Homebuilders 2025 Outlook: 'More Cautious, Less Constructive,' Analyst Says
Homebuilders 2025 Outlook: 'More Cautious, Less Constructive,' Analyst Says
The level of existing homes for sale is rising in many key markets. New home supplies remain plentiful, the analyst noted. As a result, Rihault sees growth in home prices to moderate over the next year, slowing to a flat to slightly upward trend. JPMorgan analysts delivered a grim outlook for homebuilders on Friday as the firm moves to a "more cautious, less constructive" approach toward the industry.
摩根大通的分析師在週五對住房建築商給出了悲觀的前景，因爲該公司對行業板塊採取了更謹慎、較不積極的態度。
The JPMorgan analysts, led by Michael Rihault, gave multiple reasons for the shifted 2025 outlook. Renault pointed to several key housing demand drivers, including affordability, interest rates and employment growth, as unlikely to improve significantly in 2025.
摩根大通的分析師，由邁克爾·里豪特領導，列出了多項原因導致2025年展望的變化。裏諾指出，住房需求的幾個關鍵驅動因素，包括可負擔性、利率期貨和就業增長，預計在2025年不會有顯著改善。
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The level of existing homes for sale is rising in many key markets. New home supplies remain plentiful, the analyst noted. As a result, Rihault sees growth in home prices to moderate over the next year, slowing to a flat to slightly upward trend.
現有待售房屋的數量在許多關鍵市場上正在上升。分析師指出，新房供應仍然充足。因此，里豪特預計房價增長將在明年放緩，減緩至平穩或略微上升的趨勢。
JPMorgan analysts expect the incoming Trump administration's immigration policies to be potentially disruptive to the homebuilding industry due to the largest percentage of immigrants in the construction workforce since 2004.
摩根大通的分析師預計，特朗普政府的移民政策可能會對住房建築行業造成干擾，因爲自2004年以來建築勞動力中移民所佔比例最大。
Additionally, Rihaut sees return on equity and earnings growth slowing in 2025 with more downside risk than upside to gross margins and home sales pace.
此外，里豪特預計2025年股本回報率和盈利增長將放緩，毛利和新房銷售速度面臨更多下行風險而不是上行空間。
JPMorgan downgraded several homebuilders and lowered its price targets on the stocks.
摩根大通下調了幾家住房建築商的評級，並下調了其股票的價格目標。
Downgrades:
下調評級：
- JPMorgan's Rehaut downgraded D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) from Neutral to Underweight and lowered the price target from $188 to $156.
- 摩根大通的Rehaut將霍頓房屋公司（紐交所：DHI）評級從中立下調至減持，並將目標價格從188美元下調至156美元。
- Rehaut also downgraded Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $166 to $150.
- Rehaut還將托爾兄弟公司（紐交所：TOL）評級從增持下調至中立，並將目標價格從166美元下調至150美元。
- JPMorgan downgraded Meritage Homes Corp. (NYSE:MTH) from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $220 to $197.
- 摩根大通將Meritage Homes Corp.（紐交所：MTH）評級從增持下調至中立，並將目標價格從220美元下調至197美元。
Price Action: Shares of all three home builders are trading lower on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro. Toll Brothers shares are down 2.74% at $134.66, D.R. Horton shares are down 1.37% at $149.14 and Meritage Homes shares are down 4.72% at $169.07.
價格走勢：據Benzinga Pro，所有三家房建公司的股票在週五均出現下跌。托爾兄弟的股票下跌2.74%，報134.66美元，霍頓房屋的股票下跌1.37%，報149.14美元，Meritage Homes的股票下跌4.72%，報169.07美元。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
