Jinwu Financial News | Guosen issued a Research Report indicating that HAIDILAO (06862) experienced a net income loss of 4.16 billion yuan in 2021 (with store impairment losses exceeding 3.65 billion yuan). To respond to the crisis, HAIDILAO launched the "Woodpecker Plan" in November 2021 to enhance its operational efficiency, and achieved a net income of 1.638 billion yuan in 2022, successfully turning a profit. With operational improvements, the company initiated the "Hard Nut Plan," considering the reopening of some stores previously closed under the Woodpecker Plan. From 2023 to 2024, the company continuously demonstrated a high level of performance against industry trends, achieving an annual revenue of 41.45 billion yuan and a net income of 4.499 billion yuan, reaching a new high since its listing. In the mid-term report of 2024, HAIDILAO announced the "Pomegranate Plan," aimed at encouraging the incubation and development of more new Dining brands, planning to invest more resources in new brand incubation in the context of a steadily recovering external macro environment.

The organization stated that from 2023 to 2024, the company proved its leading operational adjustment capability in a weak market environment. Looking ahead to 2025, with the warming of per capita spending and steady performance in table turnover, same-store sales are expected to return to a growth path. Moreover, with the empowerment of the "Pomegranate Plan," the expansion of newly branded, Yanzhao BBQ is expected to accelerate, and profitability is secured through the collaboration of the supply chain and store staffing.

The organization continued to indicate that with relatively neutral same-store growth and a cautious outlook on new store openings, the forecast for net income for 2024-2026 is set at 4.62/5.12/5.62 billion yuan, corresponding to growth rates of 3%/11%/10%, with dynamic PE ratios of 19/17/15x. Under optimistic assumptions, both table turnover rates and per capita spending remain stable or increase, and the BBQ brand is expected to grow faster. It is anticipated that the net income for 2025-2026 will reach 5.83/7.16 billion yuan, corresponding to growth rates of 3%/26%/23%, with dynamic PE ratios of 15/12x. Referring to the historical valuation review of HAIDILAO (growth stage PE valuations can reach 60-80x), HAIDILAO is currently at a turning point in same-store and new brand operations. The organization is bullish on the company's prospects for double growth after a reversal in operational logic, maintaining the company's "outperform the market" rating and continuing to recommend.