Duolingo Trades At Peak Valuation, Analyst Downgrades It
Duolingo Trades At Peak Valuation, Analyst Downgrades It
Duolingo Inc (NASDAQ:DUOL) stock fell after B of A Securities analyst Curtis Nagle downgraded the rating from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $375, up from $355.
Duolingo公司（納斯達克：DUOL）的股票在BofA證券分析師Curtis Nagle將評級從買入下調至中立，並將目標價上調至375美元（之前爲355美元）後下跌。
The downgrade reflects less upside potential as the stock traded at peak valuation, and near-term estimate revisions may be lower than in prior quarters.
此次下調反映了由於股票處於高峰估值，未來上漲潛力較小，並且短期的估計修正可能低於前幾個季度。
Nagle continued to see Duolingo as one of the highest-quality and most consistent growth names within the Internet and noted the potential for 40% EBITDA margins (versus 26% now) and over 20% GAAP net income margins (versus 13% now) over the long term.
Nagle繼續認爲Duolingo是互聯網領域中質量最高和增長最穩定的公司之一，並指出長期內有40%的EBITDA利潤率（目前爲26%）和超過20%的GAAP淨利潤率（目前爲13%）的潛力。
Also Read: STMicroelectronics and Qualcomm Launch New IoT Module to Simplify Wireless Connectivity
另請參閱：意法半導體和高通推出新的物聯網模塊以簡化無線連接。
Duolingo's ability to grow users virally (marketing is only 11% of sales versus 15% for sub-peers), nearly double subscribers as a percent of users, scale international markets, and expand high ARPU tiers such as Duolingo Max are all compelling long-term growth opportunities.
Duolingo通過病毒式營銷（市場營銷僅佔銷售額的11%，而訂閱用戶數的同業爲15%），幾乎將訂閱用戶數佔用戶數的比例翻倍，拓展國際市場，以及擴展高ARPU等級，如Duolingo Max，都是具有吸引力的長期增長機會。
Duolingo has a strong track record of beating estimates and raising guidance, which has supported an increase in valuation over the past several years (DUOL's EV/sales multiple increased post-earnings in 9 of the past 11 quarters).
Duolingo在超出預期和上調指引方面的表現優異，這支持了最近幾年估值的提升（DUOL的企業價值/銷售倍數在過去11個季度中有9個季度在業績公佈後上升）。
However, the magnitude of beats and raises has narrowed in recent quarters, and valuation is now at peak levels, which, all else equal, sets a much stricter bar going into the fourth-quarter earnings print.
然而，近幾個季度超出預期和上調指引的幅度有所縮小，估值目前處於高峰水平，這在其他條件相同的情況下，爲第四季度業績設定了更嚴格的門檻。
Nagle expects revenues and EBITDA above current Street estimates, but a miss on DAUs or only a modest beat on revenues could negatively impact shares. Both the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2024 marked lower-than-average beats, and shares rose post-print, but Nagle noted that in the first quarter of 2024, Duolingo reported its most minor beat on DAU and revenue and shares fell nearly 20%.
Nagle預計營業收入和EBITDA將高於當前市場的估計，但用戶數（DAUs）未達預期或僅小幅超出營業收入可能會對股票產生負面影響。2024年第二季度和第三季度的超出預期幅度均低於平均水平，股票在業績發佈後上漲，但Nagle指出在2024年第一季度，Duolingo報告的DAU和營業收入的超出預期幅度是最小的，股票下跌近20%。
The price target is based on 14 times 2026 EV/Sales, a premium to high-growth subscription service comps, which trade at 9 times. Nagle noted that the premium is justified given significantly higher projected revenue growth and higher gross and EBITDA margins.
該目標價格基於2026年14倍的企業價值/銷售比，這一溢價高於交易於9倍的高速增長訂閱服務可比公司。Nagle指出，考慮到預期的營業收入增長顯著更高以及更高的毛利率和 EBITDA 率，這一溢價是合理的。
Nagle expects fourth-quarter revenue of $206 million and EPS of $0.46.
Nagle預期第四季度營業收入爲20600萬，每股收益爲0.46美元。
Price Action: DUOL stock is down 7.36% at $335.18 at last check Wednesday.
價格動態：DUOL股票在最新檢查時下跌了7.36%，價格爲335.18美元。
Also Read:
另請閱讀：
- Photronics Q4 Earnings: Beats Expectations, CEO Credits Strong US Sales, 2025 Backed By AI, Edge Computing, And Supply Chain Trends
- 福尼克斯第四季度收益：超出預期，首席執行官歸功於強勁的美國銷售，2025年依靠人工智能、邊緣計算和供應鏈趨勢。
Photo via Shutterstock
照片來源於Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
