Vibrant Group Limited (SGX:BIP) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 20% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Following the firm bounce in price, Vibrant Group may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 73.9x, since almost half of all companies in Singapore have P/E ratios under 11x and even P/E's lower than 7x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Vibrant Group certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Vibrant Group's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 246% gain to the company's bottom line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 81% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 7.5% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Vibrant Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
Vibrant Group's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Vibrant Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Having said that, be aware Vibrant Group is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are concerning.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Vibrant Group. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
