According to Zhitong Finance, on Monday, the three major indices had mixed results as the market focuses on the US November non-farm payroll data, the Trump administration's policies, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December.

[US Stocks] As of the close, the Dow Jones fell 128.65 points, a decrease of 0.29%, closing at 44,782.00 points; the nasdaq rose 185.78 points, an increase of 0.97%, closing at 19,403.95 points; the s&p 500 index rose 14.77 points, an increase of 0.24%, closing at 6,047.15 points. super micro computer (SMCI.US) rose over 28%, Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 3.4%, meta platforms (META.US) rose over 3%. The nasdaq golden dragon index rose 0.98%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) rose over 5%, douyu (DOYU.US) rose 11%, alibaba (BABA.US) fell 1.6%.

[European Stocks] The german dax30 index rose 322.71 points, increasing 1.64%, closing at 19,951.05 points; the uk ftse100 index rose 24.18 points, increasing 0.29%, closing at 8,311.48 points; the france cac40 index rose 1.78 points, increasing 0.02%, closing at 7,236.89 points; the europe stoxx 50 index rose 41.25 points, increasing 0.86%, closing at 4,845.65 points; the spain ibex35 index rose 88.70 points, increasing 0.76%, closing at 11,730.00 points; the italy ftse mib index rose 76.44 points, increasing 0.23%, closing at 33,491.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Market] The nikkei 225 index rose 0.8%, the Indonesia Jakarta composite index fell 0.95%, and the South Korea KOSPI index fell 0.058%.

[Cryptos] Bitcoin fell 1.9%, priced at $95,449.35 per coin; ethereum fell 2.6%, priced at $3,615.05 per coin.

[Gold] COMEX gold futures February contract fell 0.73%, priced at $2,661.60 per ounce; spot gold fell 0.15%, priced at $2,639.08 per ounce.

The WTI futures price for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.10, an increase of about 0.15%, closing at $68.10 per barrel. The Brent crude oil futures for January delivery on the European Intercontinental Exchange fell by 1 cent, a decrease of 0.01%, closing at $71.83 per barrel. Four OPEC+ sources indicated that OPEC+ may extend the latest round of production cuts to the end of the first quarter of 2025 during Thursday's meeting to provide more support to the oil market. OPEC+ has gradually planned to cancel the production cuts by 2025. However, global demand slowdown and increased production outside of OPEC have posed challenges to this plan and pressured oil prices. One source stated, "This reduction measure may extend into the first quarter." OPEC+ and allies like Russia will hold a meeting on Thursday to decide their production strategy. The eight member countries participating in the latest round of OPEC+ cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day had originally planned to increase production by 0.18 million barrels per day starting in January next year. However, due to the decline in oil prices, the production increase plan has been delayed since October this year.

Macro news

The U.S. ISM manufacturing data exceeded expectations, showing signs of easing in weak demand. Timothy Fiore, chairman of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in November, but the pace of contraction slowed compared to last month. Demand remains weak but may be easing, output has fallen again, and inputs remain loose. Positive signs in demand include: the new orders index returning to expansion territory, the new export orders index increasing moderately (up 3.2 percentage points but still in contraction territory), the order backlog index further receding into strong contraction territory, and the customer inventory index indicating levels slightly above "too low." Basic industries such as chemicals and metal products continue to perform weakly, suggesting that recovery may still take two to three months. Inventory is continuously improving, and suppliers are improving delivery performance.

Fed's Williams: Further interest rate cuts are expected. John Williams, president of the New York Fed, stated on Monday that as inflationary pressures continue to ease, the Fed may further lower its interest rate target. Speaking at a meeting of the Queens Chamber of Commerce in New York, Williams said, "Monetary policy remains restrictive to support a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target." Looking ahead, "I anticipate that over time, it will be appropriate to continue moving toward a more neutral policy setting," said Williams, noting that the policy path will depend on the data. If there is one thing we have learned over the past five years, it is that the outlook remains highly uncertain. Williams did not provide clear guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts or whether he believes the Fed will lower the interest rate target at this month's FOMC meeting.

Fed hawk Waller: Prefers interest rate cut in December. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that he prefers to support an interest rate cut at the Fed meeting later this month, though he also expressed that he might be open to advocating for keeping rates unchanged. Waller stated in remarks prepared for a meeting in Washington on Monday, "Policy remains restrictive enough, and a further cut at the next meeting would not significantly change the stance of monetary policy, allowing enough space to slow the pace of cuts when necessary to keep moving toward the inflation target." Waller expressed concerns about inflation data slightly exceeding expectations over the past two months. He likened himself to a mixed martial arts fighter, "always trying to choke inflation but it slips away at the last moment." He stated that the Fed will not allow inflation to accelerate again. "Yield is inevitable; inflation has not yet escaped the octagon," he said. Waller noted that although inflation has been more stubborn in recent months, the economic data and forecasts indicate that inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target.

The U.S. debt burden is continuously increasing, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at WisdomTree Asset Management, stated that U.S. national debt is climbing close to $36 trillion, raising questions about fiscal sustainability. By 2034, interest expenditure is expected to reach $1.71 trillion, equivalent to 4.1% of GDP, further limiting fiscal flexibility. This increasing debt may exacerbate concerns about fiscal health, making current challenges potentially more difficult to handle. While the market remains confident in the U.S. government's trust and credit, risks are rising, and both investors and fiscal policymakers need to proceed with caution. The "watchers" in the bond market may be gathering, and further expanding government spending, especially when the economy does not need more stimulus, could trigger market discontent.

[Individual stock news]

MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) has increased its bitcoin holdings for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a total holding of $38 billion. MicroStrategy purchased an additional $1.5 billion in bitcoin, marking the fourth consecutive week that this crypto hedge fund agency has bought bitcoin. According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), MicroStrategy acquired 15,400 bitcoins between November 25 and December 1. Since November 11, the company has purchased over $13.5 billion in bitcoin and currently holds approximately $38 billion in bitcoin. MicroStrategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor has transformed this enterprise software manufacturer into what he calls a "bitcoin treasury," drawing the attention of Wall Street. The company's stock price has surged over 500% this year, outperforming nearly all other major stocks. MicroStrategy has been financing its bitcoin trades by selling convertible notes and issuing stock in the market.

Intel (INTC.US) leadership undergoes significant changes as CEO Patrick retires. Intel announced today that CEO Patrick P. Gelsinger is retiring from the company after more than 40 years of an outstanding career and is stepping down from the board of directors, effective December 1, 2024. Intel has appointed two executives, David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus, as interim co-CEOs while the board searches for a new CEO. Frank Yary, the independent chairman of the Intel board, will serve as interim executive chairman during the transition. The leadership structure of Intel Foundry remains unchanged. The board has formed a committee that will work diligently and swiftly to find Patrick P. Gelsinger's permanent successor.

Bank review:

Stifel raises the target price for Tesla (TSLA.US) from $287 to $411.