On the evening of the 13th in Peking, the US stock market opened higher on Friday. After Broadcom released its Earnings Reports, its stock price surged, leading to a widespread increase in Technology stocks. The USA's import price Index for November was higher than expected. The market focus shifts to next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
As of the time of writing, the three major indexes showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 up 0.29%, the Dow down 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up 0.60%, reaching a new historical high during the day.
Broadcom's stock price surged as the company reported adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter that exceeded expectations and stated that its AI revenue for the year skyrocketed by 220%.
Tech stocks including Micron, NVIDIA, and AMD followed Broadcom's lead and rose.
The producer price index (PPI) for November, released on Thursday, exceeded expectations, indicating rising inflationary pressures.
On the same day, US stocks closed lower, with the Dow down about 0.5%, marking a decline for the sixth consecutive trading day, setting the longest losing streak since April. The Nasdaq fell nearly 0.7% and dropped below the 0.02 million point mark. The S&P 500 Index closed down about 0.5%.
After the results of the US elections were confirmed in early November, US stocks experienced a strong rally, while also triggering concerns among some that US stocks have been overvalued post-election.
Wall Street strategists pointed out a troubling trend as US stocks continue to reach new highs: the number of stocks supporting the market's rise is dwindling. The S&P 500 Index has seen a situation where the number of declining stocks has outnumbered advancing stocks for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest record since 2004.
This situation indicates that the foundation for the rebound of US stocks is weakening, as the surge in Technology stocks has strongly offset the weaknesses in Other stocks.
Although a top-heavy market is nothing new, the stock market has risen by 27% this year, which only intensifies concerns that valuations seem too high and positions have increased.
Strategists at SentimentTrader describe this phenomenon as the 'early cracks' in a 'long-term, strong' bull market for US stocks. They wrote in a report to clients: 'Investors have begun to hesitate.'
However, some Wall Street professionals believe that there may still be greater upside potential for US stocks.
Joe Terranova, Chief Market Strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, stated: "I believe we are in a moment of optimism, but not overextended. The reason I am skeptical about whether the market can once again rise actively like it did in the past two years is that everyone is bullish."
He believes that investors should focus on specific Sectors now rather than the overall rise of the stock market.
On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US Labor Statistics Bureau reported that US import prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month in November. The median expectation was for a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, with estimates from 28 surveyed economists ranging from a decline of 0.4% to an increase of 0.3%. The import price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month in October.
In November, the import price index rose by 1.3% year-on-year.
The core import price index, excluding food and fuel, remained stable year-on-year.
The import price, excluding oil, rose by 0.2% month-on-month, increasing by 0.2% in October.
Export prices remained stable month-on-month, rising by 1% in October; and increased by 0.8% year-on-year.
Market focus has shifted to next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Traders are assessing the impact of higher-than-expected US jobless claims and mixed data on producer prices on next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
The Federal Reserve will hold its last monetary policy meeting of the year from December 17 to 18. Swap markets indicate that traders see a 95% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting.
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November show that Fed officials believe that gradual rate cuts and a shift to a more neutral policy stance may be appropriate if the economy performs as expected.
Societe Generale warns that a reliable historical warning sign of an economic recession—rising unemployment—is "flashing red" in the US job market. This indicator has successfully predicted every recession in the past 75 years.
Societe Generale has been warning of a potential recession in the USA, and now the labor market has sounded the alarm. According to the latest employment report, the unemployment rate in the USA rose to 4.2% in November.
According to the analysis of the bank, this means that the unemployment rate in the USA has exceeded the 36-month moving average level, and since 1950, every time this situation has occurred, it has been accompanied by an economic recession.
Bank strategist Albert Edwards wrote that the 36-month moving average unemployment rate typically only rises when the USA is already "in recession."
Focus on individual stocks
The Philadelphia Semiconductors Sector has risen broadly, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ increased by over 20%, $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$Increased by over 9%.
Cryptocurrency concept stocks generally rise. $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$Increased by more than 5%, $Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR.US)$Increased by over 4%.
$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Increased by over 20%, driven by strong AI demand, with Q4 earnings exceeding expectations, huge opportunities are expected in the next three years.
"Competitors".$Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$Increased by more than 10%.
Furniture retailer$Restoration Hardware (RH.US)$Increased by more than 15%, the company achieved profitability in Q3, with revenue growth accompanied by a successful brand transformation.
Editor/ping