Is V.F (NYSE:VFC) A Risky Investment?
Is V.F (NYSE:VFC) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,與其擔心股票價格波動,不如說:'我擔心的風險是永久性損失的可能性……每一個我認識的務實投資者也都對此感到擔憂。'所以,聰明錢似乎知道,債務——通常與破產有關——在評估公司的風險性時是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是,V.F. Corporation (紐交所:VFC)確實負債。但是,這種債務對股東而言是個問題嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何時債務成爲問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
債務對企業的支持持續到企業難以用新資本或自由現金流償還時。資本主義的一個組成部分是'創造性破壞'的過程,失敗的企業被其銀行家無情地清算。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以廉價價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,只爲加強其資產負債表。不過,通過替代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資於增長的企業的極好工具。考慮公司的債務水平時,第一步是將其現金與債務一起考慮。
What Is V.F's Net Debt?
V.F的淨債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that V.F had debt of US$6.24b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$6.68b over a year. However, it also had US$492.5m in cash, and so its net debt is US$5.75b.
下圖可以點擊查看更詳細的信息,顯示截至2024年9月底,V.F的債務爲62.4億美元,較一年前的66.8億美元有所減少。不過,它的現金爲49250萬美元,因此其淨債務爲57.5億美元。
A Look At V.F's Liabilities
深入了解V.F的負債情況
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that V.F had liabilities of US$4.98b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$5.83b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$492.5m and US$1.82b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$8.50b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
仔細查看最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到V.F在12個月內到期的負債爲49.8億美元,而超過12個月的負債爲58.3億美元。另一方面,它擁有現金49250萬美元和18.2億美元的應收賬款,在一年內到期。所以它的負債總額比現金和短期應收款加起來多出85億美元。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$8.12b, we think shareholders really should watch V.F's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
考慮到這個缺口實際上高於公司市值81.2億美元,我們認爲股東真的應該像父母第一次看着孩子騎自行車那樣關注V.F的債務水平。假設情況下,如果公司被迫通過以當前股價融資來償還負債,將需要極其嚴重的稀釋。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我們通過查看公司的淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及計算息稅前利潤(EBIT)覆蓋利息費用的能力(利息保障率),來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力的情況。這種方法的優勢在於,我們同時考慮了債務的絕對量(通過淨債務與EBITDA的比率)和與該債務相關的實際利息費用(通過其利息保障率)。
Weak interest cover of 2.1 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.3 hit our confidence in V.F like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, V.F saw its EBIT tank 51% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine V.F's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
弱的利息保障倍數僅爲2.1倍,以及高達7.3的淨債務與EBITDA比率,像拳頭一樣直擊我們的信心。這裏的債務負擔很大。更糟的是,V.F的EBIT在過去12個月內下降了51%。如果收益繼續沿着這個軌跡發展,償還這筆債務將比說服我們在雨中馬拉松更加困難。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是開始的地方。但未來收益,尤其是高於任何其他因素,將判斷V.F在未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, V.F reported free cash flow worth 15% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
最後,一家公司只能用現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。因此,合理的步驟是查看那部分EBIT與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,V.F報告的自由現金流僅佔其EBIT的15%,這真的很低。對我們來說,這麼低的現金轉化率讓我們對其償還債務的能力感到些許擔憂。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both V.F's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think V.F has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example V.F has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
坦率地說,V.F的淨負債與EBITDA的比率以及其EBIT的增長記錄讓我們對其債務水平感到不安。即使是其總負債水平也未能激發我們太多的信心。在考慮了討論的數據點後,我們認爲V.F的債務過多。這種風險對於某些人來說是可以接受的,但顯然不符合我們的口味。毫無疑問,我們最了解的債務來自資產負債表。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。例如,V.F有2個警告信號(還有1個讓我們感到不適),我們認爲你應該知道。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資那些能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的業務,請查看這個自由名單,其中列出了在資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業。
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這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。