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An Intrinsic Calculation For Paycor HCM, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYCR) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued

An Intrinsic Calculation For Paycor HCM, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYCR) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued

對Paycor HCm公司(納斯達克:PYCR)的內在價值計算顯示其被低估了47%
Simply Wall St ·  12/13 22:12

Key Insights

關鍵洞察

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Paycor HCM fair value estimate is US$38.47
  • Current share price of US$20.25 suggests Paycor HCM is potentially 47% undervalued
  • Analyst price target for PYCR is US$21.19 which is 45% below our fair value estimate
  • 使用兩階段自由現金流折現模型,Paycor HCm 的公允價值估計爲 38.47 美元
  • 當前股票價格爲 20.25 美元,表明 Paycor HCm 可能被低估了 47%
  • 分析師對 PYCR 的價格目標爲 21.19 美元,比我們的公允價值估計低 45%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Paycor HCM, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYCR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

在本文中,我們將通過對 Paycor HCm, Inc. (納斯達克:PYCR) 預計未來現金流進行折現來估算其內在價值。我們的分析將採用折現現金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,這並不難理解,正如您在我們的示例中看到的那樣!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

不過請記住,評估公司的價值有很多方法,而自由現金流折現(DCF)僅僅是一種方法。任何對內在價值感興趣的人都應該閱讀一下Simply Wall St的分析模型。

The Calculation

計算

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們將使用兩階段的DCF模型,顧名思義,它考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個較高的增長期,隨着時間推移趨於終值,這在第二個「穩定增長」階段中體現。首先,我們需要估算未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些不可用時,我們會從上一個估計或報告的值中推斷前一個自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流減少的公司將減緩其衰退速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在此期間將其增長速度放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映出前幾年的增長往往比後幾年更爲緩慢。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

折現現金流(DCF)的核心思想是,未來的一美元不如今天的一美元有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行折現,以得出現值估算:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由現金流(FCF)預測

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$59.5m US$87.0m US$117.9m US$149.4m US$202.2m US$242.2m US$277.6m US$308.1m US$334.3m US$356.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x10 Analyst x9 Analyst x5 Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Est @ 19.75% Est @ 14.61% Est @ 11.01% Est @ 8.50% Est @ 6.73%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3% US$56.0 US$77.1 US$98.3 US$117 US$149 US$168 US$181 US$190 US$194 US$194
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
槓桿自由現金流($萬) 5950萬美元 8700萬美元 1.179億美元 1.494億美元 2.022億美元 2.422億美元 2.776億美金 3.081億美金 3.343億美金 3.568億美金
成長率估計來源 分析師共有10位 分析師 x9 分析師 x5 分析師 x3 分析師 x3 估計 @ 19.75% 估計 @ 14.61% 估計 @ 11.01% 預估 @ 8.50% 估計 @ 6.73%
現值($萬)按 6.3% 折現 美金56.0 美金77.1 美金98.3 美金117 美金149 美元168 美國$181 美元190 194美元 194美元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.4b

("預估" = 由Simply Wall St估計的自由現金流增長率)
10年現金流現值(PVCF) = 美金14億

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.

第二階段也稱爲終值,這是業務在第一階段後的現金流。由於多種原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,該增長率不能超過一個國家的GDP增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期國債收益率的5年平均值(2.6%)來估算未來增長。與10年『增長』週期相同,我們將未來現金流折現至今天的價值,使用6.3%的資本成本。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$357m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (6.3%– 2.6%) = US$10b

終值(TV)= 自由現金流2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = 3.57億美元× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (6.3%– 2.6%) = 100億美元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$10b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= US$5.5b

終值現值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= 100億美元÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= 55億美元

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$6.9b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$20.3, the company appears quite undervalued at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

總價值或股權價值是未來現金流的現值總和,在這種情況下爲69億美金。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股總數。與當前股價20.3美元相比,公司在股票當前交易價格的基礎上顯得非常低估,折扣達47%。不過,估值畢竟是一種不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣——移動幾個度數就會進入不同的星系。請牢記這一點。

big
NasdaqGS:PYCR Discounted Cash Flow December 13th 2024
納斯達克GS:PYCR 折現現金流 2024年12月13日

The Assumptions

假設

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Paycor HCM as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.883. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

上述計算非常依賴於兩個假設。第一個是折現率,另一個是現金流。如果您不同意這些結果,可以自己動手進行計算並調整假設。DCF也沒有考慮行業的可能週期性或公司的未來資本需求,因此沒有給出公司潛在表現的完整圖景。考慮到我們作爲潛在股東在看Paycor HCM,使用股本成本作爲折現率,而不是資本成本(或加權平均資本成本WACC),而WACC是包括債務的。在這個計算中,我們使用了6.3%,這是基於0.883的槓桿貝塔。貝塔是比較股票與整個市場波動性的指標。我們從全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔中獲取我們的貝塔,強加了0.8到2.0之間的限制,這是穩定業務的合理範圍。

Looking Ahead:

展望未來:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Paycor HCM, we've compiled three pertinent items you should explore:

儘管公司的估值很重要,但這只是評估公司時需要考慮的衆多因素之一。折現現金流模型並不是投資估值的全部和最終的答案。相反,折現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,以查看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司資本成本或無風險利率的變化可以顯著影響估值。導致股價低於內在價值的原因是什麼?對於Paycor HCm,我們整理了三個相關項目供您探索:

  1. Financial Health: Does PYCR have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does PYCR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 財務健康:PYCR的資產負債表是否健康?請查看我們免費的資產負債表分析,以六個簡單的關鍵因素檢查槓桿和風險。
  2. 未來收益:PYCR的增長率與其同行和整體市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入挖掘即將到來的年份的分析師共識數字。
  3. 其他穩健業務:低負債、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強大業務的基礎。爲何不探索我們的互動股票列表,查看是否還有其他你可能未曾考慮的公司!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

市銷率。Simply Wall St每天更新每隻美國股票的DCF計算,因此如果你想查找其他股票的內在價值,只需在這裏搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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