While Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Shareholders Have Made 109% in 5 Years, Increasing Losses Might Now Be Front of Mind as Stock Sheds 7.0% This Week
While Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Shareholders Have Made 109% in 5 Years, Increasing Losses Might Now Be Front of Mind as Stock Sheds 7.0% This Week
The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. Long term Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 103% in five years. On top of that, the share price is up 51% in about a quarter.
在任何股票上,你最多可能損失的是你所有的投資(假設你不使用槓桿)。但從積極的角度來看,如果你在合適的價格買入高質量公司的股票,你可能會獲得超過100%的收益。長揸美國鋁業公司(紐交所:AA)的股東對此應當非常清楚,因爲該股票在五年內上漲了103%。而且,股價在大約一個季度內上漲了51%。
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
雖然過去的一週削弱了公司的五年回報,但讓我們看看業務的最近趨勢,並查看收益是否已對齊。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
雖然有效市場假說仍然被一些人教授,但被證明市場是過度反應的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。檢查市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是看一個公司的股價與其每股收益(EPS)之間的交互作用。
We know that Alcoa has been profitable in the past. However, it made a loss in the last twelve months, suggesting profit may be an unreliable metric at this stage. So it might be better to look at other metrics to try to understand the share price.
我們知道美國鋁業公司過去是盈利的。然而,在過去的十二個月中它出現了虧損,這表明利潤在此階段可能不是一個可靠的指標。因此,查看其他指標可能更好,以努力理解股價。
We doubt the modest 0.9% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. We are not particularly impressed by the annual compound revenue growth of 2.1% over five years. So why is the share price up? It's not immediately obvious to us, but a closer look at the company's progress over time might yield answers.
我們懷疑溫和的0.9%分紅派息收益率吸引了多少買家。我們對五年來年複合營業收入增長2.1%並不特別印象深刻。那麼,股價爲什麼會上漲呢?這對我們來說並不明顯,但仔細觀察公司的進展可能會提供答案。
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
您可以在下方圖片中看到盈利和營業收入隨時間的變化(單擊圖表查看準確數值)。
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
我們很高興地報告,CEO的報酬比同樣資本化的公司的大多數CEO都要適中。但是,雖然CEO報酬值得檢查,但真正重要的問題是公司是否能夠繼續增加收益。因此,我們建議查看此免費報告,顯示共識預測。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Alcoa's TSR for the last 5 years was 109%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
除了衡量股票價格回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。TSR是一個回報計算,考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設任何收到的分紅被重新投資)和任何折扣資本融資及派生物的計算價值。可以說,TSR提供了更全面的股票回報圖景。正好,美國鋁業公司在過去5年的TSR爲109%,超過了之前提到的股票價格回報。這在很大程度上是其分紅派息的結果!
A Different Perspective
另一種看法
It's good to see that Alcoa has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 72% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 16% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Alcoa that you should be aware of.
很高興看到美國鋁業公司在過去十二個月中向股東提供了72%的總股東回報,這其中包括分紅派息。由於一年期的總股東回報率好於五年期的總股東回報率(後者爲每年16%),這似乎表明該股票的表現最近有所改善。考慮到股價動能依然強勁,可能值得更深入地關注這隻股票,以免錯過機會。 雖然不同市場條件對股價的影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。例如,我們已識別出2個美國鋁業公司的警告信號,您應該注意。
But note: Alcoa may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
但請注意:美國鋁業公司可能不是最值得買入的股票。所以請查看這份包含過去盈利增長(以及未來增長預測)有趣公司的免費名單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。