Hot News

• On Friday, the three major equity index futures in the USA rose broadly in Pre-Market Trading.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector rose broadly in Pre-Market Trading, with Broadcom up over 17% and Marvell Technology up over 5%.

• Most Growth Tech stocks rose in Pre-Market Trading, with Taiwan Semiconductor up over 2%, NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices up over 1%.

• Tesla has launched the ASS feature in China, applicable to vehicles with EAP or FSD.

Following the USA, Europe, and the Middle East, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$the Advanced Smart Summon (Actually Smart Summon, ASS) feature has officially launched in China. This American electric vehicle manufacturer announced on Weibo on December 13 that the ASS feature has gone live in China, allowing Tesla owners to operate their vehicles through the Tesla app on their phones, enabling the vehicle to autonomously leave its parking spot and drive to the owner's location or a designated position via the phone, while the vehicle must remain within the owner's line of sight during the movement.

• Broadcom's Pre-Market Trading rose over 18%, driven by strong demand for AI, with Q4 earnings surpassing expectations, and significant opportunities anticipated over the next three years.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Pre-Market Trading rose over 18%. The performance report shows that Q4 revenue was 14.054 billion USD, a 51% year-on-year increase, slightly below the market expectation of 14.08 billion USD. Under Non-GAAP accounting standards, the adjusted EPS was 1.42 USD, better than the market expectation of 1.38 USD. Looking ahead, Broadcom expects first-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2025 to be 14.6 billion USD, representing a 22% year-on-year increase, closely aligning with market expectations; the company anticipates that adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter will account for 66% of revenue.

• Influenced by Broadcom's optimistic performance guidance, AI custom chip companies. $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ In Pre-Market Trading, it rose nearly 6%.

• Another victory! Following the 5G chips, it's rumored that Apple will launch its self-developed Bluetooth + Wi-Fi chip in 2025.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$Plans to switch to self-developed Bluetooth and Wi-Fi combo chips starting in 2025. This move aims to improve device performance and energy efficiency while reducing dependence on Broadcom (AVGO.US). According to insiders, the new chip is internally codenamed "Proxima," has been in development for several years, and is now slated for initial production in 2025, beginning with the iPhone 17 series, Apple TV, and HomePod mini, and will expand to the iPad and Mac product lines in 2026.

• Meta releases a new AI model that will enhance the Metaverse experience.

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$On Thursday, it was announced that an AI model named Meta Motivo will be released, capable of controlling the movements of a human-like digital avatar, potentially enhancing the experience of the Metaverse. Meta also released several AI models for developers to use free of charge, believing that an open approach can foster the creation of better tools for its services, thereby benefiting its business.

• Multiple bullish factors combined, Taiwan Semiconductor surged over 2% in Pre-Market Trading.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Surging over 2% in Pre-Market Trading. According to insiders, Taiwan Semiconductor is working to integrate CoWoS and SiPh, seeking to launch Co-Packaged Optical Devices (CPO) by 2026. Additionally, it is reported that Apple is collaborating with Broadcom to develop an AI Chip, which will bring significant L to Taiwan Semiconductor's advanced processes. Moreover, the company's first factory in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, is approaching mass production.

• Costco's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with affluent customers still showing resilience in their spending.

$Costco (COST.US)$In the first quarter, revenue was 62.15 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, better than market expectations; EPS was 4.04 USD, exceeding market expectations. Costco stated that the performance included a tax benefit of 0.1 billion USD related to stock compensation. Costco reported that membership numbers increased in the first quarter, with about 90% of existing members renewing their services. This result solidifies Costco's unique position among retailers in the USA, as its affluent customer base is willing to pay the annual membership fee, which helps the company maintain robust performance.

As of publication, Costco is up 0.09% in Pre-Market Trading.

• Intel's interim CEO admitted that if the 18A technology is not successful, the foundry division may be spun off.

At Thursday's Barclays investment banking conference, $Intel (INTC.US)$ the interim co-CEO made further comments on the fate of the chip foundry division. Two executives acknowledged that if the new chip manufacturing technology 18A planned for release next year does not achieve the expected success, Intel may be forced to sell its chip foundry division.

• Eli Lilly and Co's Mounjaro has replaced Novo-Nordisk A/S's Wegovy as the new favorite weight loss drug in the United Kingdom.

Data from online pharmacies indicates that the number of private purchasers of weight loss drugs in the United Kingdom continues to grow, among which$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$Mounjaro is gradually surpassing$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$Wegovy, becoming the new favorite among consumers. This phenomenon signifies that the American pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly and Co is gradually closing in on its competitor Novo-Nordisk A/S in the European market. Several online pharmacies and patients have reported that Mounjaro is favored for its more significant weight loss effects, despite its initial dosage price being 40% higher than Wegovy.

• Furniture retailer$Restoration Hardware (RH.US)$rises over 14% in pre-market trading, with the company's Q3 performance turning profitable, revenue growth accompanying successful brand transformation.

• Broadcom surged over 18% in Pre-Market Trading! Multiple Call options have been preemptively placed.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ After-hours results were announced, and now in Pre-Market Trading, it has surged over 18%. The volume of Options before earnings increased to 0.6 million contracts, about three times the average volume over the past 30 days, with a bullish ratio of 63.7%. Several Call options have been preemptively placed, with the most traded being those expiring today, with strike prices of $185/$190/$200.

Global macro

• Is the USA unemployment rate signaling a red light? Societe Generale warns: risks of recession will be faced next year.

Société Générale stated that a historically reliable economic recession indicator is signaling "red lights" in the USA job market - this indicator has successfully predicted every economic recession in the past 75 years. The signal is the recent rise in the unemployment rate. According to the latest employment report, the unemployment rate in the USA rose to 4.2% in November. This means that the unemployment rate has now exceeded the 36-month moving average, a situation that has always coincided with the onset of economic recessions since 1950.

• The bullish trend in the USA stock market is overly concentrated! The concern over a "top-heavy" market is resurfacing.

Behind the new highs in the USA stock market lies a trend that worries Wall Street strategists: the number of stocks supporting the market's rise is decreasing. On the S&P 500 Index, the number of falling components exceeded the number of rising components for the ninth consecutive day at the market close, marking the longest streak since data collection began in 2004. This situation indicates that the foundation of the USA stock market rebound is weakening, with the surge in Growth Tech strongly offsetting the weakness of other stocks.

While a top-heavy market is not a new phenomenon, the stock market has risen by 27% this year, exacerbating concerns that valuations seem too high and positions have increased. According to strategists at SentimentTrader, this phenomenon is described as the "early cracks" of a "long-term, robust" bull market in the USA stock market. They wrote in their report to clients: "Investors have started to hesitate."

• Wall Street's "last bear", Stifel: The USA stock market will fall to 5000 points by the end of 2025.

Bears on Wall Street have nearly all turned bullish, with only a few institutions remaining bearish on the USA stock market. According to Barry Bannister, chief investment strategist at investment bank Stifel, the USA stock market will be below current levels by the end of 2025. Bannister believes that with economic growth slowing and inflation remaining high, the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, which will be a key catalyst for the eventual pullback in the stock market. Bannister expects the S&P 500 Index to fall to around 5000 points by 2025.

• Will Trump be unable to achieve his goals? The tax reduction policy may not be able to drive economic growth in the USA.

Donald Trump, a presidential candidate in the USA, stated that extending tax cuts will stimulate investment and promote economic growth in the USA - this promise helped him win the election in November. However, the latest analysis from the nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), warns that extending the tax cuts set to expire next year will have almost no impact on economic growth. Republicans are using the costly legislation extension as a way to boost the economy, but many voters feel this legislation has not served them.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder of Macroeconomic Events in the USA

(All in Peking Time)

21:30 USA November Import Price Index Monthly Rate.

Next early morning

01:00 Federal Reserve announces capital flows for the third quarter of 2024.

02:00 Total number of oil drilling rigs in the USA for the week ending December 13.

Editor/ping