2）海外Miniso 营收同增39.8%，其中直营市场同增55.4%，美国及印尼市场重点发力；代理市场同增26.5%，得益于IP 策略拉动、海运扰动缓解，以及欧洲市场在公司指导调整下经营优化。3）Top Toy 营收同增50.4%，自研产品占比及盈利能力持续提升，海外首店在泰国落地。展店方面，国内Miniso、海外Miniso、TOP TOY 分别净新增门店135/183/39 家（vs Q2 分别81/157/35 家），海外市场拓店加速为承接旺季客流奠定良好基础。The company released its 24Q3 quarterly report. Revenue for the third quarter increased by 19.3% to 4.52 billion yuan. Miniso/Overseas Miniso/Top Toy increased 5.7%/39.8%/50.4% respectively. Overseas, thanks to IP strategies, accelerated store expansion, and mitigation of shipping disturbances, etc., continued to grow rapidly. Adjusted net profit also increased by 6.9% to 0.69 billion yuan, driven by pressure from domestic stores and investment from overseas direct stores. We believe that all of these adverse factors are expected to be mitigated in Q4, compounded by popular IPs such as Harry Potter and the overseas peak season. We are optimistic about the growth rate of Q4's performance and marginal profit margins, as well as the prospects for medium- to long-term companies to expand globally, empowered by IP strategies.
Overseas markets and Top Toy showed impressive growth, and store expansion accelerated month-on-month
Looking at Q3 by business: 1) Domestic Miniso's revenue also increased by 5.7%, hampered by the macro environment and high base. Among them, passenger flow fell by nearly 6%, customer unit prices increased slightly year-on-year, and customer unit price performance in higher-tier cities was better under the IP strategy.
2) Overseas Miniso's revenue also increased by 39.8%. Among them, the direct sales market also increased by 55.4%, with the US and Indonesian markets focusing on strength; the agency market also increased 26.5%, thanks to IP strategy driving, mitigation of shipping disturbances, and the optimization of operations in the European market under the company's guidance and adjustments. 3) Top Toy's revenue also increased by 50.4%. The share of self-developed products and profitability continued to increase, and the first overseas store was launched in Thailand. In terms of exhibition stores, domestic Miniso, overseas Miniso, and TOP TOY added a net of 135/183/39 stores (vs Q2 81/157/35, respectively), and the acceleration of overseas market expansion has laid a good foundation to handle peak season traffic.
Gross margin reached a new high. The cost ratio was affected by short-term strategic investment, etc., and gross margin increased by 3.1 pct to 44.9% in Q3, mainly due to an increase in overseas market revenue share and an increase in IP product sales. Sales and management rates increased by 5.1/0.7 pct to 22.0%/5.2%, respectively. The rate increase was mainly due to strategic investment in overseas direct sales markets to speed up store opening, and the increase in licensing rates. Under the combined impact, the adjusted net interest rate also fell by 1.8 pct to 15.2%.
The medium- to long-term continuous growth driven by IP strategy, channel upgrades and refined operations remained optimistic about the fourth quarter results, maintaining the same 20-30% increase in annual revenue and an adjusted net profit of 2.8 billion yuan. Looking ahead to 25 years, the category dimension will continue to boost consumer interest and IP strategies, focusing on developing categories such as vinyl plush, pets, and two-dimensional IP peripherals, which is expected to continue to drive an increase in gross margin. In the domestic market, accelerate the immediate retail layout, give full play to the driving role of O2O in the same store, and promote channel upgrading under the big store strategy. In overseas business, direct market operations are becoming more mature, and it is expected that localization, same-store promotion, and cost control will be strengthened in 25 years, leading to increased profitability. Furthermore, Yonghui's equity merger and acquisition transaction circular has been confirmed by the Stock Exchange without objection, and the company is actively planning joint procurement and private brand building.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintained an adjusted net profit of $2.88/3.68/4.6 billion for 2024-26. Referring to the 25-year consistent expected average of 23 x PE for comparable companies, considering the pace of recovery in terminal consumption and uncertainty in M&A management strategies, we were given an adjusted PE of 16x in 25 years to maintain the purchase rating and target price of HK$51.21.
Risk warning: retail competition intensifies, tariff-related policies are disrupted, and progress in overseas store expansion falls short of expectations.
