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查理·芒格:伯克希尔能成功,是因为我们善于远离难题

Charlie Munger: Berkshire can succeed because we are good at staying away from difficult problems.

red & green ·  Nov 29 23:45

Source: Red and Green As centralized investors, our goal is to have a greater understanding of our companies than any Wall Street investor. If we are willing to work hard and learn as much as possible about our companies, we are likely to know more than general investors, which is all we need to gain a competitive advantage. On the product structure side, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan is 401/1288/60 million yuan, respectively, in 2023, the overall sales volume of the company reached 18,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, showing significant growth.

Playing the investment game well hinges on a few key opportunities. You can truly see that one opportunity is much better than the other ordinary opportunities, and you are very clear that you know more than others. As I said, just seizing a few key opportunities is enough.

In a lifetime, just seizing a few opportunities is enough.

Charlie Munger said that at Berkshire Hathaway, we have always performed better than average. The question arises, how did we achieve that? How did we accomplish it? The answer is simple. We pursue doing less.

We have never naively thought that by bringing in a group of young talents, we would know everything, whether it's about canned soup, aviation, or public utilities.

We have never harbored such delusions. We have never thought that we could acquire genuinely useful information in any field. We do not consider ourselves to be omniscient.

We have always been very clear that as long as we work particularly hard, we can accurately identify a few opportunities. These few opportunities are sufficient. Just seeking to find a few opportunities makes our expectations more reasonable.

My great-grandfather, who is my mother's grandfather, was a great help to me. My great-grandfather was a pioneer. When he came to Iowa, he was broke, but young and healthy.

He participated in the Black Hawk War against the Indians, serving as a captain during the conflict. Later, he settled in Iowa and seized every opportunity to buy land when it became very cheap.

In the end, he became the richest man in the town and even owned banks. He was respected, had a large family, and lived a very happy life.

When he first settled in Iowa, land was less than one dollar an acre, and he lived in Iowa long enough to witness the rise of affluent modern civilization on this fertile land. My great-grandfather said he was fortunate enough to live through good times, reaching the age of 90, with several great opportunities provided by heaven.

His life was long and happy mainly because he seized the opportunities that came his way. Every summer, when the grandchildren gathered around him, my great-grandfather would tell this story over and over. My mother is not interested in money, but she remembered his stories and shared them with me. Unlike my mother, I understand that my great-grandfather was right.

So while I was still very young, I learned that significant opportunities, the ones meant for me, are few and far between, making it crucial to prepare myself to seize them when they arise.

Playing the investment game well hinges on a few key opportunities. You can truly see that one opportunity is much better than the other ordinary opportunities, and you are very clear that you know more than others. As I said, just seizing a few key opportunities is enough.

2. Slow down, we don't care.

Some truths are simple yet truly useful. Daily Journal operates a challenging business, providing services for courts and other government departments, which is not easy. Courts and government departments need automation. Others seek to take advantage of these institutions, but we do not. We are just a small company, working hard, and we have gradually captured a significant market share.

Although the speed is slow, the future is bright. The benefit of having money is that when things are slow, it doesn't matter to us. So how did we become wealthy? We remembered my great-grandfather's words, that there are only a few opportunities, and when an opportunity arises, we seize it. Think about it, is your life like this?

Let me share another personal experience. In the 1970s, I made a mistake by not making an investment that I should have. If I hadn't made that mistake, the wealth of the Munger family would be double what it is now. The mistake I made was very foolish.

I missed that opportunity; otherwise, my assets would be double what they are now. That's life; missing one or two opportunities is unavoidable.

3. How to climb out of mistakes at low cost?

Another issue that needs to be resolved in life is: how can one climb out of mistakes without paying too high a price? We have managed to climb out of errors.

What was Berkshire Hathaway's initial business? It started with struggling department stores, a failing New England textile company, and a bankrupt postage stamp company.

Berkshire Hathaway climbed out of these failing businesses. Fortunately, we bought very cheaply, and despite having poor cards, we played well. The reason Berkshire succeeded in the end is that we took a different path and shifted our focus to buying good businesses. We succeed not because we are good at solving problems, but because we are good at avoiding problems. We just look for simple things to do.

Question: You mentioned that good opportunities can lead to significant hardships if pursued too late. How can one not completely miss the opportunity without overdoing it? How can one avoid entering the market too late? How can one determine when a good opportunity has passed?

Munger: If you think through the problem completely, half of the issue is already resolved. You have already said that this is a contradiction: a good opportunity, full of potential when first entering the market; a good opportunity, when overshot, full of crisis. Keep this string taut in your mind, what opportunities there are, and what types, you need to categorize them yourself. You've already solved half of this problem, you don't need my help. You already know what to do. One must see both the potential and the crisis.

Question: When analyzing a company, do you value quantitative indicators like return on investment more, or qualitative factors like brand advantages and management quality?

Munger: We pay attention to qualitative factors, and we also consider other factors. In general, what factors are important in specific situations, we focus on those. What factors are important require specific problems and specific analysis. We always adhere to common sense—common sense that ordinary people do not possess. I just mentioned tossing many things into the 'too difficult' pile, and that is one of the common sense insights that ordinary people lack.

Everyone knows that so-called common sense is common sense that ordinary people lack. When we say someone has common sense, we are actually saying they possess knowledge that ordinary people do not have. People often think having common sense is easy, but in reality, it's quite difficult.

Question: Many questions today are asking what the secret to your longevity and happiness is.

Munger: This is easy to answer because the reasoning is simple: do not be jealous, do not complain, do not over-consume; maintain a positive attitude in the face of difficulties, associate with reliable people, and do what is right... these are all simple truths and old-fashioned wisdom. If achieved, one benefits for a lifetime.

Editor/Rocky

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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