On the evening of the 2nd Beijing time, the US stock market opened slightly higher on Monday. As the US stock market enters the last month of the year, the market this week is focused on the US November non-farm payrolls, Trump administration policies, and the Fed's interest rate path.
As of the time of writing, the three major indexes are mixed, with the Dow down 0.3%, the Nasdaq up 0.76%, and the s&p 500 index up 0.13%.
In November, following Trump's victory in the usa presidential election, the us stock market surged. The Dow and s&p 500 index rose 7.5% and 5.7% respectively, recording the largest monthly increase since 2024. The Dow briefly broke through the 45,000-point mark during trading on Wednesday (November 27). The Nasdaq accumulated a 6.2% increase in November.
Small cap stocks were also winners after Trump won the election, as investors believed small cap stocks would benefit from Trump's potential tax cut policies. In November, the e-mini russell 2000 index rose more than 10%, marking the largest monthly gain of the year.
The recent strong performance of the us stock market and historical trends have boosted market sentiment. Analysts say there may be even greater upside potential for the us stock market this year.
According to CFRA's Sam Stovall, December is the most stable month for the s&p 500 index, with the highest frequency of increases; its volatility is also the lowest, nearly 40% lower than the average levels of other months since World War II. This year is different because the election has increased bullish sentiment.
On Monday, us treasury yields rose slightly as investors awaited the upcoming us economic data to assess the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy. Additionally, usa president-elect Trump warned BRICS countries not to create a currency that competes with the dollar, further supporting the dollar's upward trend.
Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, stated, "Trump's policy positions may create upward pressure on the dollar. From the stock market's perspective, we actually believe that the fundamentals of the stock market itself remain quite strong."
This Friday, the market will迎来 the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report for November in the USA.
The Federal Reserve's policy has become the focus, with Chairman Powell scheduled to speak on Wednesday at Eastern Time. The non-farm data set to be released on Friday will provide an assessment of the employment market in the USA and could determine whether to cut rates further on December 18th. Currently, the market anticipates a 66% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.
The market will closely monitor whether Powell will release any policy signals to digest the potential impact of the non-farm data in advance.
Several officials from the Federal Reserve will also speak this week, including Fed Governor Quarles and New York Fed President Williams, who will speak on Monday.
Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise Financial, points out that if the non-farm payroll data exceeds market expectations, it could shake investors' confidence in the market trend for December, leading to some selling pressure.
Focus stocks
Growth tech stocks and semiconductor stocks generally rose, with Taiwan Semiconductor and Marvell Technology both up over 4%, Intel up more than 3%, and AMD up over 2%.
China concept stocks showed mixed results, with Miniso rising nearly 13% and Xiaopeng Motors increasing over 8%.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Increased by nearly 3%, as previous reports indicated the company began launching the latest version of FSD, V13.2.
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Surged over 12%, as the company stated that the independent special committee has completed its evaluation work and found no evidence of misconduct, and its chief financial officer will be replaced.
$Intel (INTC.US)$ Increased over 2%, as the company announced that CEO Pat Gelsinger is retiring and the board of directors is searching for a new successor.
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