and money supply with the economic growth and price level expectations.
Interest rate policy will adjust appropriately in response to changing circumstances, increasing counter-cyclical regulation as needed.
Wang Xin mentioned that while guiding interest rates to decline, it is also necessary to balance support for the development of the real economy with the stability and health of banks themselves. The key is to enhance the enforcement of interest rate policy and ensure smooth policy transmission. Wang Xin stated that in recent times, the net interest margin of commercial banks has continued to narrow, which generally aligns with objective laws. Due to the differing repricing cycles of deposit and loan interest rates, during periods of declining interest rates, the net interest margin typically tends to narrow. However, an important reason in our country is the simultaneous irrationality of banks on both the deposit and loan sides; certain large clients hold significant bargaining power, leading to deviations in the implementation of interest rate policies, where loan rates decrease quickly, but deposit rates remain unchanged, which not only disturbs market competition but also causes capital to accumulate for arbitrage, potentially impacting the sound management of banks and constraining the flexible adjustment of Monetary Policy.
The key is to ensure smooth transmission of interest rate policies; the pressure on banks' net interest margins partly stems from synchronous irrational behavior on both the deposit and loan ends.
Wang Xin, discussing specific considerations for the next stage of Monetary Policy implementation, reiterated the need to guide interest rates downward while also balancing support for the real economy and maintaining the soundness and health of banks. The key here is to strengthen interest rate policy enforcement and ensure smooth policy transmission. Wang Xin noted that the narrowing net interest margin of commercial banks over the past period generally aligns with objective laws; due to the differing repricing cycles of deposit and loan interest rates, the net interest margin typically narrows during periods of falling interest rates. However, another significant reason in our country is the simultaneous irrational behavior of banks on both ends of deposits and loans, with certain major clients possessing strong bargaining leverage, resulting in deviations in the execution of interest rate policy, where loan interest rates decrease rapidly while deposit rates remain stagnant, which not only disrupts market competition and results in capital accumulation for arbitrage but also affects banks' sound operations and constrains the flexible adjustment of Monetary Policy.
Various measures will be taken to further reduce the cost of social financing.
Wang Xin stated that in the next phase, the effectiveness of loan interest rate reform will be fully utilized, and various measures will be taken to further reduce the cost of social financing. Wang Xin mentioned that in the next five years, the scale of local hidden debt replacement will reach 10 trillion yuan, and at the same time, the reform of small financial institutions in various regions will mitigate risks, and the disposal of non-performing Assets is also being advanced. When these efforts are implemented, it will objectively pull down the growth rate of total financial volume, but ultimately it is a good thing, beneficial for unwinding the debt chain, allowing localities to unload burdens and operate more lightly, and also helps to improve the asset quality of financial institutions, maintain financial stability, and smoothen the economic cycle. Wang Xin indicated that interest rate policies will be adjusted in line with changing circumstances, and the counter-cyclical adjustment will be appropriately intensified, fully leveraging the effectiveness of loan interest rate reform, and taking various measures to further reduce the cost of social financing. While guiding interest rates to decline, there should also be a balanced consideration to support the development of the real economy and maintain the soundness and health of the banks themselves.
Director Wang Xin of the Central Bank Research Bureau: Timely reductions in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates will increase MMF Crediting efforts.
Wang Xin stated that there should be a moderate increase in the support of the MMF policy, timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and an increase in the issuance of MMF. Overall, next year's moderately loose MMF policy will build upon this year's supportive stance. A moderate increase in both quantitative and structural MMF support, timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, an increase in the issuance of MMF, and enhanced support for key Global Strategies, key areas, and weak links will make financing conditions for the real economy more relaxed, effectively meeting developmental needs, and helping achieve a stable growth, stable employment, and a reasonable rebound in prices for an optimized combination.
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