We Think Belden (NYSE:BDC) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Belden (NYSE:BDC) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Belden Inc. (NYSE:BDC) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希爾-哈撒韋的查理·芒格背書的外部基金經理李錄在說到'最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是是否會遭受永久性的資本損失'時毫不掩飾。當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過載可能導致崩潰。與許多其他公司一樣,百通公司(紐交所:BDC)使用債務。但這種債務是否會讓股東擔憂呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時有危險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務對於企業來說是有幫助的,直到企業因新資本或自由現金流還清債務爲止。資本主義的一個方面是「創造性破壞」過程,銀行家們無情地清算失敗的企業。雖然這不太常見,但我們經常看到負債公司因放貸人強制它們以苦澀的價格籌集資本而永久稀釋股東。雖然債務可以取代股權稀釋,但對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可以是一種非常有用的工具。當我們考慮公司使用債務的情況時,首先看現金和債務的總體情況。
What Is Belden's Net Debt?
百通公司的淨債務是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Belden had US$1.22b of debt, an increase on US$1.15b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$323.0m, its net debt is less, at about US$896.0m.
您可以點擊以下圖表查看歷史數據,但截至2024年9月,百通公司債務達到12.2億美元,與一年前的11.5億美元相比有所增加。然而,由於其現金儲備達到32300萬美元,其淨債務較少,約爲89600萬美元。
How Healthy Is Belden's Balance Sheet?
百通公司的資產負債表狀況如何?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Belden had liabilities of US$579.3m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.53b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$323.0m and US$430.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.35b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
從最近的資產負債表中我們可以看到,百通公司有短期到期的負債爲57930萬元美元,而長期到期的負債爲15.3億美元。另一方面,公司有32300萬元美元的現金和43020萬元美元的應收賬款在短期內到期。因此,公司的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款合計高出13.5億美元。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Belden has a market capitalization of US$4.94b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
儘管這聽起來很多,但由於百通公司的市值爲49.4億美元,所以如果需要的話,通過增加資本可能加強其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們肯定需要仔細審查其是否能在沒有稀釋的情況下管理其債務。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
爲了衡量公司相對於其收益的債務情況,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆蓋率)。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量(淨負債與 EBITDA),又考慮到了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(其利息覆蓋率)。
With a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5, Belden uses debt artfully but responsibly. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 7.4 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. Shareholders should be aware that Belden's EBIT was down 24% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Belden's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
百通公司的債務與EBITDA比率爲2.5,說明公司在使用債務方面很有技巧並且負責任。此外,過去十二個月的EBIT是其利息支出的7.4倍,這與上述主題相一致。股東應注意,百通公司的EBIT去年下降了24%。如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,那麼償還債務將會像把貓趕上過山車一樣困難。資產負債表顯然是在分析債務時要重點關注的領域。但更重要的是,未來的盈利將決定百通公司是否能夠持續維持健康的資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份展示分析師盈利預測的免費報告。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Belden recorded free cash flow worth 65% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
最後,一家企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤是遠遠不夠的。因此,邏輯的下一步是查看EBIT中實際自由現金流所佔比例。在過去的三年中,百通公司的自由現金流佔其EBIT的65%,這在正常範圍之內,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅款。這份自由現金流使得公司有能力在適當時期償還債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Belden's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is relatively strong. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Belden is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Belden that you should be aware of.
百通公司增長EBIt的努力讓我們開始懷疑其資產負債表的實力,但我們考慮的其他數據點相對振興。例如,其將EBIt轉換爲自由現金流的能力相對較強。綜合考慮上述所有角度,我們認爲百通公司由於其債務而變成了一項相對風險的投資。 這並不一定是壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的事情。毫無疑問,我們最能從資產負債表中了解債務情況。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表範圍的風險。例如,我們已經發現了百通公司的2個警示信號,您應該注意。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。