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【券商聚焦】海通国际维持速腾聚创(02498)优于大市评级 指其产品下探低价车型有望提升激光雷达渗透率

[Brokerage Focus] Haitong Int'l maintains an outperform rating on Suton Juchuang (02498), stating that its products targeting low stock price models are expected to enhance lidar penetration.

King Wu Financial News ·  Dec 2, 2024 01:24  · Ratings

Jingwu Finance | Haitong Int'l research indicates that Suoteng JuChuang (02498) achieved a revenue of 1.135 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 91.5% year-on-year; gross profit of 0.17 billion yuan, up 375.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.0%, increasing by 8.93 percentage points year-on-year; net loss attributable to shareholders of 0.351 billion yuan, reducing loss by 69% year-on-year, with a net margin of -31%, improving by 169.49 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 0.408 billion yuan, increasing by 54.7% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter; gross profit was 0.071 billion yuan, rising by 210.2% year-on-year and 31.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.5%, up 8.75 and 2.69 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively; net loss attributable to shareholders was 0.082 billion yuan, increasing losses by 77.4% year-on-year and decreasing by 40.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net margin of -20.2%, improving by 117.7 and 17.37 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.

The report indicates that the company shipped 0.1386 million lidar units in the third quarter, an increase of 134.9% year-on-year and 12.7% quarter-on-quarter, with the shipments of vehicle ADAS lidar at 0.1314 million units, which increased by 147.0% year-on-year and 11.1% quarter-on-quarter. This shows that the expected growth rate of shipments in the second half of the year falls short compared to earlier full-year predictions. The main reasons are as follows: 1) Key customers like Xiaopeng are adopting an end-to-end pure vision solution for new vehicle models; 2) New customers like BYD are still in the ramp-up phase for their designated vehicle models. However, on the other hand, as new customers steadily begin mass production, it represents an increase in penetration rates, which somewhat offsets the impact of the pure vision solution. With the ongoing deepening of scaling and chip integration, the GPM of ADAS lidar has significantly improved to 10.6%, 11.8%, and 14.1% in Q1-Q3 respectively. Additionally, although end-to-end technology remarkably enhances the road performance of pure vision solutions, there is a belief that the safety value of lidar remains unchanged in the long run. Once costs drop to a certain level, it still holds potential for becoming standard equipment.

The report continues to mention that the company's next-generation product MX is priced around 1,000 yuan, aiming to target the low stock price market at around 0.15 million yuan, which is expected to accelerate the overall penetration rate of lidar. According to management disclosures, the MX customer acquisition progress is smooth, having secured cooperation with 7 vehicle manufacturers, and is expected to gradually ramp up production starting from Q1 2025. Regarding overseas business, the company has successfully established designated collaborations with 7 well-known overseas automotive brands, including 3 joint ventures and 4 foreign manufacturers, which is anticipated to provide new revenue growth momentum by 2026.

The report states that the company is expected to generate revenues of 1.727, 3.28, and 4.6 billion yuan for 2024-26E, with EPS at -1.00, -0.52, and 0.00 yuan respectively (previous forecasts were 2.145, 3.7, and 5.8 billion yuan, with EPS at -1.05, -0.52, and 0.18 yuan respectively). Referring to comparable company valuations, a price-to-sales ratio of 3 times for 2025 is maintained, corresponding to a target price of HK$23.46 (previous target price: HK$26.78, adjusted down by 12% corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 3 times for 2025; HK$1=Rmb0.9301). The rating remains "outperform the market."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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