Is Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) A Risky Investment?
Is Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Autoliv, Inc. (NYSE:ALV) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
沃伦·巴菲特曾 famously 说过,'波动性远非与风险同义。' 在考察一家公司有多风险时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为债务通常与业务崩溃相关。与许多其他公司一样,奥托立夫公司(纽交所代码:ALV)也使用债务。但这个债务对股东来说是个问题吗?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
一般来说,当公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才变成真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资金还是通过自身现金流。 当事情变得非常糟糕时,贷款人可以控制业务。 虽然这并不常见,但我们经常看到有负债的公司因贷款人强迫其以降价的价格筹集资金而永久稀释股东的情况。 话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理管理其债务以促进自身的发展。 在考虑公司的债务水平时的第一步是将其现金和债务一起考虑。
How Much Debt Does Autoliv Carry?
奥托立夫的债务有多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Autoliv had debt of US$2.21b, up from US$1.87b in one year. However, it also had US$415.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.80b.
下图可点击查看更详细的信息,显示到2024年9月,奥托立夫的债务为22.1亿美元,比一年前的18.7亿美元有所上升。然而,它的现金为41500万美元,因此其净债务为18亿美元。
How Strong Is Autoliv's Balance Sheet?
奥托立夫的资产负债表有多强?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Autoliv had liabilities of US$4.03b due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.97b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$415.0m and US$2.19b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$3.40b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,奥托立夫的短期负债为40.3亿美元,长期负债为19.7亿美元。另一方面,它有41500万美元的现金和21.9亿美元的应收账款到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和多出34亿美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because Autoliv is worth US$7.66b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
这个赤字并不算太坏,因为奥托立夫的市值为76.6亿美元,因此如果需要,可能能够筹集足够的资本来增强其资产负债表。但很明显,我们应该仔细检查它是否能够在不稀释股东权益的情况下管理其债务。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
为了衡量公司相对于其收益的债务情况,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆盖率)。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量(净负债与 EBITDA),又考虑到了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(其利息覆盖率)。
Autoliv has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 10.4 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Also positive, Autoliv grew its EBIT by 23% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Autoliv can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
奥托立夫的净债务与EBITDA的比率仅为1.3。它的EBIT轻松覆盖了利息支出,达到10.4倍。因此,我们对其极为保守的债务使用感到相当放心。还有积极的一点是,奥托立夫在过去一年中EBIT增长了23%,这应该使其在未来偿还债务变得更容易。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解债务的情况。然而,最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定奥托立夫能否随着时间的推移增强其资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,显示分析师的利润预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Autoliv recorded free cash flow of 40% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
但我们最后的考虑也是重要的,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要真实的现金流。因此,逻辑步骤是查看EBIT中与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。查看最近三年的数据,奥托立夫记录的自由现金流占其EBIT的40%,这低于我们的预期。从偿还债务的角度来看,这并不太好。
Our View
我们的观点
The good news is that Autoliv's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. All these things considered, it appears that Autoliv can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Autoliv .
好消息是,奥托立夫展示了其用EBIT覆盖利息支出的能力,就像毛绒绒的小狗让小孩开心一样。 但,从一个更严肃的角度来看,我们对其总负债水平感到有些担忧。 综上所述,奥托立夫似乎能够舒适地应对当前的债务水平。 从积极的一面来看,这种杠杆可以提升股东回报,但潜在的 downside 是损失风险增加,因此值得关注资产负债表。 在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个好的起点。 但归根结底,每家公司都可能存在在资产负债表之外的风险。 为此,您应该注意我们发现的奥托立夫的2个警示信号。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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