The UGI Corporation (NYSE:UGI) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 35% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, when close to half the companies operating in the United States' Gas Utilities industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 1.7x, you may still consider UGI as an enticing stock to check out with its 0.9x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.
What Does UGI's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
UGI hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this poor revenue performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on UGI.
Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like UGI's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 19% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 3.2% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 8.1% per year during the coming three years according to the three analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 21% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this in consideration, its clear as to why UGI's P/S is falling short industry peers. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
The Final Word
Despite UGI's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that UGI maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider industry, as expected. Shareholders' pessimism on the revenue prospects for the company seems to be the main contributor to the depressed P/S. The company will need a change of fortune to justify the P/S rising higher in the future.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for UGI (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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