2025 Sales Growth Expected To Expand 7.6%: Kenanga
2025 Sales Growth Expected To Expand 7.6%: Kenanga
− Retail trade (7.1%; Sep: 5.5%): growth rose to a four-month high due to higher growth in non-specialised stores
Distributive trade sales grew 5.5% YoY (Sep: 3.8%), reaching a three-month high, indicating a strong start for the final quarter as domestic demand remained resilient. − MoM growth rebounded to 1.3% (Sep: -0.7%) to a three-month high. − Sales value (RM150.1b; Sep: RM148.2b): expanded to a record high, surpassing the RM150.0b mark for the first time.
分銷業銷售同比增長5.5%（9月：3.8%），達到三個月以來的最高點，表明最後一個季度開局強勁，國內需求依然強勁。− 月環比增長反彈至1.3%（9月：-0.7%），創下三個月以來的最高點。− 銷售額（RM150.1億；9月：RM148.2億）：擴展至創紀錄的高點，首次超過RM1500億。
A broad-based expansion led by strong retail trade − Motor vehicles (2.7%; Sep: -1.0%): rebounded due to higher sales of maintenance & repair (20.7%; Sep: 20.6%) and parts and accessories (9.8%; Sep: 8.5%). However, weak motor vehicle sales (-3.9%; Sep: -10.3%) capped the recovery, reflecting lower unit sales in October (69.9k units; Oct 2023: 76.2k).
由強勁的零售業推動的廣泛增長− 汽車（2.7%；9月：-1.0%）：由於維修和保養服務（20.7%；9月：20.6%）及零配件和附件（9.8%；9月：8.5%）的銷售增長而反彈。然而，疲軟的汽車銷售（-3.9%；9月：-10.3%）限制了回暖，反映出10月份的單位銷售下降（6.99萬台；2023年10月：7.62萬台）。
− Wholesale trade (4.8%; Sep: 3.6%): rose to a three-month high, supported by strong expansion in food, beverages & tobacco (8.9%; Sep: 7.9%), followed by agriculture, raw material and live animals (7.9%; Sep: 4.0%) and a slight rebound in other specialised wholesale (0.9%; Sep: -2.6%).
− 批發貿易（4.8%；9月：3.6%）：增長至三個月以來的最高點，受食品、飲料和菸草（8.9%；9月：7.9%）強勁擴張的支持，其次是農業、原材料和活體動物（7.9%；9月：4.0%），以及其他專門批發的輕微反彈（0.9%；9月：-2.6%）。
− Retail trade (7.1%; Sep: 5.5%): growth rose to a four-month high due to higher growth in non-specialised stores
(8.5%; Sep: 6.2%) and other goods in specialised stores (8.4%; Sep: 5.7%).
− 零售業（7.1%；9月：5.5%）：由於非專業商店的更高增長，增長上升至四個月以來的最高點。
（8.5%；9月：6.2%）和專業商店中的其他商品（8.4%；9月：5.7%）。
2024 sales growth forecast retained at 6.0% (2023: 7.7%); expected to expand to 7.6% in 2025
− Year-to-date performance: Sales growth grew 5.6% in the first 10 months of this year (Jan-Sep: 5.6%), below its
full-year target of 6.0%. Nevertheless, analysts expect momentum to accelerate towards year-end amid festive season
spending.
− Supporting factors: Growth will be supported by the government's phase 4 cash transfer under the Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) programme in November, salary hikes for government servants in December, a continued rise in tourist arrivals, and sustained domestic demand growth amid improving household incomes.
2024年的銷售增長預測保持在6.0%（2023年：7.7%）；預計到2025年擴展至7.6%。
− 年初至今表現：在今年前10個月銷售增長爲5.6%（1月至9月：5.6%），低於其目標。
全年目標爲6.0%。然而，分析師預計在節日季節臨近之際，勢頭將加速。
支出。
− 支持因素：在11月，政府在Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR)項目下的第四階段現金轉移將爲增長提供支持，12月政府工作人員的工資增長，遊客到達人數持續增加，以及家庭收入改善帶動的國內需求持續增長。
− GDP growth outlook: Given that 3Q24 GDP growth matched expectations (5.3%; 2Q24: 5.9%) and is projected to moderate further in the final quarter to 4.6% as the economy normalises, the local house maintains its 2024 GDP growth forecast at 5.0% (2023: 3.6%) and expect it to moderate slightly to 4.8% in 2025.
− GDP增長展望：鑑於2024年第三季度GDP增長符合預期（5.3%；2024年第二季度：5.9%），預計在最後一個季度將進一步減緩至4.6%，隨着經濟的正常化，地方機構保持其2024年GDP增長預測爲5.0%（2023年：3.6%），並預計在2025年略微減緩至4.8%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
