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Is There An Opportunity With TAL Education Group's (NYSE:TAL) 34% Undervaluation?

Is There An Opportunity With TAL Education Group's (NYSE:TAL) 34% Undervaluation?

好未來集團(紐交所:TAL)股價低估34%,是否存在投資機會?
Simply Wall St ·  12/06 06:31

Key Insights

主要見解

  • TAL Education Group's estimated fair value is US$15.35 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • TAL Education Group is estimated to be 34% undervalued based on current share price of US$10.20
  • Analyst price target for TAL is US$14.04 which is 8.6% below our fair value estimate
  • 好未來集團的估計公允價值爲15.35美元,基於2階段自由現金流折現到權益
  • 好未來集團的預計市值低於34%,基於當前股票價格爲10.20美元
  • 分析師對好未來的價格目標爲14.04美元,較我們的公允價值估計低8.6%

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

今天我們將簡單介紹一種估計好未來集團(紐交所:TAL)作爲投資機會吸引力的估值方法,方法是將預期未來現金流折現到現值。實現這一點的一種方法是使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。這些模型可能看起來超出普通人的理解,但實際上相對容易跟隨。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

需要記住,估算公司價值有很多方法,而DCF只是其中的一種。如果您想了解更多有關折現現金流的知識,可以詳細閱讀Simply Wall St分析模型的理論基礎。

The Method

方法

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們將使用兩階段的DCF模型,正如其名稱所示,考慮到增長的兩個階段。第一階段通常是一個更高的增長期,隨着第二個「穩步增長」期趨於終止價值而逐漸平穩。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年內該業務的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計值,但當這些不可用時,我們會從最後一個估計值或報告值的上一個自由現金流(FCF)進行外推。我們假設收縮自由現金流的公司將減緩其收縮速度,並且自由現金流增長的公司在此期間將看到其增長率減緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長在早期比後期更加緩慢的趨勢。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

DCF的核心理念是未來的一美元價值不如現在的一美元,因此我們將這些未來現金流折現至今天的價值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由現金流(FCF)預測

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$461.8m US$528.3m US$501.7m US$488.9m US$484.1m US$484.5m US$488.6m US$495.4m US$504.1m US$514.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x3 Est @ -2.54% Est @ -0.99% Est @ 0.09% Est @ 0.85% Est @ 1.38% Est @ 1.75% Est @ 2.01%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1% US$431 US$460 US$408 US$371 US$343 US$320 US$301 US$285 US$271 US$258
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
槓桿自由現金流 ($, 百萬) 4.618億美元 5.283億美元 5.017億美金 4.889億美金 4.841億美金 美元484.5百萬 488.6百萬美元 495.4百萬美元 504.1百萬美元 514.2百萬美元
增長率估計來源 分析師 x4 分析師 x4 分析師 x3 估計 @ -2.54% 預計 @ -0.99%。 估值增長率爲0.09% 預估上漲0.85% 以1.38%爲基礎估算 @1.75%的估算 估計爲2.01%
按7.1%貼現的現值(百萬美元) 431美元 4.6億美元 美元408 美元371 美金343 320美元 301美元 美元285 271 美元258

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.4b

("Est" = Simply Wall St 估計的自由現金流增長率)
未來10年現金流的現值(PVCF)= US$34億

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

在計算初始10年期間未來現金流的現值後,我們需要計算終值,該終值考慮了第一階段以後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終值,未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值,即2.6%。我們以7.1%的股本成本將終端現金流折現到今天的價值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$514m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.6%) = US$12b

終值 (TV) = FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = 美元514百萬 × (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (7.1% – 2.6%) = 美元120億

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$12b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)10= US$5.8b

終值的現值 (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = 美元120億 ÷ (1 + 7.1%)10 = 美元58億

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$9.3b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$10.2, the company appears quite good value at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上折現後的終值,這樣得到的總股權價值爲美元93億。要獲得每股內在價值,我們將其除以總的已發行股票數量。與當前股價美元10.2相比,該公司在當前股票價格交易的基礎上有34%的折扣,似乎相當划算。不過請記住,這只是一個近似估值,與任何複雜的公式一樣 - 垃圾進,垃圾出。

big
NYSE:TAL Discounted Cash Flow December 6th 2024
紐交所:好未來 折現現金流 2024年12月6日

The Assumptions

假設

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at TAL Education Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.909. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

上述計算依賴於兩個假設。第一是折現率,另一個是現金流。如果您不同意這些結果,可以自己進行計算並玩弄這些假設。DCF同樣沒有考慮到行業的週期性,或公司的未來資本需求,因此並不能爲公司的潛在表現提供全面的視圖。考慮到我們正在將好未來教育集團視爲潛在股東,使用權益成本作爲折現率,而不是資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC),因爲後者考慮了債務。在此計算中,我們使用了7.1%,這是基於0.909的槓桿貝塔。貝塔是衡量某隻股票與整個市場波動性的一種指標。我們的貝塔來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔,設定的範圍在0.8到2.0之間,這是穩定業務的合理區間。

Moving On:

接下來:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For TAL Education Group, we've compiled three relevant factors you should explore:

儘管重要,DCF計算理想情況下不應是您審查公司的唯一分析工具。DCF模型並不是投資估值的唯一標準。相反,它應該被視爲一個指南,幫助您理解「哪些假設需要成立,這隻股票才會被低估/高估?」例如,公司股本成本或無風險利率的變化可能會顯著影響估值。爲什麼內在價值高於當前股價?對於好未來,我們整理了三個相關因素,您應該探索:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with TAL Education Group , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
  2. Future Earnings: How does TAL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 風險:考慮到投資風險的持續存在。例如,我們發現了好未來的一個警告信號,了解它應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。
  2. 未來收益:好未來的增長率與其同行和更廣泛市場相比如何?通過與我們的自由分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入挖掘未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
  3. 其他優秀企業:低負債,高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是構建強大企業基礎的基礎。爲什麼不探索我們交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有堅實業務基礎的其他公司?

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

PS. Simply Wall St每天都會更新其對每隻美國股票的折現現金流計算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的內在價值,只需在此搜索即可。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team @ simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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