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比尔·格罗斯:对华尔街狂热情绪保持警惕,更倾向于投资防御性资产

Bill Gross: Stay cautious of Wall Street's exuberant sentiment, and tend to invest more in defensive assets.

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 7 18:07

Gross mentioned that while he is aligning with market trends, he also remains vigilant about factors that could bring an end to this party.

$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Prices surged to 0.1 million dollars, the inexplicable rise of 'MEME stocks', and short sellers faced collapses. For investors who have not deeply understood Wall Street history, the market frenzy in 2024 seems fresh and risky. However, for legendary investor Bill Gross, who turned 80 this year, this excitement is merely a common part of the USA market that has existed since before he was born.

Gross stated that while he is aligning with market trends, he is also cautious about factors that may end this celebration. Currently, he prefers to invest in high-dividend companies and defensive assets like banks.

The employment data released on Friday showed that the labor market remains strong, further boosting risk appetite.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$This week set a new historic high again.$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$This year, the increase has exceeded 28%. The corporate bonds market is also performing well, with lending premiums dropping to the lowest level in over 20 years.

Meanwhile, short sellers have suffered severe losses. According to data, among 126 ETFs that attempted to profit from market declines, only 14 recorded gains this year, with an average loss of 27%. In contrast, leveraged long ETFs attracted substantial funds, showing a clear increase in market risk appetite.

Bitcoin surpassed $0.1 million for the first time this week, driving a comprehensive rise in the entire digital assets industry and igniting market speculation. However, Richard Bernstein, founder of investment firm Richard Bernstein Advisors, believes that Bitcoin has become a 'steroid-injected bubble.' He pointed out, 'This has nothing to do with fundamentals; it's entirely a result of liquidity.'

Despite the controversy over the bubble, the current cryptocurrency boom is aligning with the overall upward trend of risk assets. Non-profitable technology company stocks rose by 20% in this quarter, and junk bond funds are expected to set a historical record for inflows.

The rise of risk assets is driving rapid wealth accumulation. Data shows that the number of millionaire 401(k) accounts at Fidelity Investments reached a record 0.544 million in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the net worth of American households rose to a historic high of $163.8 trillion in the second quarter.

Consumer confidence in the stock market has also reached unprecedented levels. Data shows that American consumer confidence in the stock market is at an all-time high.

Investor confidence is growing, which is also reflected in the decline of hedging costs. Over the past two months, hedge costs for a 10% decline in the s&p 500 index have continued to drop, while hedging against larger declines has become even less popular. This week, an ETF aimed at addressing 'black swan' events announced its liquidation, exiting the market due to years of losses.

Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investments at goldman sachs asset management, believes there are ample reasons to be optimistic about the market, but it is also necessary to insure against potential risks within the portfolio. She stated, 'Tail hedging still plays an important role in investment management. We remain constructive on the risk environment in the short term while closely monitoring changes in usa policy and the potential risks of rising inflation.'

Editor/Rocky

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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