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Global M&A Deal Value on Track to Reach $3.5 Trillion in 2024--Bain & Company

Global M&A Deal Value on Track to Reach $3.5 Trillion in 2024--Bain & Company

全球貨幣M&A交易價值預計在2024年達到3.5萬億--貝恩公司
PR Newswire ·  2024/12/12 12:00

New research from Bain finds an increasing number of M&A practitioners used generative AI in dealmaking processes this year, reporting it saves effort, time, and cost

貝恩的新研究發現,今年越來越多的併購從業者在交易過程中使用了生成性人工智能,並報告稱這節省了努力、時間和成本。

NEW YORK, Dec. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The 2024 M&A market is ending the year much as it began—with anticipation for a break in the buyer-seller logjam. The year has been marked by careful adaption as dealmakers accommodate the new realities of higher interest rates and intense regulatory scrutiny.

紐約,2024年12月12日 /PRNewswire/ -- 2024年的併購市場與年初一樣,結束時依然充滿對買賣雙方僵局打破的期待。這一年以謹慎的適應爲標誌,交易者調整以應對更高的利率和嚴格的監管審查的新現實。

Bain & Company predicts overall deal value will reach $3.5 trillion by the end of 2024, up 15% year over year and consistent with mid-2010s levels. Global M&A deal volume is up 7% year over year, reversing a two-year decline.

貝恩公司預測,到2024年底,整體交易價值將達到3.5萬億美元,同比增長15%,與2010年代中期水平一致。全球併購交易量同比增長7%,扭轉了兩年的下降趨勢。

The narrative varies by category of dealmakers. As interest rates moved slightly lower, private equity and venture capital regained ground, with private equity deal value up 29% and venture capital's up 30% year over year. Corporate M&A, which is less influenced by small movements in the cost of debt, is on track to end the year 12% above 2023, with steady growth across all regions. Healthy strategic activity in energy & natural resources, industrials, and financial services, and notable growth in retail and telecommunications contributed to these gains. However, technology and healthcare & life sciences, typical M&A strongholds, remain well under historical levels.

不同類別的交易者敘事各異。隨着利率略微下降,私募股權和創投恢復了勢頭,私募股權的交易價值同比增長29%,創投增長30%。企業併購受到債務成本小幅波動的影響較小,預計年底將比2023年高出12%,在所有地區保持穩定增長。能源和自然資源、工業以及金融服務領域的健康戰略活動,以及零售和電信領域的顯著增長爲這些增長做出了貢獻。然而,科技和醫療健康及生命科學等典型的併購強項仍遠低於歷史水平。

"Despite strong balance sheets and a strategic need for M&A in 2024, dealmakers didn't see the positive momentum they hoped for on interest rates, seller willingness to exit, and regulatory scrutiny that would drive a full recovery this year," said Suzanne Kumar, executive vice president of Bain & Company's M&A and Divestitures practice. "The most effective dealmakers did two things well: they adapted quickly to the realities of the market—shifting from traditional approaches to embrace both revenue and cost synergies. And they continued to hone their M&A capabilities as frequent acquirers, focusing on screening, negotiating, and leveraging new tools, such as generative AI, to streamline the process."

"儘管財務狀況良好且2024年對併購有戰略需求,交易者沒有看到他們對利率、賣方退出意願和監管審查的積極動向,這些應能推動今年的全面復甦," 貝恩公司併購與剝離事業部執行副總裁蘇珊娜·庫馬爾表示。"最有效的交易者做得很好:他們迅速適應市場現實——從傳統方法轉向同時關注營業收入和成本的協同效應。他們繼續磨練自身的併購能力,作爲頻繁收購者,專注於篩選、談判,以及利用新的工具如生成性人工智能來簡化流程。"

Languishing deals amid historically low valuations

在歷史低估值中痛苦掙扎的交易

Bain's survey of more than 300 M&A executives found the primary drag on M&A activity remains the buyer-seller valuation expectations gap. A key contributing factor is the distance between historically low strategic M&A valuations (10.4x EBITDA/EV) and high public market valuations (16.6x for S&P 500).

貝恩對300多名併購高管的調查發現,買賣雙方的估值預期差距依然是併購活動的主要拖累因素。一個關鍵因素是歷史低戰略併購估值(10.4倍EBITDA/EV)與高公共市場估值(S&P 500的16.6倍)之間的差距。

Rather than face substantial markdowns at exit, private equity and venture capital investors dug in with their portfolios. Private and public companies with the option to hold did, too. So, with less competition and a lack of urgency, some deals simply languished.

爲了避免在退出時面臨大幅降價,股權投資和創投投資者開始穩住他們的投資組合。擁有持有選項的私營和上市公司也是如此。因此,隨着競爭減少和缺乏緊迫性,有些交易只是靜靜地被擱置。

Navigating regulatory scrutiny and prolonged close periods

應對監管審查和漫長的交易週期

As challenges and litigation extended deal close timelines and impacted close rates in 2024, nearly half (47%) of dealmakers said regulatory concerns impacted the types of deals their company considered this year. In response, many are revising deal strategies and spending more time screening up front, evaluating attractive deals for antitrust concerns early. Some put deals on hold pending the outcome of national elections, hoping for more clarity on the future regulatory environment.

由於挑戰和訴訟使交易完成時間延長,並影響了2024年的完成率,近一半(47%)的交易者表示,監管擔憂影響了他們公司今年考慮的交易類型。作爲回應,許多人正在修訂交易策略,並花更多時間進行前期篩選,提前評估吸引人的交易是否存在反壟斷問題。一些交易因等待國家選舉結果而被擱置,希望能更清晰地了解未來的監管環境。

This dynamic created a barbell effect where companies prioritized either small, under-the-radar deals or large deals with huge value creation potential, while deprioritizing midsized deals. In 2024, deals valued at less than $1 billion accounted for 95% of all activity, and the number of those deals grew for the first time in four years. Megadeals—namely, those valued at greater than $5 billion—propped up deal value.

這種動態創造了一個槓鈴效應,企業優先考慮小型、低調的交易或具有巨大價值創造潛力的大型交易,同時不再優先考慮中型交易。在2024年,估值低於10億的交易佔所有活動的95%,這些交易的數量四年來首次增長。超級交易——即估值超過50億的交易——支撐了交易價值。

Bain expects changes in US and EU administration, as well as updated guidelines in India and Japan, augur well for more open postures to regulation ahead, but the timing, degree, and scope of any softening will likely be uneven by sector and market.

貝恩預計美國和歐盟政府的變化,以及印度和日本更新的指導方針,預示着未來對監管的更開放態度,但任何放鬆的時機、程度和範圍可能會因行業和市場而異。

Adapting strategies to new realities of higher interest rates

調整策略以適應利率上升的新現實

In response to persistently high interest rates, strategic acquirers were more selective in their deals, required more concrete value creation, were less willing to pay for long-term top-line growth, and, most dramatically, adjusted to the new M&A value equation by pursuing both revenue and cost synergies in tandem.

針對持續高企的利率期貨,戰略收購方在交易中更加挑剔,要求更具實質性的價值創造,更不願爲長期的收入增長支付費用,並且最爲明顯的是,調整了新的併購價值方程,同時追求營業收入和成本協同效應。

In turn, scale deals, those intended to strengthen market leadership and lower cost position through benefits of scale, accounted for 59% of deal value in 2024—the highest proportion since 2015. This reflects a shift toward acquisitions that promised clear, bankable synergies within the first year and is a distinct reversal from the previous trend toward scope M&A—intended to accelerate top-line growth by entering or expanding into faster-growing market segments, or by bringing in new capabilities.

反過來,規模交易,即旨在通過規模效益增強市場領導地位和降低成本的交易,佔2024年交易價值的59%——自2015年以來的最高比例。這反映了對那些在第一年內承諾明確、可銀行化協同效應的收購的轉變,這與之前旨在通過進入或擴展到快速增長市場領域,或引入新能力來加速收入增長的併購趨勢形成鮮明對比。

Dealmakers increasingly rely on generative AI to save time and costs

交易商越來越依賴生成性人工智能來節省時間和成本

In 2024, early adopters used generative AI for sourcing, screening, and sharpening their overall diligence. Bain's survey found one in five M&A practitioners has used generative AI for M&A activities this year (up from 16% in 2023). An additional 16% expect to use it in the next twelve months.

在2024年,早期採用者利用生成性人工智能進行信息蒐集、篩選和整體盡職調查的優化。貝恩的調查發現,今年五分之一的併購從業者使用了生成性人工智能參與併購活動(較2023年的16%有所上升)。另外16%的人預計將在未來十二個月內使用它。

These early adopters report generative AI reduces manual effort (mentioned by 79% of users), accelerates timelines (54%), and reduces cost (33%).

這些早期採用者報告稱,生成性人工智能減少了手動工作(79%的用戶提到),加快了時間進度(54%),並降低了成本(33%)。

Looking ahead to 2025

展望2025年

Bain & Company will be releasing its full 2025 M&A Report in February, including a comprehensive analysis of what to expect from dealmaking in the year ahead; a deep dive on several key industries; and the full results of its M&A Practitioners' 2025 Outlook Survey—including perspectives on dealmaking from more than 300 M&A practitioners in the US, Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, and the UK.

貝恩公司將在2月份發佈2025年的全面併購報告,包括對即將到來的交易的全面分析;對幾個關鍵行業的深度探討;以及其併購從業者2025年前景調查的完整結果——包括來自美國、澳洲、巴西、加拿大、法國、德國、印度、意大利、日本和英國的300多名併購從業者的觀點。

Editor's note: To arrange an interview or for any questions, please contact:

編輯注:要安排採訪或有任何問題,請聯繫:

  • Katie Ware (New York) — Email: [email protected]
  • Gary Duncan (London) — Email: [email protected]
  • Ann Lee (Singapore) — Email: [email protected]
  • 凱蒂·韋爾 (紐約) — 電子郵件: [email protected]
  • 加里·鄧肯 (倫敦) — 電子郵件: [email protected]
  • 安·李 (新加坡) — 電子郵件:[email protected]

About Bain & Company

關於貝恩公司

Bain & Company is a global consultancy that helps the world's most ambitious change makers define the future.

貝恩公司是一家全球諮詢公司,幫助世界上最具雄心的變革者定義未來。

Across 65 cities in 40 countries, we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results, outperform the competition, and redefine industries. We complement our tailored, integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver better, faster, and more enduring outcomes. Our 10-year commitment to invest more than $1 billion in pro bono services brings our talent, expertise, and insight to organizations tackling today's urgent challenges in education, racial equity, social justice, economic development, and the environment. We earned a platinum rating from EcoVadis, the leading platform for environmental, social, and ethical performance ratings for global supply chains, putting us in the top 1% of all companies. Since our founding in 1973, we have measured our success by the success of our clients, and we proudly maintain the highest level of client advocacy in the industry.

在40個國家的65個城市,我們與客戶攜手合作,作爲一個團隊,共同追求卓越的成果,超越競爭對手,重新定義行業。我們將量身定製、綜合的專業知識與充滿活力的數字創新者生態系統相結合,以提供更好、更快和更持久的結果。我們承諾在10年內投入超過10億的無償服務,將我們的才華、專業知識和見解帶給應對教育、種族平等、社會正義、經濟發展和環境等當今緊迫挑戰的組織。我們獲得了EcoVadis的鉑金評級,EcoVadis是全球供應鏈環境、社會和倫理績效評級的領先平台,使我們躋身所有公司的前1%。自1973年成立以來,我們以客戶的成功作爲衡量我們成功的標準,並自豪地在行業內保持最高水平的客戶支持。

SOURCE Bain & Company

來源:貝恩公司

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