Santa Rally: 10 S&P 500 Stocks That Outperform In December's Second Half
Santa Rally: 10 S&P 500 Stocks That Outperform In December's Second Half
Let's dig into the numbers.The Santa Rally refers to a seasonal stock market trend where equities historically see stronger gains during the final stretch of December.
聖誕反彈是指一種季節性的股票市場趨勢，歷史上在12月最後一段時間，股票通常會見證更強的漲幅。
This phenomenon, often fueled by holiday cheer, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and investor optimism, has been a recurring pattern for decades.
這種現象往往是受到假日氣氛、年末資產組合再平衡和投資者樂觀情緒的推動，已經成爲幾十年來的反覆模式。
But what makes December stand out, and which stocks have historically outperformed during this period?
但是什麼使得12月尤爲突出，哪些股票在這一時期歷史上表現優於其他股票？
Let's dig into the numbers.
讓我們深入研究這些數據。
December: A Seasonal Sweet Spot For Stocks
12月：股票的季節性甜蜜點
After a strong rally in November, with the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – rallying 6%, "momentum could continue for stocks as historically it has been a good month for stock market seasonals," said George Smith, portfolio strategist at LPL Financials.
在11月強勁反彈之後，標普500指數（由SPDR標普500 ETF trust（紐交所：SPY）追蹤）上漲了6%，喬治·史密斯（George Smith），LPL Financials的投資組合策略師表示：「由於歷史上這是股票市場季節性的一月份，股票的動能可能繼續。」
Since 1950, December ranks as the second-best month for the S&P 500, delivering an average return of 1.6%. Only November performs better, with a historical average of 1.8%.
自1950年以來，12月被評爲標普500指數的第二佳月份，平均回報率爲1.6%。只有11月表現更好，歷史平均爲1.8%。
Smith also highlighted that the second half of December has typically delivered the lion's share of these gains, generating the so-called "Santa Rally" effect.
史密斯還強調，12月下半月通常佔據了這些漲幅的主要部分，產生了所謂的「聖誕反彈」效應。
Historically, stocks tend to stall or even decline slightly during the first half of the month before momentum builds around mid-December. Data suggests that the upward trajectory starts gaining steam near the 11th trading day of the month and accelerates as Christmas approaches.
從歷史上看，股票往往在本月的前半月停滯不前，甚至略有下降，直到12月中旬動能才開始增強。數據顯示，上升趨勢在本月第11個交易日附近開始加速，並在聖誕節臨近時加快。
Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks With Strong Christmas Seasonality
強勁聖誕季節性表現的前10只標準普爾500股票
For investors looking to capitalize on the Santa Rally, certain stocks have a history of delivering outsized gains in the back half of December.
對於那些希望藉助聖誕老人反彈獲利的投資者來說，某些股票在12月後半段有着提供超額收益的歷史。
Looking back at the last 20 years of data, here are the top 10 S&P 500 stocks that have historically shown the strongest average returns between Dec. 12 and Dec. 31:
回顧過去20年的數據，以下是歷史上在12月12日至12月31日之間表現出最強平均回報的前10只標準普爾500股票：
| Rank | Stock | Average Return | Median Return | Max Profit | Max Loss | Win Ratio | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILM) | +4.94% | +5.17% | +19.39% | -10.98% | 75% | 4.27 |
| 2 | Invesco Ltd. (NYSE:IVZ) | +4.34% | +3.04% | +23.10% | -5.10% | 80% | 3.72 |
| 3 | Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) | +3.78% | +4.37% | +12.89% | -8.52% | 80% | 3.70 |
| 4 | Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) | +3.73% | +3.84% | +24.23% | -13.26% | 70% | 2.75 |
| 5 | Mohawk Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MHK) | +3.47% | +2.19% | +20.26% | -4.35% | 70% | 3.18 |
| 6 | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) | +3.34% | +4.60% | +25.84% | -15.06% | 75% | 2.03 |
| 7 | BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) | +3.32% | +3.62% | +11.64% | -1.69% | 80% | 3.49 |
| 8 | Global Payments Inc. (NYSE:GPN) | +3.30% | +3.35% | +12.38% | -8.28% | 80% | 3.44 |
| 9 | CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE) | +3.20% | +3.24% | +13.27% | -7.11% | 75% | 2.22 |
| 10 | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) | +3.14% | +1.80% | +36.95% | -14.54% | 55% | 2.36 |
| 排名 | 股票 | 平均回報 | 中位回報 | 最大利潤 | 最大損失 | 勝率 | 夏普比率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illumina, Inc. (納斯達克:ILM) | +4.94% | +5.17% | +19.39% | -10.98% | 75% | 4.27 |
| 2 | 景順有限公司（紐交所：IVZ） | +4.34% | +3.04% | +23.10% | -5.10% | 80% | 3.72 |
| 3 | 瓦萊羅能源公司 (紐交所:VLO) | +3.78% | +4.37% | +12.89% | -8.52% | 80% | 3.70 |
| 4 | 西部數據股份有限公司（納斯達克：WDC） | +3.73% | +3.84% | +24.23% | -13.26% | 70% | 2.75 |
| 5 | 莫霍克工業公司（紐交所：MHK） | +3.47% | +2.19% | +20.26% | -4.35% | 70% | 3.18 |
| 6 | 麥克莫蘭銅金公司（NYSE：FCX） | +3.34% | +4.60% | +25.84% | -15.06% | 75% | 2.03 |
| 7 | 貝萊德公司（NYSE:BLK） | +3.32% | +3.62% | +11.64% | -1.69% | 80% | 3.49 |
| 8 | Global Payments Inc. (NYSE:GPN) | +3.30% | +3.35% | +12.38% | -8.28% | 80% | 3.44 |
| 9 | CBRE集團股份有限公司（紐交所:CBRE） | +3.20% | +3.24% | +13.27% | -7.11% | 75% | 2.22 |
| 10 | 皇家加勒比郵輪有限公司 (紐交所:RCL) | +3.14% | +1.80% | +36.95% | -14.54% | 55% | 2.36 |
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。